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CRC prognostic prediction models were constructed in this study to clarify whether and to what extent the inclusion of perioperative longitudinal measurements of CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 can improve the model performance, and perform a dynamic prediction.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The training and validating cohort included 1453 and 444 CRC patients who underwent curative resection, with preoperative measurement and two or more measurements within 12\u00a0months after surgery, respectively. Prediction models to predict CRC overall survival were constructed with demographic and clinicopathological variables, by incorporating preoperative CEA, CA19-9, and CA125, as well as their perioperative longitudinal measurements.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In internal validation, the model with preoperative CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 outperformed the model including CEA only, with the better area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs: 0.774 vs 0.716), brier scores (BSs: 0.057 vs 0.058), and net reclassification improvement (NRI\u2009=\u200933.5%, 95% CI: 12.3\u2009~\u200954.8%) at 36\u00a0months after surgery. Furthermore, the prediction models, by incorporating longitudinal measurements of CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 within 12\u00a0months after surgery, had improved prediction accuracy, with higher AUC (0.849) and lower BS (0.049). Compared with preoperative models, the model incorporating longitudinal measurements of the three markers had significant NRI (40.8%, 95% CI: 19.6 to 62.1%) at 36\u00a0months after surgery. External validation showed similar results to internal validation. The proposed longitudinal prediction model can provide a personalized dynamic prediction for a new patient, with estimated survival probability updated when a new measurement is collected during 12\u00a0months after surgery.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Prediction models including longitudinal measurements of CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 have improved accuracy in predicting the prognosis of CRC patients. We recommend repeated measurements of CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 in the surveillance of CRC prognosis.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-023-02773-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,20]],"date-time":"2023-02-20T20:02:28Z","timestamp":1676923348000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":46,"title":["Prediction models of colorectal cancer prognosis incorporating perioperative longitudinal serum tumor markers: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"21","author":[{"given":"Chunxia","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ke","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dafu","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiaolin","family":"Pang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hongjiang","family":"Pu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ming","family":"Lei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bingbing","family":"Fan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiali","family":"Lv","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dingyun","family":"You","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhenhui","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1048-4443","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tao","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,21]]},"reference":[{"issue":"3","key":"2773_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21601","volume":"70","author":"RL Siegel","year":"2020","unstructured":"Siegel RL, Miller KD, Goding Sauer A, Fedewa SA, Butterly LF, Anderson JC, et al. 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