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This article models the collision consequences in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks, considering the causation factors and including a novel approach for the emergency management of maritime accidents. The graphical structure lies on domain experts and on previous works, while the conditional probability tables are developed from historical data. Both the graphical structure and parameters are validated using the well-known methods, which reflects that the developed model is reasonable. The merits of the proposed consequence estimation model that considers emergency management includes (1) a detailed description of the collision accident development and (2) consequence estimation result with good accuracy.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/1748006x19825706","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,2,23]],"date-time":"2019-02-23T01:57:48Z","timestamp":1550887068000},"page":"422-436","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["A probabilistic consequence estimation model for collision accidents in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"234","author":[{"given":"Bing","family":"Wu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Intelligent Transport Systems Research Center (ITSC), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China"},{"name":"Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Huibin","family":"Tian","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Intelligent Transport Systems Research Center (ITSC), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China"},{"name":"Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Xinping","family":"Yan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Intelligent Transport Systems Research Center (ITSC), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China"},{"name":"National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety (WTSC), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8570-4263","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"C.","family":"Guedes Soares","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,2,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0951-8320(01)00104-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trd.2013.03.002"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/1748006X13508107"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4031\/MTSJ.49.1.5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/1748006X11399988"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2014.11.020"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2016.04.026"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2010.01.011"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00881.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2012.09.014"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s13437-013-0056-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2013.11.014"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2010.06.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2009.09.010"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.marpolbul.2015.05.027"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2018.06.054"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2017.06.021"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tre.2006.09.002"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_20_2","first-page":"3265","volume-title":"Safety, reliability and risk analysis: theory, methods and applications","author":"Ant\u00e3o P","year":"2009","unstructured":"Ant\u00e3o P, Grande O, Trucco P, et al. 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