{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,16]],"date-time":"2026-09-16T21:57:32Z","timestamp":1789595852560,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,2,7]],"date-time":"2012-02-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1328572800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/2.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,2,7]],"date-time":"2012-02-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1328572800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/2.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Arthritis Res Ther"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract\n<\/jats:title><jats:sec>\n                        <jats:title>Introduction\n<\/jats:title>\n                        <jats:p>At present, there is no reliable tool for predicting disease outcome in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We previously demonstrated an association between specific baseline biomarkers\/clinical measures including matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP-3) and 2-year radiographic progression in patients with RA. This study further evaluates the predictive capability of these baseline variables with outcome extended over 8-years.<\/jats:p>\n                     <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                        <jats:title>Methods\n<\/jats:title>\n                        <jats:p>Fifty-eight of the original cohort (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic> = 118) had radiographic progression from baseline to mean 8.2-years determined using the van der Heijde modified Sharp method. The contribution of each predictor variable towards radiographic progression was assessed with univariate and multivariate analyses.<\/jats:p>\n                     <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                        <jats:title>Results\n<\/jats:title>\n                        <jats:p>Traditional factors (including erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP), and rheumatoid factor) and biomarkers of tissue destruction (including MMP-3, C-telopeptide of type II collagen, cartilage oligomeric matrix protein, and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1) measured at baseline were associated with radiographic progression at endpoint. Multivariate logistic regression identified anti-CCP seropositivity [OR 9.29, 95%CI: 2.29-37.64], baseline elevated MMP-3 [OR 8.25, 95%CI: 2.54-26.78] and baseline radiographic damage [OR 5.83, 95%CI: 1.88-18.10] as the strongest independent predictors of radiographic progression. A model incorporating these variables had a predictive accuracy of 0.87, assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.<\/jats:p>\n                     <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                        <jats:title>Conclusion\n<\/jats:title>\n                        <jats:p>In our cohort with onset of RA symptoms &lt; 2-years, multivariate analysis identified anti-CCP status and baseline MMP-3 as the strongest independent predictors of radiographic disease outcome at 8.2-years. This finding suggests determination of baseline MMP-3, in conjunction with traditional serologic markers, may provide additional prognostic information for patients with RA. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of continued research into a broad range of biomarkers as potential predictors of joint damage.<\/jats:p>\n                     <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/ar3734","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,2,7]],"date-time":"2012-02-07T17:15:05Z","timestamp":1328634905000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":72,"title":["Baseline serum MMP-3 levels in patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis are still independently predictive of radiographic progression in a longitudinal observational cohort at 8 years follow up"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Mark","family":"Houseman","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Catherine","family":"Potter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicola","family":"Marshall","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rachel","family":"Lakey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tim","family":"Cawston","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ian","family":"Griffiths","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steven","family":"Young-Min","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John D","family":"Isaacs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012,2,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"3449_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"59","DOI":"10.1016\/j.berh.2008.11.006","volume":"23","author":"B Combe","year":"2009","unstructured":"Combe B: Progression in early rheumatoid arthritis. 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