{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T12:14:08Z","timestamp":1789992848817,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,9]],"date-time":"2023-10-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1696809600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,9]],"date-time":"2023-10-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1696809600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Malar J"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Although Ethiopia has made great strides in recent years to reduce the threat of malaria, the disease remains a significant issue in most districts of the country. It constantly disappears in parts of the areas before reappearing in others with erratic transmission rates. Thus, developing a malaria epidemic early warning system is important to support the prevention and control of the incidence.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Space-time malaria risk mapping is essential to monitor and evaluate priority zones, refocus intervention, and enable planning for future health targets. From August 2013 to May 2019, the researcher considered an aggregated count of genus <jats:italic>Plasmodium falciparum <\/jats:italic>from 149 districts in Southern Ethiopia. Afterwards, a malaria epidemic early warning system was developed using model-based geostatistics, which helped to chart the disease\u2019s spread and future management.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Risk factors like precipitation, temperature, humidity, and nighttime light are significantly associated with malaria with different rates across the districts. Districts in the southwest, including Selamago, Bero, and Hamer, had higher rates of malaria risk, whereas in the south and centre like Arbaminch and Hawassa had moderate rates. The distribution is inconsistent and varies across time and space with the seasons.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Despite the importance of spatial correlation in disease risk mapping, it may occasionally be a good idea to generate epidemic early warning independently in each district to get a quick picture of disease risk. A system like this is essential for spotting numerous inconsistencies in lower administrative levels early enough to take corrective action before outbreaks arise.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-023-04742-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,9]],"date-time":"2023-10-09T16:02:18Z","timestamp":1696867338000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Space-time modelling of monthly malaria incidence for seasonal associated drivers and early epidemic detection in Southern Ethiopia"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"22","author":[{"given":"Yonas Shuke","family":"Kitawa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zeytu Gashaw","family":"Asfaw","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"4742_CR1","volume-title":"World malaria report 2022","author":"WHO","year":"2022","unstructured":"WHO. World malaria report 2022. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2022."},{"issue":"1","key":"4742_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1745-6584.2009.00627.x","volume":"48","author":"D Cohen","year":"2010","unstructured":"Cohen D, Person M, Wang P, Gable CW, Hutchinson D, Marksamer A, et al. Origin and extent of fresh paleowaters on the Atlantic continental shelf, USA. Groundwater. 2010;48(1):143\u201358.","journal-title":"Groundwater"},{"key":"4742_CR3","volume-title":"Global technical strategy for malaria 2016\u20132030","author":"WHO","year":"2015","unstructured":"WHO. Global technical strategy for malaria 2016\u20132030. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2015."},{"key":"4742_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"186","DOI":"10.4314\/eamj.v82i4.9279","volume":"82","author":"K Negash","year":"2005","unstructured":"Negash K, Kebede A, Medhin A, Argaw D, Babaniyi O, Guintran JO, et al. Malaria epidemics in the highlands of Ethiopia. East Afr Med J. 2005;82:186\u201392.","journal-title":"East Afr Med J"},{"key":"4742_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3635","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-07713-3","volume":"12","author":"TZ Nigussie","year":"2022","unstructured":"Nigussie TZ, Zewotir TT, Muluneh EK. Detection of temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal clustering of malaria incidence in northwest Ethiopia, 2012\u20132020. Sci Rep. 2022;12:3635.","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"4742_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-3-41","volume":"3","author":"HD Teklehaimanot","year":"2004","unstructured":"Teklehaimanot HD, Lipsitch M, Teklehaimanot A, Schwartz J. Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms. Malar J. 2004;3:41.","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"key":"4742_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"19975","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-77031-z","volume":"10","author":"SK Tessema","year":"2020","unstructured":"Tessema SK, Belachew M, Koepfli C, Lanke K, Huwe T, Chali W, et al. Spatial and genetic clustering of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections in a low-transmission area of Ethiopia. Sci Rep. 2020;10:19975.","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"4742_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-018-0487-3","volume":"7","author":"HS Taffese","year":"2018","unstructured":"Taffese HS, Hemming-Schroeder E, Koepfli C, Tesfaye G, Lee MC, Kazura J, et al. Malaria epidemiology and interventions in Ethiopia from 2001 to 2016. Infect Dis Poverty. 2018;7:103.","journal-title":"Infect Dis Poverty"},{"key":"4742_CR9","first-page":"7065064","volume":"2019","author":"T Deress","year":"2019","unstructured":"Deress T, Girma M. Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax prevalence in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Malar Res Treat. 2019;2019:7065064.","journal-title":"Malar Res Treat"},{"key":"4742_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1186\/s40794-019-0090-z","volume":"5","author":"T Girum","year":"2019","unstructured":"Girum T, Shumbej T, Shewangizaw M. Burden of malaria in Ethiopia, 2000\u20132016: findings from the Global Health Estimates 2016. Trop Dis Travel Med Vaccines. 2019;5:11.","journal-title":"Trop Dis Travel Med Vaccines"},{"key":"4742_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"196","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-017-2124-6","volume":"10","author":"D Seyoum","year":"2017","unstructured":"Seyoum D, Yewhalaw D, Duchateau L, Brandt P, Rosas-Aguirre A, Speybroeck N. Household level spatio-temporal analysis of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria in Ethiopia. Parasit Vectors. 2017;10:196.","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"key":"4742_CR12","unstructured":"FDREMH. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Ministry of Health: National Malaria Elimination Strategic Plan: 2021\u20132025. Addis Ababa, 2020."},{"key":"4742_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"585","DOI":"10.1017\/S0031182004005013","volume":"128","author":"TA Abeku","year":"2004","unstructured":"Abeku TA, De Vlas SJ, Borsboom GJ, Tadege A, Gebreyesus Y, Gebreyohannes H, et al. Effects of meteorological factors on epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: a statistical modelling approach based on theoretical reasoning. Parasitology. 2004;128:585\u201393.","journal-title":"Parasitology"},{"key":"4742_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/9781315188492","volume-title":"Model-based geostatistics for global public health: methods and applications","author":"PJ Diggle","year":"2019","unstructured":"Diggle PJ, Giorgi E. Model-based geostatistics for global public health: methods and applications. Boca Raton: CRC Press; 2019."},{"key":"4742_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20190713","DOI":"10.1098\/rsbl.2019.0713","volume":"16","author":"MJ Harris","year":"2020","unstructured":"Harris MJ, Hay SI, Drake JM. Early warning signals of malaria resurgence in Kericho, Kenya. Biol Lett. 2020;16:20190713.","journal-title":"Biol Lett"},{"key":"4742_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"165","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-11-165","volume":"11","author":"A Midekisa","year":"2023","unstructured":"Midekisa A, Senay G, Henebry GM, Semuniguse P, Wimberly MC. Remote sensing-based time series models for malaria early warning in the highlands of Ethiopia. Malar J. 2023;11:165.","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"key":"4742_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"339","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-015-0954-7","volume":"8","author":"A Midekisa","year":"2015","unstructured":"Midekisa A, Beyene B, Mihretie A, Bayabil E, Wimberly MC. Seasonal associations of climatic drivers and malaria in the highlands of Ethiopia. Parasit Vectors. 2015;8:339.","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"key":"4742_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9238","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-018-27537-4","volume":"8","author":"KL Colborn","year":"2018","unstructured":"Colborn KL, Giorgi E, Monaghan AJ, Gudo E, Candrinho B, Marrufo TJ, et al. Spatio-temporal modelling of weekly malaria incidence in children under 5 for early epidemic detection in Mozambique. Sci Rep. 2018;8:9238.","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"4742_CR19","volume-title":"Malaria early warning systems: concepts, indicators and partners a framework for field research in Africa","author":"WHO","year":"2001","unstructured":"WHO. Malaria early warning systems: concepts, indicators and partners a framework for field research in Africa. Geneva: World Health Organization\/Roll Back Malaria\/Technical Support Network for Prevention and Control of Malaria; 2001."},{"key":"4742_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"118","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2041-210X.2010.00021.x","volume":"1","author":"R O\u2019Hara","year":"2010","unstructured":"O\u2019Hara R, Kotze J. Do not log-transform count data. Methods Ecol Evol. 2010;1:118\u201322.","journal-title":"Methods Ecol Evol"},{"key":"4742_CR21","first-page":"151","volume":"107","author":"T Gneiting","year":"2006","unstructured":"Gneiting T, Genton MG, Guttorp P. Geostatistical space-time models, stationarity, separability, and full symmetry. Monogr Stat Appl Probab. 2006;107:151.","journal-title":"Monogr Stat Appl Probab"},{"key":"4742_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1096","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2015.1123158","volume":"111","author":"PJ Diggle","year":"2016","unstructured":"Diggle PJ, Giorgi E. Model-based geostatistics for prevalence mapping in low-resource settings. J Am Stat Assoc. 2016;111:1096\u2013120.","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc"},{"key":"4742_CR23","unstructured":"CSA. Central Statistical Authority. Population and housing census of Ethiopia. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Country Level; 2007. p. 2007."},{"key":"4742_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"571","DOI":"10.1111\/insr.12268","volume":"86","author":"E Giorgi","year":"2018","unstructured":"Giorgi E, Diggle PJ, Snow RW, Noor AM. Geostatistical methods for disease mapping and visualisation using data from spatio-temporally referenced prevalence surveys. Int Stat Rev. 2018;86:571\u201397.","journal-title":"Int Stat Rev"},{"key":"4742_CR25","unstructured":"EFDR. Ethiopian Ministry of Health report, Malaria epidemiological profile. 2019, www.moh.gov.et\/ejcc\/en\/malaria."},{"key":"4742_CR26","volume-title":"The \"World Malaria Report 2019\" at a glance","author":"WHO","year":"2019","unstructured":"WHO. The \u201cWorld Malaria Report 2019\u201d at a glance. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 2019."},{"key":"4742_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v078.i08","volume":"78","author":"E Giorgi","year":"2017","unstructured":"Giorgi E, Diggle PJ. PrevMap: an R package for prevalence mapping. J Stat Softw. 2017;78:1\u201329.","journal-title":"J Stat Softw"},{"key":"4742_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"104","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-021-03641-1","volume":"20","author":"D Dabaro","year":"2021","unstructured":"Dabaro D, Birhanu Z, Negash A, Hawaria D, Yewhalaw D. Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia. Malar J. 2021;20:104.","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"key":"4742_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.14-0257","volume":"93","author":"C Ohrt","year":"2015","unstructured":"Ohrt C, Roberts KW, Sturrock HJ, Wegbreit J, Lee BY, Gosling RD. Information systems to support surveillance for malaria elimination. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2015;93:145.","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"4742_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20210104","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2021.0104","volume":"18","author":"E Giorgi","year":"2021","unstructured":"Giorgi E, Fronterr\u00e8 C, Macharia PM, Alegana VA, Snow RW, Diggle PJ. Model building and assessment of the impact of covariates for disease prevalence mapping in low-resource settings: to explain and to predict. J R Soc Interface. 2021;18:20210104.","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface"},{"key":"4742_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1555","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-021-21815-y","volume":"12","author":"X Rod\u00f3","year":"2021","unstructured":"Rod\u00f3 X, Martinez PP, Siraj A, Pascual M. Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 \u2018slowdown\u2019 in global warming. Nat Commun. 2021;12:1555.","journal-title":"Nat Commun"}],"container-title":["Malaria Journal"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s12936-023-04742-9.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1186\/s12936-023-04742-9\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s12936-023-04742-9.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,18]],"date-time":"2023-11-18T06:02:53Z","timestamp":1700287373000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/malariajournal.biomedcentral.com\/articles\/10.1186\/s12936-023-04742-9"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,9]]},"references-count":31,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,12]]}},"alternative-id":["4742"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12936-023-04742-9","relation":{},"ISSN":["1475-2875"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1475-2875","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,9]]},"assertion":[{"value":"15 April 2023","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"4 October 2023","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"9 October 2023","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The study was conducted according to the guidelines of the Declaration of Helsinki and approved by the Ethics Committee of the College of Natural and Computational Science, Hawassa University (protocol code: RERC\/030\/12, and date of approval: July 20, 2022). The ethical review board of Hawassa University College of Natural and Computational Science waived participant informed consent since the study was conducted using district-level monthly surveillance data.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"The authors declare that there is no competing interest regarding the publication of this article.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"301"}}