{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,18]],"date-time":"2026-07-18T14:47:48Z","timestamp":1784386068851,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,7]],"date-time":"2021-09-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1630972800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,7]],"date-time":"2021-09-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1630972800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Arthritis Res Ther"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Evidence on prognostic factors associated with progression to total hip replacement (THR) in hip osteoarthritis (OA) is for the most patient- and disease-specific characteristics either conflicting or inconclusive. Therefore, the objectives of this study of participants with hip OA enrolled in a structured program of supervised education and exercise therapy were to describe the rate of THR and to identify prognostic factors for receiving THR within the following 2 years.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Participants aged \u2265 45\u2009years with hip OA enrolled in Good Life with osteoArthritis in Denmark (GLA:D\u00ae) from July 2014 to March 2017 were included. Potential prognostic factors included demographic and disease-specific baseline characteristics and measures of physical activity and quality of life (QoL). Information on THR was retrieved from The Danish National Patient Registry. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was developed.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Of 3657 included participants, 30% received a THR within 2 years. Of the 100 participants already wait-listed for THR, 60% had the procedure. Of 22 candidate prognostic factors, 14 were statistically significant for receiving THR. Factors associated with a faster rate of THR included being \u201cmale\u201d (HR 1.43), having \u201cself-reported radiographic hip OA\u201d (HR 2.32), being \u201cwait-listed for THR\u201d (HR 2.17), and having a higher \u201cpain intensity\u201d (HR 1.01). In contrast, faster \u201cwalking speed\u201d (HR 0.64), better \u201chip-related QoL\u201d (HR 0.98), and having \u201cthree or more comorbidities\u201d (HR 0.62) were predictive of a slower rate of THR.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>During the 2-year follow-up period, 30% of the cohort received a THR. Notably, 40% of those wait-listed for THR when entering the program did not receive THR within 2 years. A number of baseline prognostic factors for receiving THR were identified.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s13075-021-02608-6","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,7]],"date-time":"2021-09-07T05:03:02Z","timestamp":1630990982000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Prognostic factors of total hip replacement during a 2-year period in participants enrolled in supervised education and exercise therapy: a prognostic study of 3657 participants with hip osteoarthritis"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"23","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8632-4596","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stine","family":"Clausen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5876-7410","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jan","family":"Hartvigsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9012-9128","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Eleanor","family":"Boyle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5425-2199","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ewa M.","family":"Roos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8235-1175","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dorte Thalund","family":"Gr\u00f8nne","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9003-3823","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Martin Thomsen","family":"Ernst","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9135-0780","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Bodil","family":"Arnbak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4336-7059","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"S\u00f8ren T.","family":"Skou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"2608_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1204","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30925-9","volume":"396","author":"GBD Diseases","year":"2020","unstructured":"Diseases GBD, Injuries C. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet. 2020;396:1204\u201322.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"2608_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1745","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)30417-9","volume":"393","author":"DJ Hunter","year":"2019","unstructured":"Hunter DJ, Bierma-Zeinstra S. Osteoarthritis. Lancet (London, England). 2019;393:1745\u201359.","journal-title":"Lancet (London, England)"},{"key":"2608_CR3","first-page":"1036","volume":"38","author":"ST Skou","year":"2020","unstructured":"Skou ST, Roos EM. Physical therapy for patients with knee and hip osteoarthritis: supervised, active treatment is current best practice study. Clin Exp Rheumatol. 2020;38:1036.","journal-title":"Clin Exp Rheumatol"},{"issue":"11","key":"2608_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1578","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joca.2019.06.011","volume":"27","author":"RR Bannuru","year":"2019","unstructured":"Bannuru RR, Osani MC, Vaysbrot EE, Arden NK, Bennell K, Bierma-Zeinstra SMA, et al. OARSI guidelines for the non-surgical management of knee, hip, and polyarticular osteoarthritis. Osteoarthritis and cartilage. 2019;27(11):1578\u201389. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.joca.2019.06.011.","journal-title":"Osteoarthritis and cartilage"},{"key":"2608_CR5","unstructured":"Clinical guideline. https:\/\/www.nice.org.uk\/guidance\/cg177\/chapter\/1-Recommendations#diagnosis-212 February 2014."},{"issue":"1","key":"2608_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"192","DOI":"10.1186\/s13075-019-1969-9","volume":"21","author":"CH Teirlinck","year":"2019","unstructured":"Teirlinck CH, Dorleijn DMJ, Bos PK, Rijkels-Otters JBM, Bierma-Zeinstra SMA, Luijsterburg PAJ. Prognostic factors for progression of osteoarthritis of the hip: a systematic review. Arthritis Res Ther. 2019;21(1):192. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s13075-019-1969-9.","journal-title":"Arthritis Res Ther"},{"issue":"1","key":"2608_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"W1","DOI":"10.7326\/M14-0698","volume":"162","author":"KG Moons","year":"2015","unstructured":"Moons KG, Altman DG, Reitsma JB, Ioannidis JP, Macaskill P, Steyerberg EW, et al. Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): explanation and elaboration. Ann Intern Med. 2015;162(1):W1\u201373. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7326\/M14-0698.","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"2608_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"72","DOI":"10.1186\/s12891-017-1439-y","volume":"18","author":"ST Skou","year":"2017","unstructured":"Skou ST, Roos EM. Good Life with osteoArthritis in Denmark (GLA:D\u2122): evidence-based education and supervised neuromuscular exercise delivered by certified physiotherapists nationwide. BMC Musculoskelet Disord. 2017;18(1):72. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12891-017-1439-y.","journal-title":"BMC Musculoskelet Disord"},{"key":"2608_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"449","DOI":"10.2147\/CLEP.S91125","volume":"7","author":"M Schmidt","year":"2015","unstructured":"Schmidt M, Schmidt SA, Sandegaard JL, Ehrenstein V, Pedersen L, S\u00f8rensen HT. The Danish National Patient Registry: a review of content, data quality, and research potential. Clin Epidemiol. 2015;7:449\u201390. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2147\/CLEP.S91125.","journal-title":"Clin Epidemiol"},{"issue":"24","key":"2608_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1544","DOI":"10.1136\/bjsports-2017-098904","volume":"52","author":"EM Roos","year":"2018","unstructured":"Roos EM, Barton CJ, Davis AM, McGlasson R, Kemp JL, Crossley KM, et al. GLA:D to have a high-value option for patients with knee and hip arthritis across four continents: Good Life with osteoArthritis from Denmark. Br J Sports Med. 2018;52(24):1544\u20135. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/bjsports-2017-098904.","journal-title":"Br J Sports Med"},{"issue":"8","key":"2608_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"541","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654-014-9930-3","volume":"29","author":"M Schmidt","year":"2014","unstructured":"Schmidt M, Pedersen L, S\u00f8rensen HT. The Danish Civil Registration System as a tool in epidemiology. European Journal of Epidemiology. 2014;29(8):541\u20139. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10654-014-9930-3.","journal-title":"European Journal of Epidemiology"},{"issue":"7","key":"2608_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1028","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2004.029546","volume":"64","author":"L Gossec","year":"2005","unstructured":"Gossec L, Tubach F, Baron G, Ravaud P, Logeart I, Dougados M. Predictive factors of total hip replacement due to primary osteoarthritis: a prospective 2 year study of 505 patients. Ann Rheum Dis. 2005;64(7):1028\u201332. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/ard.2004.029546.","journal-title":"Ann Rheum Dis"},{"issue":"663","key":"2608_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e724","DOI":"10.3399\/bjgp17X692165","volume":"67","author":"AN Bastick","year":"2017","unstructured":"Bastick AN, Damen J, Agricola R, Brouwer RW, Bindels PJ, Bierma-Zeinstra SM. Characteristics associated with joint replacement in early symptomatic knee or hip osteoarthritis: 6-year results from a nationwide prospective cohort study (CHECK). Br J Gen Pract. 2017;67(663):e724\u201331. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3399\/bjgp17X692165.","journal-title":"Br J Gen Pract"},{"issue":"3","key":"2608_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"141","DOI":"10.1002\/pri.411","volume":"13","author":"S Gill","year":"2008","unstructured":"Gill S, McBurney H. Reliability of performance-based measures in people awaiting joint replacement surgery of the hip or knee. Physiother Res Int. 2008;13(3):141\u201352. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/pri.411.","journal-title":"Physiother Res Int"},{"issue":"24","key":"2608_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3803","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2098","volume":"23","author":"AC Thi\u00e9baut","year":"2004","unstructured":"Thi\u00e9baut AC, B\u00e9nichou J. Choice of time-scale in Cox\u2019s model analysis of epidemiologic cohort data: a simulation study. Stat Med. 2004;23(24):3803\u201320. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/sim.2098.","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"issue":"9","key":"2608_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"683","DOI":"10.1136\/heartjnl-2011-301246","volume":"98","author":"KG Moons","year":"2012","unstructured":"Moons KG, Kengne AP, Woodward M, Royston P, Vergouwe Y, Altman DG, et al. Risk prediction models: I. Development, internal validation, and assessing the incremental value of a new (bio)marker. Heart. 2012;98(9):683\u201390. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/heartjnl-2011-301246.","journal-title":"Heart"},{"issue":"5","key":"2608_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"673","DOI":"10.1007\/s11135-006-9018-6","volume":"41","author":"RM O\u2019brien","year":"2007","unstructured":"O\u2019brien RM. A caution regarding rules of thumb for variance inflation factors. Quality & Quantity. 2007;41(5):673\u201390. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11135-006-9018-6.","journal-title":"Quality & Quantity"},{"issue":"2","key":"2608_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001381","volume":"10","author":"EW Steyerberg","year":"2013","unstructured":"Steyerberg EW, Moons KG, van der Windt DA, Hayden JA, Perel P, Schroter S, et al. Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 3: prognostic model research. PLoS Med. 2013;10(2):e1001381. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001381.","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"2608_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"103496","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jbi.2020.103496","volume":"108","author":"E Longato","year":"2020","unstructured":"Longato E, Vettoretti M, Di Camillo B. A practical perspective on the concordance index for the evaluation and selection of prognostic time-to-event models. J Biomed Inform. 2020;108:103496. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jbi.2020.103496.","journal-title":"J Biomed Inform"},{"key":"2608_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/0471722146","volume-title":"Applied logistic regression","author":"DWLS Hosmer","year":"2000","unstructured":"Hosmer DWLS. Applied logistic regression. 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons; 2000. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/0471722146.","edition":"2"},{"issue":"10","key":"2608_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1350","DOI":"10.1111\/1756-185X.13083","volume":"20","author":"C Dabare","year":"2017","unstructured":"Dabare C, Le Marshall K, Leung A, Page CJ, Choong PF, Lim KK. Differences in presentation, progression and rates of arthroplasty between hip and knee osteoarthritis: observations from an osteoarthritis cohort study-a clear role for conservative management. Int J Rheum Dis. 2017;20(10):1350\u201360. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/1756-185X.13083.","journal-title":"Int J Rheum Dis"},{"key":"2608_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gwynne-Jones JH, Wilson RA, Wong JMY, Abbott JH, Gwynne-Jones DP. The outcomes of nonoperative management of patients with hip and knee osteoarthritis triaged to a physiotherapy-led clinic at minimum 5-year follow-up and factors associated with progression to surgery. J Arthroplasty. 2020;35:1497\u2013503.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.arth.2020.01.086"},{"key":"2608_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"van Berkel AC, Schiphof D, Waarsing JH, Runhaar J, van Ochten JM, Bindels PJE, et al. 10-Year natural course of early hip osteoarthritis in middle-aged persons with hip pain: a CHECK study. Ann Rheum Dis. 2021;80 487\u201393.","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2020-218625"},{"issue":"7","key":"2608_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1385","DOI":"10.3899\/jrheum.130642","volume":"41","author":"A Villadsen","year":"2014","unstructured":"Villadsen A, Overgaard S, Holsgaard-Larsen A, Christensen R, Roos EM. Immediate efficacy of neuromuscular exercise in patients with severe osteoarthritis of the hip or knee: a secondary analysis from a randomized controlled trial. J Rheumatol. 2014;41(7):1385\u201394. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3899\/jrheum.130642.","journal-title":"J Rheumatol"},{"issue":"9","key":"2608_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1484","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2016-210815","volume":"76","author":"G Sakellariou","year":"2017","unstructured":"Sakellariou G, Conaghan PG, Zhang W, Bijlsma JWJ, Boyesen P, D'Agostino MA, et al. EULAR recommendations for the use of imaging in the clinical management of peripheral joint osteoarthritis. Ann Rheum Dis. 2017;76(9):1484\u201394. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/annrheumdis-2016-210815.","journal-title":"Ann Rheum Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"2608_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.3109\/13814788.2013.818132","volume":"20","author":"ST Skou","year":"2014","unstructured":"Skou ST, Thomsen H, Simonsen OH. The value of routine radiography in patients with knee osteoarthritis consulting primary health care: a study of agreement. Eur J Gen Pract. 2014;20(1):10\u20136. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3109\/13814788.2013.818132.","journal-title":"Eur J Gen Pract"},{"issue":"1","key":"2608_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"152","DOI":"10.1186\/s13075-015-0670-x","volume":"17","author":"AN Bastick","year":"2015","unstructured":"Bastick AN, Runhaar J, Belo JN, Bierma-Zeinstra SM. Prognostic factors for progression of clinical osteoarthritis of the knee: a systematic review of observational studies. Arthritis Res Ther. 2015;17(1):152. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s13075-015-0670-x.","journal-title":"Arthritis Res Ther"},{"issue":"10158","key":"2608_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1662","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)31777-X","volume":"392","author":"RJ Ferguson","year":"2018","unstructured":"Ferguson RJ, Palmer AJ, Taylor A, Porter ML, Malchau H, Glyn-Jones S. Hip replacement. Lancet. 2018;392(10158):1662\u201371. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)31777-X.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"2","key":"2608_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joca.2010.10.025","volume":"19","author":"L Gossec","year":"2011","unstructured":"Gossec L, Paternotte S, Maillefert JF, Combescure C, Conaghan PG, Davis AM, et al. The role of pain and functional impairment in the decision to recommend total joint replacement in hip and knee osteoarthritis: an international cross-sectional study of 1909 patients. Report of the OARSI-OMERACT Task Force on total joint replacement. Osteoarthritis Cartilage. 2011;19(2):147\u201354. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.joca.2010.10.025.","journal-title":"Osteoarthritis Cartilage"}],"container-title":["Arthritis Research &amp; Therapy"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s13075-021-02608-6.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1186\/s13075-021-02608-6\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s13075-021-02608-6.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,7]],"date-time":"2021-09-07T05:03:11Z","timestamp":1630990991000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/arthritis-research.biomedcentral.com\/articles\/10.1186\/s13075-021-02608-6"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,7]]},"references-count":29,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]}},"alternative-id":["2608"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s13075-021-02608-6","relation":{},"ISSN":["1478-6362"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1478-6362","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,7]]},"assertion":[{"value":"14 April 2021","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"14 August 2021","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"7 September 2021","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"According to Danish legislation ethics approval for registry-based studies are not required. The Danish Data Protection Agency at University of Southern Denmark (SDU) approved the GLA:D\u00ae register (approval no.: SDU; 10.084) and the current analyses (approval no.: SDU; 10.124).","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not applicable","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"Dr. Roos is deputy editor of Osteoarthritis and Cartilage, the developer of the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) and several other freely available patient-reported outcome measures and co-founder of Good Life with osteoArthritis in Denmark (GLA:D\u00ae), a not-for profit initiative hosted at University of Southern Denmark aimed at implementing clinical guidelines for osteoarthritis in clinical practice.Dr. Skou is associate editor of the Journal of Orthopedic & Sports Physical Therapy and has received grants from The Lundbeck Foundation and personal fees from Munksgaard, all of which are outside the submitted work. He is co-founder of GLA:D\u00ae.Professor Hartvigsen is co-developer of GLA:D\u00ae Back.Neither of the other co-authors had any conflicts to declare.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"235"}}