{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,30]],"date-time":"2026-10-30T03:19:58Z","timestamp":1793330398463,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,23]],"date-time":"2024-05-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1716422400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,23]],"date-time":"2024-05-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1716422400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100006507","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Oswaldo Cruz","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Programa Inova FIOCRUZ\/Edital Inova\u00e7\u00e3o Amaz\u00f4nia"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Programa Inova FIOCRUZ\/Edital Inova\u00e7\u00e3o Amaz\u00f4nia"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100006507","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002322","name":"Coordena\u00e7\u00e3o de Aperfei\u00e7oamento de Pessoal de N\u00edvel Superior","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Finance code 001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Finance code 001"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002322","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000060","name":"National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U01-AI069923"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U01-AI069923"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000060","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100006506","name":"Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["25029.000507\/2013-07"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["25029.000507\/2013-07"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100006506","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Senior Fellowship"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Senior Fellowship"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["BMC Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Identifying patients at increased risk of loss to follow-up (LTFU) is key to developing strategies to optimize the clinical management of tuberculosis (TB). The use of national registry data in prediction models may be a useful tool to inform healthcare workers about risk of LTFU. Here we developed a score to predict the risk of LTFU during anti-TB treatment (ATT) in a nationwide cohort of cases using clinical data reported to the Brazilian Notifiable Disease Information System (SINAN).<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>We performed a retrospective study of all TB cases reported to SINAN between 2015 and 2022; excluding children (&lt;\u200918 years-old), vulnerable groups or drug-resistant TB. For the score, data before treatment initiation were used. We trained and internally validated three different prediction scoring systems, based on Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Light Gradient Boosting. Before applying our models we splitted our data into training (~\u200980% data) and test (~\u200920%) sets, and then compared the model metrics using the test data set.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Of the 243,726 cases included, 41,373 experienced LTFU whereas 202,353 were successfully treated. The groups were different with regards to several clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. The directly observed treatment (DOT) was unbalanced between the groups with lower prevalence in those who were LTFU. Three models were developed to predict LTFU using 8 features (prior TB, drug use, age, sex, HIV infection and schooling level) with different score composition approaches. Those prediction scoring systems exhibited an area under the curve (AUC) ranging between 0.71 and 0.72. The Light Gradient Boosting technique resulted in the best prediction performance, weighting specificity and sensitivity. A user-friendly web calculator app was developed (<jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"https:\/\/tbprediction.herokuapp.com\/\">https:\/\/tbprediction.herokuapp.com\/<\/jats:ext-link>) to facilitate implementation.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Our nationwide risk score predicts the risk of LTFU during ATT in Brazilian adults prior to treatment commencement utilizing schooling level, sex, age, prior TB status, and substance use (drug, alcohol, and\/or tobacco). This is a potential tool to assist in decision-making strategies to guide resource allocation, DOT indications, and improve TB treatment adherence.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-024-18815-0","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,23]],"date-time":"2024-05-23T08:02:35Z","timestamp":1716451355000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Machine learning algorithms using national registry data to predict loss to follow-up during tuberculosis treatment"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"24","author":[{"given":"Moreno M. S.","family":"Rodrigues","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Beatriz","family":"Barreto-Duarte","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Caian L.","family":"Vinhaes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mariana","family":"Ara\u00fajo-Pereira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eduardo R.","family":"Fukutani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Keityane Bone","family":"Bergamaschi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Afr\u00e2nio","family":"Kristki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marcelo","family":"Cordeiro-Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Valeria C.","family":"Rolla","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Timothy R.","family":"Sterling","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Artur T. L.","family":"Queiroz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bruno B.","family":"Andrade","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"18815_CR1","unstructured":"WHO. Global tuberculosis report 2023 [Internet]. [cited 2023 Nov 28]. https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications-detail-redirect\/9789240083851."},{"key":"18815_CR2","unstructured":"Rapid communication. key changes to the treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis [Internet]. [cited 2023 Dec 4]. https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications-detail-redirect\/WHO-UCN-TB-2022-2."},{"key":"18815_CR3","unstructured":"WHO consolidated guidelines on tuberculosis. module 4: treatment: drug-susceptible tuberculosis treatment [Internet]. 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There was no identifiable information in the databases and thus the study was exempt from approval by ethics committees.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}},{"value":"The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.","order":5,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Disclaimer"}}],"article-number":"1385"}}