{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T02:28:24Z","timestamp":1787020104064,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,25]],"date-time":"2021-11-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1637798400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,25]],"date-time":"2021-11-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1637798400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012411","name":"Alborz University of Medical Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012411","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["BMC Infect Dis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iran were reported in Qom city. Subsequently, the neighboring provinces and gradually all 31 provinces of Iran were involved. This study aimed to investigate the case fatility rate, basic reproductive number in different period of epidemic, projection of daily and cumulative incidence cases and also spatiotemporal mapping of SARS-CoV-2 in Alborz province, Iran.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A confirmed case of COVID-19 infection was defined as a case with a positive result of viral nucleic acid testing in respiratory specimens. Serial interval (SI) was fitted by gamma distribution and considered the likelihood-based R0 using a branching process with Poisson likelihood. Seven days average of cases, deaths, doubling times and CFRs used to draw smooth charts. kernel density tool in Arc GIS (Esri) software has been employed to compute hot spot area of the study site.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The maximum-likelihood value of R0 was 2.88 (95%, CI: 2.57\u20133.23) in the early 14\u00a0days of epidemic. The case fatility rate for Alborz province (Iran) on March 10, was 8.33% (95%, CI:6.3\u201311), and by April 20, it had an increasing trend and reached 12.9% (95%,CI:11.5\u201314.4). The doubling time has been increasing from about two days and then reached about 97\u00a0days on April 20, 2020, which shows the slowdown in the spread rate of the disease. Also, from March 26 to April 2, 2020 the whole Geographical area of Karj city was almost affected by SARS-CoV-2.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The R0 of COVID-19 in Alborz province was substantially high at the beginning of the epidemic, but with preventive measures and public education and GIS based monitoring of the cases,it has been reduced to 1.19 within two months. This reduction highpoints the attainment of preventive measures in place, however we must be ready for any second epidemic waves during the next months.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-021-06870-6","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,25]],"date-time":"2021-11-25T07:03:08Z","timestamp":1637823788000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Epidemic size, trend and spatiotemporal mapping of SARS-CoV-2 using geographical information system in Alborz Province, Iran"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"21","author":[{"given":"Kourosh","family":"Kabir","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ali","family":"Taherinia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Davoud","family":"Ashourloo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ahmad","family":"Khosravi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hossien","family":"Karim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hamid","family":"Salehi Shahrabi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mojtaba","family":"Hedayat Yaghoobi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alireza","family":"Soleimani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zaynab","family":"Siami","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mohammad","family":"Noorisepehr","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ramin","family":"Tajbakhsh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mohammad Reza","family":"Maghsoudi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mehran","family":"Lak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Parham","family":"Mardi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Behnaz","family":"Nouri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mohammad","family":"Mohammadzadeh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mehdi","family":"Azimzadeh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9228-4615","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mahmood","family":"Bakhtiyari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,25]]},"reference":[{"issue":"10223","key":"6870_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"507","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30211-7","volume":"395","author":"N Chen","year":"2020","unstructured":"Chen N, et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study. Lancet. 2020;395(10223):507\u201313.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"2","key":"6870_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"74","DOI":"10.24171\/j.phrp.2020.11.2.03","volume":"11","author":"MA Khafaie","year":"2020","unstructured":"Khafaie MA, Rahim F. Cross-country comparison of case fatality rates of COVID-19\/SARS-COV-2. Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2020;11(2):74\u201380.","journal-title":"Osong Public Health Res Perspect"},{"key":"6870_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3149020","DOI":"10.1155\/2020\/3149020","volume":"2020","author":"H Hasani","year":"2020","unstructured":"Hasani H, et al. The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): a PRISMA systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical and paraclinical characteristics. Biomed Res Int. 2020;2020:3149020.","journal-title":"Biomed Res Int"},{"key":"6870_CR4","unstructured":"COVID-19 daily epidemiology journal. http:\/\/corona.behdasht.gov.ir\/files\/site1\/files\/Factsheet-12.23-En.pdf. Accessed 24 Mar 2020."},{"key":"6870_CR5","unstructured":"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report\u201484. https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/situation-reports\/20200413-sitrep-84-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=44f511ab_2."},{"issue":"1","key":"6870_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1177\/096228029300200103","volume":"2","author":"K Dietz","year":"1993","unstructured":"Dietz K. The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases. Stat Methods Med Res. 1993;2(1):23\u201341.","journal-title":"Stat Methods Med Res"},{"key":"6870_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajog.2020.03.021","author":"P Dashraath","year":"2020","unstructured":"Dashraath P, et al. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and pregnancy. Am J Obstet Gynecol. 2020. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ajog.2020.03.021.","journal-title":"Am J Obstet Gynecol"},{"issue":"1","key":"6870_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-7-8","volume":"7","author":"S Gao","year":"2008","unstructured":"Gao S, et al. Online GIS services for mapping and sharing disease information. Int J Health Geogr. 2008;7(1):8.","journal-title":"Int J Health Geogr"},{"issue":"1","key":"6870_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S79","DOI":"10.1186\/1751-0147-42-S1-S79","volume":"42","author":"M Norstr\u00f8m","year":"2001","unstructured":"Norstr\u00f8m M. Geographical information system (GIS) as a tool in surveillance and monitoring of animal diseases. Acta Vet Scand. 2001;42(1):S79.","journal-title":"Acta Vet Scand"},{"issue":"13","key":"6870_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1199","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2001316","volume":"382","author":"Q Li","year":"2020","unstructured":"Li Q, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus\u2013infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(13):1199\u20131207.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"6870_CR11","unstructured":"Jombart T, Nouvellet P, Bhatia S, Kamvar ZN, Taylor T, Ghozzi S. Projections: Project Future Case Incidence. [Data Collection]. The Comprehensive R Archive Network. 2020. https:\/\/cran.r-project.org\/package=projections."},{"key":"6870_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2020.02.033","volume":"93","author":"S Zhang","year":"2020","unstructured":"Zhang S, et al. Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: a data-driven analysis. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;93:201\u20134.","journal-title":"Int J Infect Dis"},{"key":"6870_CR13","unstructured":"WHO. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report\u201431. 2020; https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/situation-reports\/20200220-sitrep-31-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=dfd11d24_2."},{"key":"6870_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18869\/acadpub.aums.5.4.259","author":"M Asadi Shavaki","year":"2016","unstructured":"Asadi Shavaki M, Salehi L. The study of physical activity among elderly of Karaj city and its relationship with some the demographic factors. Alborz Univ Med J. 2016. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.18869\/acadpub.aums.5.4.259.","journal-title":"Alborz Univ Med J."},{"issue":"2","key":"6870_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"00129","DOI":"10.15406\/jpcpy.2015.03.00129","volume":"3","author":"M Houshdar","year":"2015","unstructured":"Houshdar M. The economic justification of running the online medical care in high schools 2. J Psychol Clin Psychiatry. 2015;3(2):00129.","journal-title":"J Psychol Clin Psychiatry"},{"key":"6870_CR16","unstructured":"WHO. Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus 2019 (n-CoV) on 23 January 2020."},{"key":"6870_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taaa021","author":"Y Liu","year":"2020","unstructured":"Liu Y, et al. The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus. J Travel Med. 2020. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jtm\/taaa021.","journal-title":"J Travel Med"},{"key":"6870_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2003261","author":"ET Eurosurveillance","year":"2019","unstructured":"Eurosurveillance ET. Updated rapid risk assessment from ECDC on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: increased transmission in the EU\/EEA and the UK. Eurosurveillance. 2019. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2003261.","journal-title":"Eurosurveillance"},{"key":"6870_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bsheal.2020.03.004","author":"M D'Arienzo","year":"2020","unstructured":"D\u2019Arienzo M, Coniglio A. Assessment of the SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number, R0, based on the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Biosaf Health. 2020. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.bsheal.2020.03.004.","journal-title":"Biosaf Health"},{"key":"6870_CR20","unstructured":"Prasse B, et al. Network-based prediction of the 2019-ncov epidemic outbreak in the chinese province hubei. arXiv preprint arXiv: 2002.04482, 2020."},{"key":"6870_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4081\/idr.2020.8516","author":"G Viceconte","year":"2020","unstructured":"Viceconte G, Petrosillo N. COVID-19 R0: magic number or conundrum? Infect Dis Rep. 2020. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4081\/idr.2020.8516.","journal-title":"Infect Dis Rep"},{"key":"6870_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Shao N, Cheng J, Chen W. The reproductive number R0 of COVID-19 based on estimate of a statistical time delay dynamical system. medRxiv, 2020.","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.02.17.20023747"},{"issue":"1","key":"6870_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2501.171901","volume":"25","author":"PL Delamater","year":"2019","unstructured":"Delamater PL, et al. Complexity of the basic reproduction number (R0). Emerg Infect Dis. 2019;25(1):1.","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"issue":"5627","key":"6870_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1961","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1086478","volume":"300","author":"S Riley","year":"2003","unstructured":"Riley S, et al. Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions. Science. 2003;300(5627):1961\u20136.","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"6870_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268820001247","author":"A Khosravi","year":"2020","unstructured":"Khosravi A, et al. The basic reproduction number and prediction of the epidemic size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Shahroud, Iran. Epidemiol Infect. 2020. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/S0950268820001247.","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"issue":"6","key":"6870_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"568","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.25748","volume":"92","author":"Y Wang","year":"2020","unstructured":"Wang Y, et al. Unique epidemiological and clinical features of the emerging 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID\u201019) implicate special control measures. J Med Virol. 2020;92(6):568\u201376.","journal-title":"J Med Virol"},{"key":"6870_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30162-6","author":"JR Koo","year":"2020","unstructured":"Koo JR, et al. Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30162-6.","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"6870_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Peng L, et al. Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling. arXiv preprint arXiv: 2002.06563, 2020.","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.02.16.20023465"},{"issue":"6489","key":"6870_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"395","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aba9757","volume":"368","author":"M Chinazzi","year":"2020","unstructured":"Chinazzi M, et al. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science. 2020;368(6489):395\u2013400.","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"6870_CR30","first-page":"v4","volume":"5","author":"K Muniz-Rodriguez","year":"2020","unstructured":"Muniz-Rodriguez K, et al. Epidemic doubling time of the COVID-19 epidemic by Chinese province. medRxiv. 2020;5:v4.","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"key":"6870_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2020.03.050","author":"J Yuan","year":"2020","unstructured":"Yuan J, et al. Monitoring transmissibility and mortality of COVID-19 in Europe. Int J Infect Dis. 2020. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ijid.2020.03.050.","journal-title":"Int J Infect Dis"},{"key":"6870_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tmaid.2020.101630","author":"Z Arab-Mazar","year":"2020","unstructured":"Arab-Mazar Z, et al. Mapping the incidence of the COVID-19 hotspot in Iran\u2014implications for travellers. Travel Med Infect Dis. 2020. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.tmaid.2020.101630.","journal-title":"Travel Med Infect Dis"},{"key":"6870_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gao S, et al. Mapping county-level mobility pattern changes in the United States in response to COVID-19. SSRN 3570145, 2020.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3570145"},{"key":"6870_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geosus.2020.03.005","author":"C Zhou","year":"2020","unstructured":"Zhou C, et al. COVID-19: challenges to GIS with big data. Geogr Sustain. 2020. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.geosus.2020.03.005.","journal-title":"Geogr Sustain."},{"key":"6870_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12942-020-00202-8","author":"MNK Boulos","year":"2020","unstructured":"Boulos MNK, Geraghty EM. Geographical tracking and mapping of coronavirus disease COVID-19\/severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic and associated events around the world: how 21st century GIS technologies are supporting the global fight against outbreaks and epidemics. Int J Health Geogr. 2020. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12942-020-00202-8.","journal-title":"Int J Health Geogr"},{"key":"6870_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3569098","author":"M Painter","year":"2020","unstructured":"Painter M, Qiu T. Political beliefs affect compliance with COVID-19 social distancing orders. SSRN J. 2020. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.3569098.","journal-title":"SSRN J."},{"key":"6870_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2423","DOI":"10.1590\/1413-81232020256.1.10502020","volume":"25","author":"EM Aquino","year":"2020","unstructured":"Aquino EM, et al. Social distancing measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic: potential impacts and challenges in Brazil. Cien Saude Colet.\n2020;25:2423\u201346.","journal-title":"Cien Saude Colet"},{"key":"6870_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Matrajt L, Leung T. Evaluating the effectiveness of social distancing interventions against COVID-19. medRxiv, 2020.","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.03.27.20044891"}],"container-title":["BMC Infectious Diseases"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s12879-021-06870-6.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1186\/s12879-021-06870-6\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s12879-021-06870-6.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,25]],"date-time":"2021-11-25T07:04:54Z","timestamp":1637823894000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com\/articles\/10.1186\/s12879-021-06870-6"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,25]]},"references-count":38,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]}},"alternative-id":["6870"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12879-021-06870-6","relation":{},"ISSN":["1471-2334"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1471-2334","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,25]]},"assertion":[{"value":"19 May 2020","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"13 November 2021","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"25 November 2021","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The research ethics committee of Alborz University of Medical Sciences reviewed and approved the study protocol before the enrollment of patients (IR.ABZUMS.REC.1399.006). All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethics standards of the institutional and national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki Declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethics standards. All participants were informed of the details of the study and signed the corresponding consent forms.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"The authors declare that they have no competing interests.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"1185"}}