{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,11]],"date-time":"2026-03-11T18:48:14Z","timestamp":1773254894108,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,29]],"date-time":"2021-06-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1624924800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,29]],"date-time":"2021-06-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1624924800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["INV-005834"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["INV-005834"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"the Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province","award":["No: 2020Y0002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["No: 2020Y0002"]}]},{"name":"the Xiamen New Coronavirus Prevention and Control Emergency Tackling Special Topic Program","award":["No: 3502Z2020YJ03"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["No: 3502Z2020YJ03"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Infect Dis Poverty"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Hepatitis E, an acute zoonotic disease caused by the hepatitis E virus (HEV), has a relatively high burden in developing countries. The current research model on hepatitis E mainly uses experimental animal models (such as pigs, chickens, and rabbits) to explain the transmission of HEV. Few studies have developed a multi-host and multi-route transmission dynamic model (MHMRTDM) to explore the transmission feature of HEV. Hence, this study aimed to explore its transmission and evaluate the effectiveness of intervention using the dataset of Jiangsu Province.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>We developed a dataset comprising all reported HEV cases in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2018. The MHMRTDM was developed according to the natural history of HEV cases among humans and pigs and the multi-transmission routes such as person-to-person, pig-to-person, and\u00a0environment-to-person. We estimated the key parameter of the transmission using the principle of least root mean square to fit the curve of the MHMRTDM to the reported data. We developed models with single or combined countermeasures to assess the effectiveness of interventions, which include vaccination, shortening the infectious period, and cutting transmission routes. The indicator, total attack rate (<jats:italic>TAR<\/jats:italic>), was adopted to assess the effectiveness.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>From 2005 to 2018, 44 923 hepatitis E cases were reported in Jiangsu Province. The model fits the data well (<jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic><jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\u2009=\u20090.655, <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.001). The incidence of the disease in Jiangsu Province and its cities peaks are around March; however, transmissibility of the disease peaks in December and January. The model showed that the most effective intervention was interrupting the pig-to-person route during the incidence trough of September, thereby reducing the <jats:italic>TAR<\/jats:italic> by 98.11%, followed by vaccination (reducing the <jats:italic>TAR<\/jats:italic> by 76.25% when the vaccination coefficient is 100%) and shortening the infectious period (reducing the <jats:italic>TAR<\/jats:italic> by 50.05% when the infectious period is shortened to 15\u00a0days).<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>HEV could be controlled by interrupting the pig-to-person route, shortening the infectious period, and vaccination. Among these interventions, the most effective was interrupting the pig-to-person route.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Graphic Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                \n              <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-021-00873-w","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,29]],"date-time":"2021-06-29T13:02:46Z","timestamp":1624971766000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Feasibility of controlling hepatitis E in Jiangsu Province, China: a modelling study"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Meng","family":"Yang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xiao-Qing","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ze-Yu","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Pei-Hua","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jia","family":"Rui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sheng-Nan","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jing-Wen","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yuan-Zhao","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yao","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xing-Chun","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Li","family":"Luo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Bin","family":"Deng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Chan","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jie-Feng","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tian-Long","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zhuo-Yang","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Wei-Kang","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Wen-Dong","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ben-Hua","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yue","family":"He","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Qi","family":"Yin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Si-Ying","family":"Mao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yan-Hua","family":"Su","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xue-Feng","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0710-5086","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tian-Mu","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"873_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.1186\/s13567-014-0121-8","volume":"45","author":"J Schlosser","year":"2014","unstructured":"Schlosser J, Eiden M, Vina-Rodriguez A, Fast C, Dremsek P, Lange E, et al. 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Therefore, institutional review and informed consent were not required for this study. All data analysed were anonymised.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"The authors declare that they have no competing interests.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"91"}}