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Epidemiologic characteristics were recorded. Blood was collected and stimulated with\n                      <jats:italic>Mycobacterium tuberculosis<\/jats:italic>\n                      culture filtrate protein, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF-\u03b1), interferon gamma (IFN-\u03b3), and interleukin 10 (IL-10) concentrations were determined using immunoassays.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Of 1272 contacts, 41 (3.2%) were diagnosed with tuberculosis before or\u00a0\n                      <jats:underline>&lt;<\/jats:underline>\n                      \u00a030\u2009days after blood collection (co-prevalent tuberculosis) and 19 (1.5%) during subsequent four-year follow-up (incident tuberculosis). Compared with contacts without tuberculosis, those with co-prevalent tuberculosis had higher median baseline TNF-\u03b1 and IFN-\u03b3 concentrations (in pg\/mL, TNF-\u03b1 129 versus 71,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u2009.01; IFN-\u03b3 231 versus 27,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u2009.001), and those who subsequently developed incident tuberculosis had higher median baseline TNF-\u03b1 concentrations (in pg\/mL, 257 vs. 71,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u2009.05). In multivariate analysis, contact age\u2009&lt;\u200915\u2009years, US\/Canadian birth, and IFN or TNF concentrations &gt; the median were associated with co-prevalent tuberculosis (\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u2009.01 for each); female sex (\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u2009.03) and smoking (\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u2009.01) were associated with incident tuberculosis. In algorithms combining young age, positive skin test results, and elevated CFPS TNF-\u03b1, IFN-\u03b3, and IL-10 responses, the positive predictive values for co-prevalent and incident tuberculosis were 40 and 25%, respectively.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Cytokine concentrations and epidemiologic factors at the time of contact investigation may predict co-prevalent and incident tuberculosis.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-020-05185-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,31]],"date-time":"2020-07-31T05:03:44Z","timestamp":1596171824000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Predictive value of TNF-\u03b1, IFN-\u03b3, and IL-10 for tuberculosis among recently exposed contacts in the 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