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Multi-compartmental models are the tool of choice for simulating the processing of zirconium. Although easily interpretable, determining the exact compartment structure and interaction mechanisms is generally daunting. In the context of observing the dynamics of multiple compartments, Bayesian methods provide efficient tools for model inference and selection.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>We are the first to apply a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to compute Bayes factors for the evaluation of two competing models for zirconium processing in the human body after ingestion. Based on <jats:italic>in vivo<\/jats:italic> measurements of human plasma and urine levels we were able to show that a recently published model is superior to the standard model of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The Bayes factors were estimated by means of the numerically stable <jats:italic>thermodynamic integration<\/jats:italic> in combination with a recently developed copula-based Metropolis-Hastings sampler.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>In contrast to the standard model the novel model predicts lower accretion of zirconium in bones. This results in lower levels of noxious doses for exposed individuals. Moreover, the Bayesian approach allows for retrospective dose assessment, including credible intervals for the initially ingested zirconium, in a significantly more reliable fashion than previously possible. All methods presented here are readily applicable to many modeling tasks in systems biology.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/1752-0509-6-95","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,8,5]],"date-time":"2012-08-05T20:13:59Z","timestamp":1344197639000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["Bayesian model selection validates a biokinetic model for zirconium processing in humans"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"6","author":[{"given":"Daniel","family":"Schmidl","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sabine","family":"Hug","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Wei Bo","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Matthias B","family":"Greiter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fabian J","family":"Theis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012,8,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"1012_CR1","volume-title":"Radiologische Auswirkungen aus den kerntechnischen Unf\u00e4llen in Fukushima vom 11.3.2011","author":"Eidgen\u00f6ssisches Nuklearsicherheitsinspektorat Informationsdienst","year":"2011","unstructured":"Eidgen\u00f6ssisches Nuklearsicherheitsinspektorat Informationsdienst: Radiologische Auswirkungen aus den kerntechnischen Unf\u00e4llen in Fukushima vom 11.3.2011. 2011, Brugg, ENSI, Industriestrasse 19 5200 Brugg, Switzerland, http:\/\/www.ensi.ch\/de\/dossiers\/fukushima-2\/ensi-bericht-zu-fukushima-iv-radiologische-auswirkungen\/"},{"key":"1012_CR2","volume-title":"Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation","author":"United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation","year":"2008","unstructured":"United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation: Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation. 2008, United Nations Publications, New York"},{"key":"1012_CR3","volume-title":"Limits for Intakes of Radionuclides by Workers Part 1. 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