{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,19]],"date-time":"2025-09-19T08:58:16Z","timestamp":1758272296686,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,6]],"date-time":"2021-03-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1614988800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,6]],"date-time":"2021-03-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1614988800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J Cloud Comp"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Herein, we present a novel topic variation detection method that combines a topic extraction method and a change-point detection method. It extracts topics from time-series text data as the feature of each time and detects change points from the changing patterns of the extracted topics. We applied this method to analyze the valuable, albeit underutilized, text dataset containing the Japanese Prime Minister\u2019s (PM\u2019s) detailed daily activities for over 32\u2009years. The proposed method and data provide novel insights into the empirical analyses of political business cycles, which is a classical issue in economics and political science. For instance, as our approach enables us to directly observe and analyze the PM\u2019s actions, it can overcome the empirical challenges encountered by previous research owing to the unobservability of the PM\u2019s behavior. Our empirical observations are primarily consistent with recent theoretical developments regarding this topic. Despite limitations, by employing a completely novel method and dataset, our approach enhances our understanding and provides new insights into this classic issue.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1186\/s13677-020-00197-4","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,6]],"date-time":"2021-03-06T09:04:11Z","timestamp":1615021451000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Time-series topic analysis using singular spectrum transformation for detecting political business cycles"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9885-0390","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sota","family":"Kato","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Takafumi","family":"Nakanishi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Budrul","family":"Ahsan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Hirokazu","family":"Shimauchi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"197_CR1","first-page":"993","volume":"3","author":"DM Blei","year":"2003","unstructured":"Blei DM, Ng AY, Jordan MI (2003) Latent Dirichlet allocation. J Mach Learn Res 3:993\u20131022","journal-title":"J Mach Learn Res"},{"key":"197_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1145\/1143844.1143859","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 23rd international conference on machine learning","author":"DM Blei","year":"2006","unstructured":"Blei DM, Lafferty JD (2006) Dynamic topic models. In: Proceedings of the 23rd international conference on machine learning, pp 113\u2013120"},{"key":"197_CR3","unstructured":"Cargill TF, Hutchinson MM (1991) Political business cycles with endogenous election timing: evidence from Japan. The MIT Press. Rev Econ Stat 73(4):733\u2013739"},{"key":"197_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1100","DOI":"10.2307\/2111545","volume":"37","author":"A Chowdhury","year":"1993","unstructured":"Chowdhury A (1993) Political surfing over economic waves: parliamentary election timing in India. Am J Political Sci 37:1100\u20131118","journal-title":"Am J Political Sci"},{"issue":"1\u20132","key":"197_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"235","DOI":"10.1007\/s11127-016-0313-z","volume":"166","author":"E Dubois","year":"2016","unstructured":"Dubois E (2016) Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus. Public Choice 166(1\u20132):235\u2013259","journal-title":"Public Choice"},{"key":"197_CR6","first-page":"353","volume-title":"Proceedings of Human Language Technologies: The 2009 Annual Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics","author":"J Eisenstein","year":"2009","unstructured":"Eisenstein J (2009) Hierarchical text segmentation from multi-scale lexical cohesion. In: Proceedings of Human Language Technologies: The 2009 Annual Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pp 353\u2013361"},{"key":"197_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hearst MA (1994) Multi-paragraph segmentation of expository text. In: Proceedings of the 32nd annual meeting on Association for Computational Linguistics. Association for Computational Linguistics, USA, pp 9\u201316. https:\/\/dl.acm.org\/doi\/proceedings\/10.5555\/981732","DOI":"10.3115\/981732.981734"},{"key":"197_CR8","unstructured":"Hoffman MD, Blei DM, Bach FR (2010) Online learning for latent Dirichlet allocation. NIPS, Curran Associates, Inc., USA, pp 856\u2013864. https:\/\/papers.nips.cc\/paper\/3902-online-learning-for-latent-dirichlet-allocation"},{"key":"197_CR9","unstructured":"Hogben L (ed) (2014) Handbook of linear algebra, 2nd edn. Chapman and Hall\/CRC, USA. https:\/\/www.taylorfrancis.com\/books\/9780429185533"},{"key":"197_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"832","DOI":"10.1145\/2020408.2020551","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 17th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining","author":"L Hong","year":"2011","unstructured":"Hong L, Dom B, Gurumurthy S, Tsioutsiouliklis K (2011) A time-dependent topic model for multiple text streams. In: Proceedings of the 17th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, pp 832\u2013840"},{"key":"197_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"571","DOI":"10.1137\/1.9781611972757.63","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 2005 SIAM International Conference on Data Mining","author":"T Id\u00e9","year":"2005","unstructured":"Id\u00e9 T, Inoue K (2005) Knowledge discovery from heterogeneous dynamic systems using change-point correlations. In: Proceedings of the 2005 SIAM International Conference on Data Mining, pp 571\u2013575"},{"key":"197_CR12","first-page":"1960","volume-title":"Eleventh World Congress of the International Political Science Association, Moscow","author":"T Inoguchi","year":"1979","unstructured":"Inoguchi T (1979) Political surfing over economic waves: a simple model of the Japanese political economic system in comparative perspective. In: Eleventh World Congress of the International Political Science Association, Moscow, pp 1960\u20131980"},{"issue":"3","key":"197_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"233","DOI":"10.1016\/0165-1765(88)90176-0","volume":"27","author":"T Ito","year":"1988","unstructured":"Ito T, Park JH (1988) Political business cycles in the parliamentary system. Econ Lett 27(3):233\u2013238","journal-title":"Econ Lett"},{"issue":"1","key":"197_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"135","DOI":"10.1016\/1049-0078(90)90011-O","volume":"1","author":"T Ito","year":"1990","unstructured":"Ito T (1990) The timing of elections and political business cycles in Japan. J Asian Econ 1(1):135\u2013156","journal-title":"J Asian Econ"},{"key":"197_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"203","DOI":"10.1145\/2484028.2484062","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 36th international ACM SIGIR conference on Research and Development in information retrieval","author":"S Jameel","year":"2013","unstructured":"Jameel S, Lam W (2013) An unsupervised topic segmentation model incorporating word order. In: Proceedings of the 36th international ACM SIGIR conference on Research and Development in information retrieval, pp 203\u2013212"},{"key":"197_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1515\/9780804765602","volume-title":"MITI and the Japanese miracle","author":"C Johnson","year":"1982","unstructured":"Johnson C (1982) MITI and the Japanese miracle. Stanford University Press, Stanford"},{"key":"197_CR17","volume-title":"How valuable is Prime Minister's dissolution option?: Black-Scholes approach to parliamentary dissolution","author":"S Kato","year":"2013","unstructured":"Kato S, Inui M (2013) How valuable is Prime Minister's dissolution option?: Black-Scholes approach to parliamentary dissolution. APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper. SSRN: https:\/\/ssrn.com\/abstract=2303520."},{"key":"197_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"85","DOI":"10.1145\/3365109.3368787","volume-title":"Proceedings of the IEEE\/ACM 6th international conference on big data computing, applications and technologies","author":"S Kato","year":"2019","unstructured":"Kato S, Nakanishi T, Shimauchi H, Ahsan B (2019) Topic variation detection method for detecting political business cycles. In: Proceedings of the IEEE\/ACM 6th international conference on big data computing, applications and technologies, pp 85\u201393"},{"issue":"1","key":"197_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1017\/S0003055405051464","volume":"99","author":"MA Kayser","year":"2005","unstructured":"Kayser MA (2005) Who surfs, who manipulates? The determinants of opportunistic election timing and electorally motivated economic intervention. Am Political Sci Rev 99(1):17\u201327","journal-title":"Am Political Sci Rev"},{"key":"197_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.2307\/422311","volume":"22","author":"M Kohno","year":"1990","unstructured":"Kohno M, Nishizawa Y (1990) A study of the electoral business cycle in Japan: elections and government spending on public construction. Comparative Politics 22:151\u2013166","journal-title":"Comparative Politics"},{"key":"197_CR21","first-page":"230","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 2004 conference on empirical methods in natural language processing","author":"T Kudo","year":"2004","unstructured":"Kudo T, Yamamoto K, Matsumoto Y (2004) Applying conditional random fields to Japanese morphological analysis. In: Proceedings of the 2004 conference on empirical methods in natural language processing, pp 230\u2013237"},{"key":"197_CR22","volume-title":"\u014ckurash\u014d t\u014dsei no seiji keizaigaku (the political economy of the Ministry of Finance's control)","author":"M Mabuchi","year":"1994","unstructured":"Mabuchi M (1994) \u014ckurash\u014d t\u014dsei no seiji keizaigaku (the political economy of the Ministry of Finance's control). Ch\u016b\u014d K\u014dronsha, Tokyo"},{"issue":"1","key":"197_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5287","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0307626100","volume":"101","author":"KK Mane","year":"2004","unstructured":"Mane KK, B\u00f6rner K (2004) Mapping topics and topic bursts in PNAS. Proc Natl Acad Sci 101(1):5287\u20135290","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci"},{"key":"197_CR24","unstructured":"Martin GJ, McCrain J (2019) Local news and national politics. American Political Science Review 113(2):372\u2013384"},{"key":"197_CR25","first-page":"262","volume-title":"Proceedings of the Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing","author":"D Mimno","year":"2011","unstructured":"Mimno D, Wallach HM, Talley E, Leenders M, McCallum A (2011) Optimizing semantic coherence in topic models. In: Proceedings of the Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing, pp 262\u2013272"},{"key":"#cr-split#-197_CR26.1","unstructured":"Newton K (1993) Caring and competence: the long, long campaign. In: Kind A"},{"key":"#cr-split#-197_CR26.2","unstructured":"(ed) Britain at the polls, 1992. Chatham House Publishers, New Jersey, pp 129-170"},{"key":"197_CR27","unstructured":"Nippon H\u014ds\u014d Ky\u014dkai. Retrieved Mar 1, 2019. shush\u014d d\u014dsei nan no tameni, from https:\/\/www3.nhk.or.jp\/news\/web_tokushu\/2018_0712.html. Retrieved Mar 1 2019"},{"issue":"2","key":"197_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"169","DOI":"10.2307\/2296528","volume":"42","author":"WD Nordhaus","year":"1975","unstructured":"Nordhaus WD (1975) The political business cycle. Rev Econ Stud 42(2):169\u2013190","journal-title":"Rev Econ Stud"},{"key":"197_CR29","volume-title":"Proceedings of the LREC 2010 workshop on new challenges for NLP frameworks","author":"R Rehurek","year":"2010","unstructured":"Rehurek R, Sojka P (2010) Software framework for topic modelling with large corpora. In: Proceedings of the LREC 2010 workshop on new challenges for NLP frameworks"},{"key":"197_CR30","first-page":"37","volume-title":"Proceedings of ACL 2012 student research workshop","author":"M Riedl","year":"2012","unstructured":"Riedl M, Biemann C (2012) TopicTiling: a text segmentation algorithm based on LDA. In: Proceedings of ACL 2012 student research workshop, pp 37\u201342"},{"issue":"1","key":"197_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.2307\/2297526","volume":"55","author":"K Rogoff","year":"1988","unstructured":"Rogoff K, Sibert A (1988) Elections and macroeconomic policy cycles. Rev Econ Stud 55(1):1\u201316","journal-title":"Rev Econ Stud"},{"key":"197_CR32","volume-title":"Jimint\u014d ch\u014dki seiken no seiji keizaigaku: Rieki y\u016bd\u014d seiji no jiko mujun (the political economy under the LDP's longtime rule: the paradox of patronage-driven politics)","author":"J Saito","year":"2010","unstructured":"Saito J (2010) Jimint\u014d ch\u014dki seiken no seiji keizaigaku: Rieki y\u016bd\u014d seiji no jiko mujun (the political economy under the LDP's longtime rule: the paradox of patronage-driven politics). Keis\u014d Shob\u014d"},{"key":"197_CR33","volume-title":"Neologism dictionary based on the language resources on the Web for Mecab","author":"T Sato","year":"2015","unstructured":"Sato T (2015) Neologism dictionary based on the language resources on the Web for Mecab. https:\/\/github.com\/neologd\/mecab-unidic-neologd"},{"issue":"3","key":"197_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"836","DOI":"10.1086\/685447","volume":"78","author":"P Schleiter","year":"2016","unstructured":"Schleiter P, Tavits M (2016) The electoral benefits of opportunistic election timing. J Politics 78(3):836\u2013850","journal-title":"J Politics"},{"issue":"1","key":"197_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"79","DOI":"10.1017\/S0007123400007079","volume":"25","author":"KA Schultz","year":"1995","unstructured":"Schultz KA (1995) The politics of the political business cycle. Br J Political Sci 25(1):79\u201399","journal-title":"Br J Political Sci"},{"issue":"3","key":"197_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"397","DOI":"10.1017\/S0007123403000188","volume":"33","author":"A Smith","year":"2003","unstructured":"Smith A (2003) Election timing in majoritarian parliaments. Br J Political Sci 33(3):397\u2013418","journal-title":"Br J Political Sci"},{"key":"197_CR37","volume-title":"Election timing","author":"A Smith","year":"2004","unstructured":"Smith A (2004) Election timing. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge"},{"key":"197_CR38","first-page":"269","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 46th annual meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics on human language technologies: short papers","author":"Q Sun","year":"2008","unstructured":"Sun Q, Li R, Luo D, Wu X (2008) Text segmentation with LDA-based fisher kernel. In: Proceedings of the 46th annual meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics on human language technologies: short papers, pp 269\u2013227"},{"issue":"3\u20134","key":"197_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"241","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1004951426469","volume":"96","author":"K Yoo","year":"1998","unstructured":"Yoo K (1998) Intervention analysis of electoral tax cycle: the case of Japan. Public Choice 96(3\u20134):241\u2013258","journal-title":"Public Choice"}],"container-title":["Journal of Cloud Computing"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s13677-020-00197-4.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1186\/s13677-020-00197-4\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s13677-020-00197-4.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,20]],"date-time":"2022-12-20T11:40:01Z","timestamp":1671536401000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journalofcloudcomputing.springeropen.com\/articles\/10.1186\/s13677-020-00197-4"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,6]]},"references-count":40,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]}},"alternative-id":["197"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s13677-020-00197-4","relation":{},"ISSN":["2192-113X"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"2192-113X"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,6]]},"assertion":[{"value":"15 April 2020","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"1 September 2020","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"6 March 2021","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"N\/A.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"21"}}