{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,20]],"date-time":"2026-02-20T03:35:04Z","timestamp":1771558504538,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":18,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,1]],"date-time":"2019-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1546300800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Therap Adv Gastroenterol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p> Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasingly prevalent within western societies. Its complex and chronic facets in addition to its increasing prevalence place a great economic burden on our healthcare systems. Our aim was to estimate the national prevalence of IBD through predictive models. We used prevalence data which spans the years 2003\u20132007 to estimate prevalence until 2030 by means of four forecasting methods. Prevalence rates are estimated to be 4\u20136-times higher in 2030 when compared with 2003 with an average annual percent change of 5%. IBD is poised to have a substantial impact on healthcare systems in the near future, given its rapidly increasing prevalence. Forecasting methods will allow for a proactive stance on the development of health policies that will be needed to provide high quality and cost-effective care to these patients, while ensuring the economic viability of healthcare systems. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/1756284819860044","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,21]],"date-time":"2019-08-21T11:46:41Z","timestamp":1566388001000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["What forecasting the prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease may tell us about its evolution on a national scale"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Mafalda","family":"Santiago","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"CINTESIS \u2013 Center for Health Technology and Services Research, Porto, Portugal"},{"name":"Grupo de Estudo da Doen\u00e7a Inflamat\u00f3ria Intestinal (GEDII), Porto, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2634-9668","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fernando","family":"Magro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Grupo de Estudo da Doen\u00e7a Inflamat\u00f3ria Intestinal (GEDII), Porto, Portugal"},{"name":"Centro Hospitalar de S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o, Gastroenterology Department, Porto, Portugal"},{"name":"Department of Biomedicine, Unit of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Alameda Prof. Hern\u00e2ni Monteiro 420-319 Porto, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Lu\u00eds","family":"Correia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Grupo de Estudo da Doen\u00e7a Inflamat\u00f3ria Intestinal (GEDII), Porto, Portugal"},{"name":"Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Norte, Hospital Santa Maria, Gastroenterology Department, Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Francisco","family":"Portela","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Grupo de Estudo da Doen\u00e7a Inflamat\u00f3ria Intestinal (GEDII), Porto, Portugal"},{"name":"Centro Hospitalar Universit\u00e1rio de Coimbra, Gastroenterology Department, Coimbra, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Paula","family":"Ministro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Grupo de Estudo da Doen\u00e7a Inflamat\u00f3ria Intestinal (GEDII), Porto, Portugal"},{"name":"Centro Hospitalar Tondela e Viseu, Gastroenterology Department, Viseu, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Paula","family":"Lago","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Grupo de Estudo da Doen\u00e7a Inflamat\u00f3ria Intestinal (GEDII), Porto, Portugal"},{"name":"Centro Hospitalar do Porto, Hospital Geral Santo Ant\u00f3nio, Gastroenterology Department, Porto, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9356-3272","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cl\u00e1udia Camila","family":"Dias","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CINTESIS \u2013 Center for Health Technology and Services Research, Porto, Portugal"},{"name":"Department of Community Medicine, Information and Health Decision Sciences, Faculty of Medicine of the University of Porto, Portugal"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-1756284819860044","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2011.10.001"},{"key":"bibr2-1756284819860044","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)32448-0"},{"key":"bibr3-1756284819860044","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11894-009-0073-8"},{"key":"bibr4-1756284819860044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cosnes J, Cattan S, Blain A, et al. 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