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The aim of this study is to identify the factors that anticipate the future inclusion of community-dwelling individuals aged \u226570\u2009years in home care programmes (HC) and nursing homes (NH), and to develop the corresponding prediction models.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A prospective cohort study was conducted in 23 primary healthcare centers located in Catalonia, Spain, with an eight-year follow-up (2005\u20132013). The cohort was made up of 616 individuals. Data collection included a baseline multidimensional assessment carried out by primary health care professionals. Outcome variables were collected during follow-up by consulting electronic healthcare records, and the Central Registry of Catalonia for mortality. A prognostic index for a HC and NH at 8 years was estimated for each patient. Death prior to these events was considered a competing risk event, and Fine\u2013Gray regression models were used.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>At baseline, mean age was 76.4\u2009years and 55.5% were women. During follow-up, 19.2% entered a HC program, 8.2% a NH, and 15.4% died without presenting an event. Of those who entered a NH, 31.5% had previously been in a HC program.<\/jats:p>\n                    <jats:p>Multivariate models for a HC and NH showed that the risk of a HC entry was associated with older age, dependence on the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, and slow gait measured by Timed-up-and-go test. An increased risk of being admitted to a NH was associated with older age, dependence on the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, number of prescriptions, and the presence of social risk.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Prognostic models based on comprehensive geriatric assessments can predict the need for the commencement of HC and NH admission in community-dwelling older adults. Our findings underline the necessity to measure functional capacity, mobility, number of prescriptions, and social aspects of older adults in primary healthcare centers. In such a setting they can be offered longitudinal holistic assessments so as to benefit from preventive actions in order to remain independent in the community for as long as possible.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12877-020-01683-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,6]],"date-time":"2020-08-06T08:04:41Z","timestamp":1596701081000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":32,"title":["The impact of frailty on admission to home care services and nursing homes: eight-year follow-up of a community-dwelling, older adult, Spanish cohort"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"20","author":[{"given":"Francisco","family":"Cegri","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2409-1731","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Francesc","family":"Orfila","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rosa M.","family":"Abellana","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mar\u00eda","family":"Pastor-Valero","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"1683_CR1","unstructured":"United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 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