{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,12]],"date-time":"2026-06-12T08:44:08Z","timestamp":1781253848085,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":59,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,1]],"date-time":"2020-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1596240000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,1]],"date-time":"2020-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1596240000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,1]],"date-time":"2020-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1596240000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Earthquake Spectra"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Earthquake early warning (EEW) entails detection of initial earthquake shaking and rapid estimation and notification to users prior to imminent, stronger shaking. EEW (ShakeAlert Phase 1, version 2.0) went operational in California in October 2019 and is coming to the rest of the U.S. West Coast. But what are the technical and social challenges to delivering actionable information on earthquake shaking before it arrives? Although there will be tangible benefits, there are also limitations. Basic seismological principles, alert communication challenges, and potential response actions, as well as substantial lessons learned from the use of EEW in Japan, point to more limited opportunities to warn and protect than perhaps many expect. This is in part because potential warning times vary by region and are influenced by tectonic environment, hypocentral depth, and the fault\u2019s proximity to the alert user. For the U.S. West Coast, particularly for crustal earthquakes, warning times are shorter\u2014and possible mitigation actions are likely to be less effective\u2014than often maintained. Nevertheless, EEW is an additional arrow in the quiver of earthquake information tools available in the service of earthquake risk reduction. What is called for, then, is transparency and balance in the EEW discussion: along with its potential, the acknowledgment of EEW\u2019s inherent and practical limitations is needed. Recognizing these limitations could, in fact, make EEW implementation more successful as part of a holistic earthquake mitigation strategy, where its role among other earthquake information tools is quite natural.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/8755293020911388","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,4,13]],"date-time":"2020-04-13T01:35:41Z","timestamp":1586741741000},"page":"1412-1447","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":110,"title":["Practical limitations of earthquake early warning"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"36","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1454-4514","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"David J","family":"Wald","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"U.S. Geological Survey Golden CO USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_17_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/gssrl.77.3.371"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aar4640"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-earth-053018-060457"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2018EO105095"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/gji\/ggx430"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"BurkettER GivenDG JonesLM(2014)ShakeAlert\u2014An earthquake early warning system for the United States West Coast (ver. 1.2 February 2017): U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2014\u20103083 p.4.","DOI":"10.3133\/fs20143083"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/0220180192"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/0220170138"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.soildyn.2010.06.009"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2016.10.019"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1193\/1.1585998"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1193\/1.4000127"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_14_1","unstructured":"Geohazards International (GHI)(2018)Developing messages for protective actions to take during earthquake shaking. Available at:https:\/\/www.geohaz.org\/protective\u2010actions\u2010during\u2010earthquakes(accessed March 18 2020)"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_15_1","unstructured":"GivenDD AllenRM BaltayAS BodinP CochranES CreagerK GeeLS HaukssonE HeatonTH HellwegM MurrayJR ThomasVI ToomeyD YelinTS(2018)Revised technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert system\u2014An earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Open\u2010File Report 2018\u20101155 p.42."},{"key":"e_1_2_17_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"GivenDD CochranES HeatonT HaukssonE AllenR HellwegP VidaleV BodinP(2014)Technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert production system\u2014An earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Open\u2010File Report 2014\u20101097 p.25.","DOI":"10.3133\/ofr20141097"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/gssrl.68.5.727"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_18_1","unstructured":"GregoryM(2018) BART successfully deploys early earthquake warning system.Daily Californian 6 September. Available at:https:\/\/www.dailycal.org\/2018\/09\/06\/bart\u2010successfully\u2010deploys\u2010early\u2010earthquake\u2010warning\u2010system\/(accessed March 18 2020)."},{"key":"e_1_2_17_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-12233-0_1"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2018GL078079"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1193\/1.3480331"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_22_1","unstructured":"Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)(2008)Investigation of earthquake early warning utilization for the 2008 Iwate\u2010Miyagi Inland earthquake and the earthquake on the northern coast of Iwate prefecture. Available at:https:\/\/www.jma.go.jp\/jma\/press\/0811\/28a\/rikatuyoubessi1.pdf(accessed 29 May 2019)."},{"key":"e_1_2_17_23_1","volume-title":"California Earthquake Early Warning System, Benefit Study","author":"Johnson LA","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-014-1094-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/gssrl.80.5.717"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/0120170085"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_27_1","unstructured":"LinR(2018) Earthquake early warning system will come with some false alarms and missed events.Los Angeles Times 11 Octoberhttps:\/\/www.latimes.com\/local\/lanow\/la\u2010me\u2010ln\u2010earthquake\u2010early\u2010warning\u2010expansion\u201020181011\u2010story.html(accessed March 18 2020)."},{"key":"e_1_2_17_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"LudwigKA RamseyDW WoodNJ PennazAB GodtJW PlantNG LucoN KoenigTA HudnutKW DavisDK BrightPR(2018)Science for a risky world\u2014A U.S. Geological Survey plan for risk research and applications U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1444 p.57.","DOI":"10.3133\/cir1444"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/gssrl.79.5.603"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2017JB014025"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aan5643"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aav2032."},{"key":"e_1_2_17_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2172\/6137387"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-39384-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aaq0504"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_36_1","unstructured":"MussonMW Ceci\u0107I(2012)Intensity and intensity scales. Available at:https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2312\/GFZ.NMSOP\u20102_ch12(accessed March 18 2020)."},{"key":"e_1_2_17_37_1","first-page":"33","article-title":"Japan\u2019s earthquake early warning system: Should it be imported to California?","volume":"41","author":"Nakamura Y","year":"1988","journal-title":"California Geology"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13306"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1193\/052418EQS123M"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/0220180163"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_41_1","first-page":"45","volume-title":"Best Practices in Rapid Alerting for Earthquake Early Warning","author":"Patchett M","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_42_1","unstructured":"PorterK TiffanyA(2019) 2018 Southcentral Alaska earthquake survey findings.State of Alaska Epidemiology Bulletin Department of Health and Social Services. Available at:https:\/\/dhss.alaska.gov\/dph\/Emergency\/Pages\/default.aspx(accessed March 18 2020)"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3133\/sir20175013Q"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1193\/1.2194529"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_45_1","first-page":"576","volume-title":"Diffusion of Innovations","author":"Rogers EM","year":"2003"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_46_1","unstructured":"ShimamuraK KayekiK(2013) How Japan\u2019s bullet trains survived the 2011 Great Tohoku earthquake. In:Proceedings of the 10th Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 2013. Taipei 9\u201012 September."},{"key":"e_1_2_17_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-7717.00088"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/0120010264"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)1527-6988(2000)1:2(119)"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_50_1","unstructured":"StephensB(2018) How Plato foresaw Facebook\u2019s folly.The New York Times 17 November. Available at:https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/11\/16\/opinion\/facebook\u2010zuckerberg\u2010investigation\u2010election.html(accessed March 18 2020)"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/0220150149"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_52_1","first-page":"157","volume-title":"Promoting Seismic Safety: Guidance for Advocates","author":"Tierney K","year":"2004"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_53_1","unstructured":"TriNet(2001)TriNet Policy studies and planning activities in real\u2010time earthquake early warning: Task 1 Report: Survey of potential early warning system users UCLA CPDHR TriNet Task 1 Report March. pp.157\u2013180."},{"key":"e_1_2_17_54_1","unstructured":"United Nations (UN)(2015) Hyogo Framework for Action 2005\u20102015: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters.Final report of the world conference on disaster reduction Kobe 18\u201022 January."},{"key":"e_1_2_17_55_1","unstructured":"United Nations International Office of Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR)(2006) Developing early warning systems: A checklist. In:Proceedings of 3rd international conference on early warning\u2014From concept to action Bonn 27\u201029 March."},{"key":"e_1_2_17_56_1","unstructured":"WoodMM(2018)State\u2010of\u2010the\u2010art knowledge of protective actions appropriate for earthquake early warning report for the Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup (CREW). Available at:https:\/\/crew.org\/page\/2\/(accessed March 18 2020)."},{"key":"e_1_2_17_57_1","unstructured":"WordenCB WaldDJ(2016)ShakeMap Manual. Available at:https:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.5066\/F7D21VPQ(accessed March 18 2020)."},{"key":"e_1_2_17_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/0120110156"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/0220180170"},{"key":"e_1_2_17_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10518-016-9964-x"}],"container-title":["Earthquake Spectra"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/8755293020911388","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1177\/8755293020911388","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/8755293020911388","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,25]],"date-time":"2026-01-25T13:00:05Z","timestamp":1769346005000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1177\/8755293020911388"},"secondary":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pubs.geoscienceworld.org\/earthquake-spectra\/article\/36\/3\/1412\/654060\/practical-limitations-of-earthquake-early-warning","label":"geoscienceworld"}]},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,8]]},"references-count":59,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/8755293020911388"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/8755293020911388","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["8755-2930","1944-8201"],"issn-type":[{"value":"8755-2930","type":"print"},{"value":"1944-8201","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,8]]}}}