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These patients often have poor clinical outcomes. Early recognition of IPA in COPD is always challenging. We aimed to develop and validate a risk model using readily available clinical parameters to predict IPA for acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) patients.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We performed a retrospective cohort study. AECOPD patients who were admitted to Jinling Hospital between January 2012 and December 2017 were included. 880 AECOPD patients were randomly divided into the training set (70%, n\u2009=\u2009616) and validation set (30%, n\u2009=\u2009264). A nomogram model was developed using multivariate logistic regression from training set. The discrimination and calibration of model were validated internally. Decision curve analyses assessed the clinical utility of the nomogram.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      The incidence of IPA in hospitalized AECOPD patients was 9.6% in the training set (59 cases of IPA) and 9.1% in the validation set (24 cases of IPA), respectively. The nomogram model consisted of independent factors associated with IPA included lung function GOLD III\u2013IV, use of broad-spectrum antibiotic over 10\u00a0days in the last month, oral or intravenous corticosteroids (prednisone) over 265\u00a0mg in the last 3\u00a0months and serum albumin\u2009&lt;\u200930\u00a0g\/L. The model performed good discrimination and calibration in validation set (c-statistic, 0.79 [95%CI 0.68\u20130.90]). The 95%CI region of calibration belt did not cross the 45-degree diagonal bisector line (\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u20090.887).\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The simple risk predictive model for earlier recognition of IPA is useful in hospitalized AECOPD patients.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12931-021-01771-3","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,9]],"date-time":"2021-06-09T11:04:10Z","timestamp":1623236650000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24,"title":["A risk-predictive model for invasive pulmonary aspergillosis in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"22","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7249-0174","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yu","family":"Gu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xianping","family":"Ye","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuxiu","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yu","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kunlu","family":"Shen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jinjin","family":"Zhong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bilin","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xin","family":"Su","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"1771_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"782","DOI":"10.1183\/09031936.00062206","volume":"30","author":"P Bulpa","year":"2007","unstructured":"Bulpa P, Dive A, Sibille Y. 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