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Our predictions, used in an independent risk assessment, suggest that genetically modified sterile male mosquitoes will remain within the locality of the release site, and that they will persist for a very limited amount of time. Data gathered following the release of these mosquitoes will enable us to test the accuracy of these predictions and also provide a means to update parameter distributions for genetic strains in a coherent (Bayesian) framework. We anticipate this will provide additional insights about how to conduct probabilistic risk assessments of stage-released genetically modified mosquitoes.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Graphical abstract<\/jats:title><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-021-04982-1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,16]],"date-time":"2021-09-16T12:03:04Z","timestamp":1631793784000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Predicting the spread and persistence of genetically modified dominant sterile male mosquitoes"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7861-7340","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Adrien","family":"Ickowicz","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Scott D.","family":"Foster","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Geoffrey R.","family":"Hosack","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Keith R.","family":"Hayes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"4982_CR1","unstructured":"World Health Organisation. 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The mark-release-capture data were kindly provided by the Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la Sant\u00e9, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso, and were collected with approval from the local institutional ethics committee (Centre Muraz Institutional Ethics Committee), reference number 009-2012\/CE-CM.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"The authors declare that they have no competing interests.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"480"}}