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The aim of this study was to estimate the death rate due to MI in Iran by artificial neural network (ANN).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>In this ecological study, the prevalence of diabetes, hypercholesterolemia over 200, hypertension, overweight and obesity were estimated for the years 2017\u20132025. ANN and Linear regression model were used. Also, Specialists were also asked to predict the death rate due to MI by considering the conditions of 3 conditions (optimistic, pessimistic, and probable), and the predicted process was compared with the modeling process.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Death rate due to MI in Iran is expected to decrease on average, while there will be a significant decrease in the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia 1.031 (\u2212\u200924.81, 26.88). Also, the trend of diabetes 10.48 (111.45, \u2212\u2009132.42), blood pressure \u2212\u2009110.48 (\u2212\u2009174.04, \u2212\u200946.91) and obesity and overweight \u2212\u200935.84 (\u2212\u200918.66, \u2212\u20095.02) are slowly increasing. MI death rate in Iran is higher in men but is decreasing on average. Experts' forecasts are different and have predicted a completely upward trend.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>The trend predicted by the modeling shows that the death rate due to MI will decrease in the future with a low slope. Improving the infrastructure for providing preventive services to reduce the risk factors for cardiovascular disease in the community is one of the priority measures in the current situation.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12872-022-02871-8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,7]],"date-time":"2022-10-07T13:04:39Z","timestamp":1665147879000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Estimation of myocardial infarction death in Iran: artificial neural network"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"22","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3284-9749","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mohammad","family":"Asghari-Jafarabadi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6595-4150","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kamal","family":"Gholipour","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1626-4505","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rahim","family":"Khodayari-Zarnaq","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2316-4326","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mehrdad","family":"Azmin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7753-0988","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gisoo","family":"Alizadeh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,7]]},"reference":[{"issue":"7","key":"2871_CR1","first-page":"1","volume":"19","author":"R Jagannathan","year":"2019","unstructured":"Jagannathan R, Patel SA, Ali MK, et al. 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This manuscript is based on analysis of existing data obtained from the STEPs designed to estimate the mean and prevalence of non-communicable risk factors in province level. NASBOD study provides information that can be used to assess the progress made in the health status of a province and\/or the relative performance across all provinces over time. People who took part in the studies gave free and informed consent in writing, knowing that they could choose not to answer or participate in any part of the study or to withdraw from the study at any time with no repercussions. They were informed that information collected in the research could be used by the team in other related analyses. All methods were carried out in relevant regulations and guidelines.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"The authors declare that they have no competing interests.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"438"}}