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We aim to develop and validate prediction models for persistent PCC up to 24\u00a0months post-infection in CYP.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>CYP who were PCR-positive between September 2020 and March 2021, with follow-up data up to\u00a024-months post-infection, were analysed. Persistent PCC was defined in two ways, as PCC at (a) 3, 6, 12 and 24\u00a0months post-infection (<jats:italic>N<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u2009943) or (b) 6, 12 and 24\u00a0months post-infection (<jats:italic>N<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20092373). Prediction models were developed using logistic regression; performance was assessed using calibration and discrimination measures; internal validation was performed via bootstrapping; the final model was adjusted for overfitting.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>While 24.7% (233\/943) of CYP met the PCC definition 3\u00a0months post-infection, only 7.2% (68\/943) continued to meet the PCC definition at all three subsequent timepoints, i.e. at 6, 12 and 24\u00a0months. The final models predicting risk of persistent PCC (at 3, 6, 12 and 24\u00a0months and at 6, 12 and 24\u00a0months) contained sex (female), history of asthma, allergy problems, learning difficulties at school and family history of ongoing COVID-19 problems, with additional variables (e.g. older age at infection and region of residence) in the model predicting PCC at 6, 12 and 24\u00a0months. Internal validation showed minimal overfitting of models with good calibration and discrimination measures (optimism-adjusted calibration slope: 1.064\u20131.142; C-statistic: 0.724\u20130.755).<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>To our knowledge, these are the only prediction models estimating the risk of CYP persistently meeting the PCC definition up to 24\u00a0months post-infection. The models could be used to triage CYP after infection. CYP with factors predicting longer-term symptomology, may benefit from earlier support.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-024-03708-1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,7]],"date-time":"2024-11-07T15:01:55Z","timestamp":1730991715000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Predicting post-COVID-19 condition in children and young people up to 24\u00a0months after a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR-test: the CLoCk study"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"22","author":[{"given":"Manjula D.","family":"Nugawela","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Terence","family":"Stephenson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Roz","family":"Shafran","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Trudie","family":"Chalder","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Emma","family":"Dalrymple","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tamsin","family":"Ford","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lana","family":"Fox-Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anthony","family":"Harnden","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Isobel","family":"Heyman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shamez N.","family":"Ladhani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kelsey","family":"McOwat","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ruth","family":"Simmons","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Olivia","family":"Swann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth","family":"Whittaker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"name":"CLoCk Consortium","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bianca","family":"De Stavola","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Esther","family":"Crawley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kishan","family":"Sharma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marta","family":"Buszewicz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"Levin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shruti","family":"Garg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vanessa","family":"Poustie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Snehal M.","family":"Pinto Pereira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,7]]},"reference":[{"issue":"4","key":"3708_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e235779","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2023.5779","volume":"6","author":"D Pan","year":"2023","unstructured":"Pan D, Pareek M. 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Eur J Pediatr. 2022;181(12):3995\u20134009.","journal-title":"Eur J Pediatr"}],"container-title":["BMC Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s12916-024-03708-1.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1186\/s12916-024-03708-1\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s12916-024-03708-1.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,7]],"date-time":"2024-11-07T15:04:26Z","timestamp":1730991866000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com\/articles\/10.1186\/s12916-024-03708-1"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,7]]},"references-count":33,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,12]]}},"alternative-id":["3708"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12916-024-03708-1","relation":{},"ISSN":["1741-7015"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1741-7015","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,7]]},"assertion":[{"value":"30 September 2024","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"16 October 2024","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"7 November 2024","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The study was approved by Yorkshire and the Humber\u2013South Yorkshire Research Ethics Committee (REC reference: 21\/YH\/0060; IRAS project ID: 293495).","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"None of the funders was involved in study design, data collection, analysis or writing.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"TS is Chair of the Health Research Authority and therefore recused himself from the Research Ethics Application. TC is a member of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence committee for long COVID. She has written self-help books on chronic fatigue and has done workshops on chronic fatigue and post infectious syndromes. RS co-authored a book published in August 2020, titled Oxford Guide to Brief and Low Intensity Interventions for Children and Young People. TF\u2019s research group receives funding for research consultancy from Place2Be, a third sector organisation providing mental health training, support, and interventions to schools across the UK. All remaining authors have no conflicts of interest.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"520"}}