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Mathematical models have become an important tool in describing the dynamics of a vector borne disease. Classical compartmental models are well\u2013known method used to identify the dynamical behavior of spread of a vector borne disease. Due to use of fixed model parameters, the results of classical compartmental models do not match realistic nature. The aim of this study is to introduce time in varying model parameters, modify the classical compartmental model by improving its predictability power.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>In this study, <jats:italic>per\u2013capita vector density<\/jats:italic> has been chosen as the time in varying model parameter. The dengue incidences, rainfall and temperature data in urban Colombo are analyzed using Fourier mathematical analysis tool. Further, periodic pattern of the reported dengue incidences and meteorological data and correlation of dengue incidences with meteorological data are identified to determine climate data\u2013driven <jats:italic>per\u2013capita vector density<\/jats:italic> parameter function. By considering that the vector dynamics occurs in faster time scale compares to host dynamics, a two dimensional data\u2013driven compartmental model is derived with aid of classical compartmental models. Moreover, a function for <jats:italic>per\u2013capita vector density<\/jats:italic> is introduced to capture the seasonal pattern of the disease according to the effect of climate factors in urban Colombo.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>The two dimensional data\u2013driven compartmental model can be used to predict weekly dengue incidences upto 4 weeks. Accuracy of the model is evaluated using relative error function and the model can be used to predict more than 75% accurate data.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12976-020-00134-7","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,7]],"date-time":"2021-01-07T20:10:28Z","timestamp":1610050228000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":14,"title":["Analysis and forecast of dengue incidence in urban Colombo, Sri Lanka"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0271-857X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"KKWH","family":"Erandi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"SSN","family":"Perera","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"AC","family":"Mahasinghe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,7]]},"reference":[{"issue":"3","key":"134_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"138","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tim.2013.12.011","volume":"22","author":"JP Messina","year":"2014","unstructured":"Messina JP, Brady OJ, Scott TW, Zou C, Pigott DM, Duda KA, Bhatt S, Katzelnick L, Howes RE, Battle KE. 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