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No predictive model currently exists to assess malignancy risk in this population. This study aimed to identify key clinical and demographic predictors and to develop a model for malignancy risk in tumors diagnosed in Lagos, Nigeria.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We analyzed patient records with tumor diagnoses from 2000 to 2024, obtained from the Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery and Oral Pathology departments of the Lagos University Teaching Hospital. Surgical biopsy records and corresponding histopathology reports were reviewed. Tumor sites were grouped into five anatomical regions: mandible, midface, oral mucosa and salivary glands, extra oral, and unspecified regions. Descriptive statistics summarized patient and tumor features, while statistical analyses examined associations between demographics and tumor severity (benign\/malignant). A predictive model for tumor severity was developed using data-splitting and leave-one-out cross-validation approaches.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Of the 1,068 patients, 1,062 had confirmed diagnoses. Median age was 35\u00a0years [IQR:23\u201352], 53.96% were male, and the mandible was the most common site (48.31%). Tumors were most frequent on the right (30.13%) and measured 6\u2009\u00d7\u20094x2cm on average. Median duration of presentation was 12\u00a0months [IQR:5\u201336], with 50.75% benign tumors. Tumor severity was significantly associated with age (47 vs. 28\u00a0years), site, laterality, duration (\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u20090.001), and sex (\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u20090.024), with males more susceptible to malignancy. Age inversely correlated with presentation duration (\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u20090.00067), and tumor site was not associated with sex (\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u20090.054). Conventional ameloblastoma was the most common benign tumor, while squamous cell carcinoma was the most common malignancy. Multivariate analysis showed malignancy was associated with age (OR\u2009=\u20091.61;\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u20090.001), tumor site (midface (OR\u2009=\u20093.88), oral mucosa and salivary glands (OR\u2009=\u200923.8), and extraoral sites (OR\u2009=\u2009108.01) compared to the mandible [all\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u20090.001]), length (OR\u2009=\u20091.93;\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u20090.001), and shorter duration (OR\u2009=\u20090.68;\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u20090.001). Central (OR\u2009=\u20090.2), left (OR\u2009=\u20090.46), or right laterality (OR\u2009=\u20090.32) lowered malignancy odds versus unspecified (all\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u20090.04). Our predictive model approaches achieved area under the curve of 0.864 and 0.883.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We identified age, site, laterality, and duration before presentation, as key malignancy predictors. This will aid comprehensive care plans for optimal clinical outcomes.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12903-025-07235-0","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,1]],"date-time":"2025-12-01T10:35:15Z","timestamp":1764585315000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Key clinical and demographic factors influencing head and neck tumor severity in Lagos"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"26","author":[{"given":"Emmanuel Temitope","family":"Aladenika","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Warith Olaitan","family":"Akinshipo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Adegbayi Adeola","family":"Adekunle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tosin","family":"Bakare","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tamara","family":"Busch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Olajumoke Ajibola","family":"Effiom","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wasiu","family":"Adeyemo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Azeez","family":"Butali","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"7235_CR1","first-page":"35","volume":"58","author":"I Bi\u010dani\u0107","year":"2019","unstructured":"Bi\u010dani\u0107 I, Hladnik A, D\u017eaja D, Petanjek Z. 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This current study is a retrospective study that involved the use of de-identified data extracted from existing medical and histopathology records. As such, informed consent to participate was waived by both ethics\u2019 committees (HREC at LUTH and HawkIRB) due to the retrospective nature of the study and the use of anonymized data. This waiver is consistent with national guidelines and institutional policies. All research procedures were conducted in accordance with the ethical standards outlined in the Declaration of Helsinki (2024 version) and complied with relevant institutional and national regulations regarding research involving human data.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"20"}}