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Countries were divided into three outbreak levels: high, middle, and low. Trends analysis was performed by calculating the growth rate, and then country grouping was implemented using group-based trajectory modeling on the three levels. Individual countries from each group were also chosen to further disclose the outbreak situations using two predicting models: the logistic growth model and the SEIR model.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>All 187 observed countries' trajectory subgroups were identified using two grouping strategies: with and without population consideration. By measuring epidemic trends and predicting the epidemic size and peak of individual countries, our study found that the logistic growth model generally estimated a smaller epidemic size than the SEIR model. According to SEIR modeling, confirmed cases in each country would take an average of 9\u201312\u00a0months to reach the outbreak peak from the day the first case occurred. Additionally, the average number of cases at the peak time will reach approximately 10\u201320% of the countries\u2019 populations, and the countries with high trends and a high predicted size must pay special attention and implement public health interventions in a timely manner.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>We demonstrated comprehensive observations and predictions of the COVID-19 outbreak in 187 countries using a comprehensive modeling method. The methods proposed in this study can measure COVID-19 development from multiple perspectives and are generalizable to other epidemic diseases. Furthermore, the methods also provide reliable and timely decision-making support for public health management.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12911-023-02213-4","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,15]],"date-time":"2023-09-15T13:01:54Z","timestamp":1694782914000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Measuring the worldwide spread of COVID-19 using a comprehensive modeling method"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"21","author":[{"given":"Xiang","family":"Zhou","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xudong","family":"Ma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sifa","family":"Gao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yingying","family":"Ma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jianwei","family":"Gao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Huizhen","family":"Jiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Weiguo","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Na","family":"Hong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6798-1761","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yun","family":"Long","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Longxiang","family":"Su","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"2213_CR1","unstructured":"WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 11 March 2020 [https:\/\/www.who.int\/dg\/speeches\/detail\/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020]."},{"key":"2213_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"214","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2020.01.050","volume":"92","author":"S Zhao","year":"2020","unstructured":"Zhao S, Lin Q, Ran J, Musa SS, Yang G, Wang W, Lou Y, Gao D, Yang L, He D. 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