{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,15]],"date-time":"2026-09-15T18:44:32Z","timestamp":1789497872200,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":90,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,31]],"date-time":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735603200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,31]],"date-time":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735603200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["BMC Med"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Risk prediction models can identify individuals at high risk of chronic liver disease (CLD), but there is limited evidence on the performance of various models in diverse populations. We aimed to systematically review CLD prediction models, meta-analyze their performance, and externally validate them in 0.5 million Chinese adults in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB).<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Models were identified through a systematic review and categorized by the target population and outcomes (hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC] and CLD). The performance of models to predict 10-year risk of CLD was assessed by discrimination (C-index) and calibration (observed vs predicted probabilies).<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>The systematic review identified 57 articles and 114 models (28.4% undergone external validation), including 13 eligible for validation in CKB. Models with high discrimination (C-index\u2009\u2265\u20090.70) in CKB were as follows: (1) general population: Li-2018 and Wen 1\u20132012 for HCC, CLivD score (non-lab and lab) and dAAR for CLD; (2) hepatitis B virus (HBV) infected individuals: Cao-2021 for HCC and CAP-B for CLD. In CKB, all models tended to overestimate the risk (O:E ratio 0.55\u20130.94). In meta-analysis, we further identified models with high discrimination: (1) general population (C-index\u2009\u2265\u20090.70): Sinn-2020, Wen 2\u20132012, and Wen 3\u20132012 for HCC, and FIB-4 and Forns for CLD; (2) HBV infected individuals (C-index\u2009\u2265\u20090.80): RWS-HCC and REACH-B IIa for HCC and GAG-HCC for HCC and CLD.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Several models showed good discrimination and calibration in external validation, indicating their potential feasibility for risk stratification in population-based screening programs for CLD in Chinese adults.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-024-03754-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,31]],"date-time":"2024-12-31T01:42:54Z","timestamp":1735609374000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Comparison of models to predict incident chronic liver disease: a systematic review and external validation in Chinese adults"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"22","author":[{"given":"Xue","family":"Cong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shuyao","family":"Song","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yingtao","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kaiyang","family":"Song","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cameron","family":"MacLeod","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yujie","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jun","family":"Lv","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Canqing","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dianjianyi","family":"Sun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pei","family":"Pei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ling","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yiping","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Iona","family":"Millwood","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shukuan","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiaoming","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rebecca","family":"Stevens","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Junshi","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhengming","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liming","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christiana","family":"Kartsonaki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4826-8861","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yuanjie","family":"Pang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"name":"on behalf of the China Kadoorie Biobank Collaborative Group","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"3754_CR1","unstructured":"Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990\u20132021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. 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Approvals were also obtained from institutional research boards at the local CDCs in the ten areas: Qingdao, Qingdao CDC; Heilongjiang, Provincial CDC; Hainan, Provincial CDC; Jiangsu, Provincial CDC; Guangxi, Provincial CDC; Sichuan, Provincial CDC; Gansu, Provincial CDC; Henan, Provincial CDC; Zhejiang, Provincial CDC; and Hunan, Provincial CDC. The study protocol of the resurvey was approved by the Peking University Institutional Review Board (No. IRB00001052-20040), and separate written informed consent was obtained from all participants before accelerometer data collection.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"The authors declare that they have no competing interests.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"601"}}