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The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive nomogram to screen for severe caries among 12-year-old children based on risk factors in Sichuan Province, China.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>A cross-sectional study of 4573 12-year-olds was conducted up to May 2016 in middle schools from three districts and three counties in Sichuan Province, China. All the children underwent oral examinations and completed questionnaires to assess general information, oral impacts on daily performance, dietary habits, subjective health conditions, history of dental trauma, frequency of toothache, dental visits, and knowledge, attitudes, and behaviours toward oral hygiene. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to determine which variables were significantly associated with severe caries (operationalized as DMFT\u2009\u2265\u20093). A nomogram was developed and validated by using the \u2018rms\u2019 package and two cross-validation methods.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Severe caries was found in 537 of the 4573 children (11.74%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the following variables predicted a higher risk of severe caries: \u2018female\u2019 [odds ratio (OR)\u2009=\u20091.985, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.63\u20132.411], \u2018urban\u2019 (OR\u2009=\u20092.389, 95% CI: 1.96\u20132.91), \u2018non-only child\u2019 (OR\u2009=\u20091.317, 95% CI: 1.07\u20131.625), \u2018very poor self-assessment of oral health status\u2019 (OR\u2009=\u20092.157, 95% CI: 1.34\u20133.467) and \u2018visited a dentist less than 6\u00a0months\u2019 (OR\u2009=\u20091.861, 95% CI: 1.38\u20132.505). Multivariate logistic regression analysis also indicated that the following variables predicted a lower risk of severe caries: \u2018middle level of urbanization\u2019 (OR\u2009=\u20090.395, 95% CI: 0.32\u20130.495) and \u2018high level of urbanization\u2019 (OR\u2009=\u20090.466, 95% CI: 0.37\u20130.596). Both the fivefold and leave-one-out cross-validation methods indicated that the nomogram model built by these 6 variables displayed good disease recognition ability.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>The nomogram was a simple-to-use model to screen children for severe caries. This model was found to facilitate non-dental professionals in assessing risk values without oral examinations and making referrals to dental professionals.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12903-021-01819-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,20]],"date-time":"2021-09-20T11:03:03Z","timestamp":1632135783000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["A predictive nomogram: a cross-sectional study on a simple-to-use model for screening 12-year-old children for severe caries in middle schools"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"21","author":[{"given":"Shaoying","family":"Duan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Meng","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jialiang","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Huiyu","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jinfeng","family":"He","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lei","family":"Lei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ran","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tao","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,20]]},"reference":[{"issue":"5","key":"1819_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"650","DOI":"10.1177\/0022034515573272","volume":"94","author":"NJ Kassebaum","year":"2015","unstructured":"Kassebaum NJ, Bernab\u00e9 E, Dahiya M, Bhandari B, Murray CJ, Marcenes W. 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Int Dent J. 2020;70(3):167\u201375.","journal-title":"Int Dent J"}],"container-title":["BMC Oral Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s12903-021-01819-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1186\/s12903-021-01819-2\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s12903-021-01819-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,20]],"date-time":"2021-09-20T12:08:41Z","timestamp":1632139721000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/bmcoralhealth.biomedcentral.com\/articles\/10.1186\/s12903-021-01819-2"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,20]]},"references-count":45,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]}},"alternative-id":["1819"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12903-021-01819-2","relation":{},"ISSN":["1472-6831"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1472-6831","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,20]]},"assertion":[{"value":"23 April 2021","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"10 September 2021","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"20 September 2021","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"All procedures performed in the study were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and\/or national research committee (locally approved by the ethics committee of the Stomatological Ethics Committee of the Chinese Stomatological Association and the Ethics Committee of the West China Hospital of Stomatology, Sichuan University: 2014-003). After parents signed informed consent forms, examinations were conducted with mobile dental chairs and portable lights.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"457"}}