{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,2]],"date-time":"2025-09-02T08:40:02Z","timestamp":1756802402066,"version":"3.44.0"},"reference-count":54,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,20]],"date-time":"2025-07-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1752969600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,20]],"date-time":"2025-07-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1752969600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Alzheimer\u2019s Disease"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>There is still need for a better understanding of which specific follow-up medical assessments might offer greater predictive value for diagnostic conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD).<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>To examine the longitudinal predictive importance of follow-up medical assessments to detect diagnostic conversion from MCI to AD.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>\n              A sample of 572 participants from the ADNI database with valid data at baseline medical visit were included. Bayesian hierarchical models were employed to investigate longitudinal predictors of diagnostic conversion in a 36-month medical follow-up cohort, for measures of cognitive function, psychopathological symptoms, and demographical data. An additional 48-month medical follow-up cohort was considered to investigate the predictive importance of cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers (A\u03b2\n              <jats:sub>42<\/jats:sub>\n              \/A\u03b2\n              <jats:sub>40<\/jats:sub>\n              ratio) for diagnostic conversion.\n            <\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE) (\u03b2\u2009=\u2009\u22122.6; 95% HDI: [\u22123.6\u2013\u22121.5]) and Clinical Dementia Rating scale Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) (\u03b2\u2009=\u20095.6; 95% HDI: [4.3\u20137.0]) can predict diagnostic conversion from MCI to AD over a 36-month medical follow-up, with CDR-SB showing the greatest predictive importance in all Bayesian models. Higher scores on CDR-SB were associated with increased risk for a diagnosis conversion, approximately 30% greater probability at 24-month follow-up, and\u2009&gt;\u200950% greater probability at 36-month follow-up.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>The CDR-SB provides a reliable cognitive assessment to detect diagnostic conversion from MCI to AD over a period of 36 months, which is key to help clinicians screening for early diagnosis of AD using affordable non-invasive procedures.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1177\/13872877251360228","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,21]],"date-time":"2025-07-21T05:14:47Z","timestamp":1753074887000},"page":"374-387","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Predicting diagnostic conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease: A Bayesian hierarchical model approach using ADNI patient data"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"107","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8054-6473","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hugo","family":"Senra","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Electronics and Informatics Engineering of Aveiro (IEETA), University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal"},{"name":"School of Health and Social Care, University of Essex, Colchester, UK"}]},{"given":"Maria Concei\u00e7\u00e3o","family":"Costa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal"},{"name":"Center for Research &amp; Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Isabel","family":"Pereira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal"},{"name":"Center for Research &amp; Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Daniel","family":"Agostinho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Coimbra Institute for Biomedical Imaging and Translational Research (CIBIT), ICNAS, Faculty of Medicine, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal"},{"name":"Center for Informatics and Systems (CISUC), University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Miguel","family":"Castelo-Branco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Coimbra Institute for Biomedical Imaging and Translational Research (CIBIT), ICNAS, Faculty of Medicine, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal"}]},{"name":"for the Alzheimer\u2019s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jalz.2011.03.005"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jalz.2011.03.008"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archneur.58.12.1985"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13195-024-01421-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ageing\/afaa228"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2014.13806"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13195-019-0521-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00415-023-12087-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hipo.20626"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuroimage.2011.06.065"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0025446"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13195-022-01136-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3233\/JAD-141605"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/braincomms\/fcae208"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1212\/WNL.0000000000008081"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_17_2","article-title":"Validation of plasma amyloid-\u03b2 42\/40 for detecting Alzheimer disease amyloid plaques","volume":"98","author":"Li Y","year":"2022","unstructured":"Li Y, Schindler SE, Bollinger JG, et al. Validation of plasma amyloid-\u03b2 42\/40 for detecting Alzheimer disease amyloid plaques. Neurology 2022; 98: e688\u2013e699.","journal-title":"Neurology"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13195-019-0485-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3233\/JAD-240689"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12911-018-0710-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/psp4.12974"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/acn3.51196"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-3956(75)90026-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_24_2","first-page":"236","article-title":"The Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale: normative data for older adult controls","volume":"18","author":"Graham DP","year":"2004","unstructured":"Graham DP, Cully JA, Snow AL, et al. The Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale: normative data for older adult controls. Alzheimer Dis Assoc Disord 2004; 18: 236\u2013240.","journal-title":"Alzheimer Dis Assoc Disord"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archneur.65.8.1091"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/13854046.2015.1119312"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.brainres.2023.148423"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm10091809"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10072-022-06068-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2023.0421"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuroimage.2021.118854"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_32_2","unstructured":"Research Consortium. The Alzheimer\u2019s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). https:\/\/adni.loni.usc.edu\/ https:\/\/adni.loni.usc.edu\/ (accessed 26 July 2024)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1300\/J018v05n01_09"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1212\/WNL.44.12.2308"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.psc.2012.01.003"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0891988719882102"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_37_2","unstructured":"Posit Team. RStudio: Integrated Development Environment for R."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyg.2015.01389"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_39_2","first-page":"1","article-title":"Mice: multivariate imputation by chained equations in R","volume":"45","author":"van Buuren S","year":"2011","unstructured":"van Buuren S, Groothuis-Oudshoorn K. Mice: multivariate imputation by chained equations in R. J Stat Softw 2011; 45: 1\u201367.","journal-title":"J Stat Softw"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compbiomed.2014.04.010"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b16018"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/9780429113352"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/1745691614551642"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00031305.2021.1938225"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_45_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/e19100555"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_46_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/oik.05985"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_47_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/rssa.12378"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_48_2","unstructured":"Gelman A. Prior Choice Recommendations https:\/\/github.com\/stan-dev\/stan\/wiki\/Prior-Choice-Recommendations (accessed 28 July 2024)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_49_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v080.i01"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_50_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.32614\/RJ-2018-017"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_51_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jagp.2014.09.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_52_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jalz.2013.02.007"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_53_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biopsych.2023.10.008"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_54_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jagp.2020.01.012"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_55_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0962280218817792"}],"container-title":["Journal of Alzheimer\u2019s Disease"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/13872877251360228","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1177\/13872877251360228","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/13872877251360228","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,2]],"date-time":"2025-09-02T08:01:52Z","timestamp":1756800112000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/13872877251360228"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,20]]},"references-count":54,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,9]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/13872877251360228"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/13872877251360228","relation":{},"ISSN":["1387-2877","1875-8908"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"1387-2877"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1875-8908"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,20]]}}}