{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,4]],"date-time":"2026-10-04T19:26:22Z","timestamp":1791141982494,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":23,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2006,8,1]],"date-time":"2006-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1154390400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Project Management Journal"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2006,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:p> A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk based on theories of decision-making under uncertainty, which won the 2002 Nobel Prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy and risk in project management. Second, it explains inaccuracy in terms of optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Third, the theoretical basis is presented for a promising new method called \u201creference class forecasting,\u201d which achieves accuracy by basing forecasts on actual performance in a reference class of comparable projects and thereby bypassing both optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Fourth, the paper presents the first instance of practical reference class forecasting, which concerns cost forecasts for large transportation infrastructure projects. Finally, potentials for and barriers to reference class forecasting are assessed. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1177\/875697280603700302","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,7,2]],"date-time":"2018-07-02T10:42:38Z","timestamp":1530528158000},"page":"5-15","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":336,"title":["From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"37","author":[{"given":"Bent","family":"Flyvbjerg","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Aalborg University, Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2006,8,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-875697280603700302","volume-title":"Mega-projects: The changing politics of urban public investment.","author":"Altshuler A.","year":"2003"},{"key":"bibr2-875697280603700302","author":"American Planning Association.","year":"2005","journal-title":"JAPA article calls on planners to help end inaccuracies in public project revenue forecasting."},{"key":"bibr3-875697280603700302","first-page":"50","volume":"22","author":"Flyvbjerg B.","year":"2005","journal-title":"Harvard Design Magazine"},{"key":"bibr4-875697280603700302","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781107050891"},{"key":"bibr5-875697280603700302","volume-title":"Procedures for dealing with optimism bias in transport planning: Guidance document.","author":"Flyvbjerg B.","year":"2004"},{"key":"bibr6-875697280603700302","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01944360208976273"},{"key":"bibr7-875697280603700302","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/0144164032000080494a"},{"key":"bibr8-875697280603700302","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01944360508976688"},{"key":"bibr9-875697280603700302","author":"Flyvbjerg B.","journal-title":"Delusion and deception: Two models for explaining executive disaster."},{"key":"bibr10-875697280603700302","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511808098"},{"key":"bibr11-875697280603700302","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0191-2607(84)90006-2"},{"key":"bibr12-875697280603700302","volume-title":"The green book: Appraisal and evaluation in central government, treasury guidance.","author":"Treasury HM","year":"2003"},{"key":"bibr13-875697280603700302","volume-title":"Supplementary green book guidance: Optimism bias.","author":"Treasury HM","year":"2003"},{"key":"bibr14-875697280603700302","first-page":"18","volume":"150","author":"Kahneman D.","year":"1994","journal-title":"Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics"},{"key":"bibr15-875697280603700302","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.39.1.17"},{"key":"bibr16-875697280603700302","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1914185"},{"key":"bibr17-875697280603700302","first-page":"12","volume-title":"Studies in the management sciences: Forecasting","author":"Kahneman D.","year":"1979"},{"key":"bibr18-875697280603700302","first-page":"56","author":"Lovallo D.","year":"2003","journal-title":"Harvard Business Review"},{"key":"bibr19-875697280603700302","volume-title":"Review of large public procurement in the UK.","author":"MacDonald M.","year":"2002"},{"key":"bibr20-875697280603700302","volume-title":"Scottish parliament, Edinburgh tram line 2 review of business case.","author":"Ove Arup &amp; Partners Scotland.","year":"2004"},{"key":"bibr21-875697280603700302","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/08956308.2004.11671649"},{"issue":"4","key":"bibr22-875697280603700302","first-page":"476","volume":"55","author":"Wachs M.","year":"1989","journal-title":"Journal of the American Planning Association"},{"key":"bibr23-875697280603700302","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5840\/bpej199091\/215"}],"container-title":["Project Management Journal"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/875697280603700302","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/875697280603700302","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,1]],"date-time":"2025-03-01T05:40:23Z","timestamp":1740807623000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/875697280603700302"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2006,8]]},"references-count":23,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2006,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1177\/875697280603700302"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/875697280603700302","relation":{},"ISSN":["8756-9728","1938-9507"],"issn-type":[{"value":"8756-9728","type":"print"},{"value":"1938-9507","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2006,8]]}}}