{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]],"date-time":"2025-10-09T13:40:35Z","timestamp":1760017235826,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]],"date-time":"2025-10-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1759968000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]],"date-time":"2025-10-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1759968000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002855","name":"Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["2024YFC2311404"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2024YFC2311404"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002855","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"Guangzhou National Laboratory","award":["SRPG22-007","GZNL2024A01004"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SRPG22-007","GZNL2024A01004"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Infect Dis Poverty"],"abstract":"Abstract<\/jats:title>\n \n Background<\/jats:title>\n The global outbreak of mpox that began in 2022 caused sustained human-to-human transmission and demonstrates distinct epidemiological characteristics compared to previous outbreaks. Our aim is to quantify temporal variation of mpox transmissibility within or between age groups and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in real time.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Methods<\/jats:title>\n The data used in this study is sourced from publicly available mpox confirmed cases data provided by WHO. We divided population into four age groups and constructed a transmission dynamics model with age structure of the population. And we estimated the transmissibilities of the monkeypox virus within or between age groups in real time by assimilation of global surveillance data from WHO, and performed intervention simulations in different scenarios we set up.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Results<\/jats:title>\n The effective reproduction number of mpox in the 18\u201344 age group is significantly higher than in other age groups, and it initially experiences a rapid increase, enters a phase of steady decrease after reaching a certain point [\n \n $${R}_{22}=1.33$$<\/jats:tex-math>\n \n \n \n R<\/mml:mi>\n 22<\/mml:mn>\n <\/mml:msub>\n =<\/mml:mo>\n 1.33<\/mml:mn>\n <\/mml:mrow>\n <\/mml:math>\n <\/jats:alternatives>\n <\/jats:inline-formula>, 95%\u00a0credible interval (CrI): 1.10\u20131.56]. Earlier implementation of interventions yields both superior effectiveness and greater cost-efficiency. Emergency vaccination for whole population initiated on June 15, 2022 reduced cumulative infections by 67.43% (95% CrI: 62.15\u201372.71) at only 40% coverage, whereas vaccination starting August 1, 2022 achieved only 47.86% (95% CrI: 42.70\u201353.01) reduction at 90% coverage. And high-risk-targeted and population-wide interventions showed limited effectiveness differences. Case management (3-day mean infectious period) initiated on July 15 achieved cumulative infection reductions of 59.84% (95% CrI: 54.28\u201365.40) when targeting the whole population, compared to 56.80% (95% CrI: 49.24\u201364.35) reduction when targeting only high-risk groups (aged 18\u201344\u00a0years).<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n The transmissibility of mpox within the 18\u201344 age group follows a distinct pattern of rapid growth\u2014slow decline not observed to the same extent in other age groups. Real-time estimation of mpox transmissibility within or between age groups helps us to understand the dynamic process of mpox interpersonal transmission better and evaluate the effect of various interventions in real world more promptly.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Graphical Abstract<\/jats:title>\n <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-025-01369-7","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]],"date-time":"2025-10-09T13:15:07Z","timestamp":1760015707000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Temporal and age-structured analysis of Mpox spread in the 2022 Global outbreak: data-assimilation insights for epidemic control"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Tao","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xiaohao","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xiaoli","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0710-5086","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tianmu","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"1369_CR1","unstructured":"Mpox. World Health Organization, Geneva. https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/fact-sheets\/detail\/mpox. Accessed 27 Aug 2023."},{"issue":"2","key":"1369_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010141","volume":"16","author":"EM Bunge","year":"2022","unstructured":"Bunge EM, Hoet B, Chen L, Lienert F, Weidenthaler H, Baer LR, et al. The changing epidemiology of human monkeypox\u2014A potential threat? A systematic review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2022;16(2):e0010141.","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"1369_CR3","unstructured":"2022\u201324 Mpox Outbreak: Global Trends. World Health Organization, Geneva. https:\/\/worldhealthorg.shinyapps.io\/mpx_global\/. Accessed 1 Sept 2023."},{"issue":"8","key":"1369_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"679","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2207323","volume":"387","author":"JP Thornhill","year":"2022","unstructured":"Thornhill JP, Barkati S, Walmsley S, Rockstroh J, Antinori A, Harrison LB, et al. Monkeypox Virus Infection in Humans across 16 Countries - April-June 2022. N Engl J Med. 2022;387(8):679\u201391.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"1369_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tar\u00edn-Vicente EJ, Alemany A, Agud-Dios M, Ubals M, Su\u00f1er C, Ant\u00f3n A, et al. Clinical presentation and virological assessment of confirmed human monkeypox virus cases in Spain: a prospective observational cohort study. Lancet. 2022 ;400(10353):661\u2212669. Erratum in: Lancet. 2022;400(10368):2048.","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(22)01436-2"},{"issue":"7","key":"1369_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1012","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(23)00198-5","volume":"11","author":"H Laurenson-Schafer","year":"2023","unstructured":"Laurenson-Schafer H, Sklenovsk\u00e1 N, Hoxha A, Kerr SM, Ndumbi P, Fitzner J, et al. Description of the first global outbreak of mpox: an analysis of global surveillance data. Lancet Glob Health. 2023;11(7):e1012\u201323.","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"key":"1369_CR7","unstructured":"Monkeypox: experts give virus variants new names. World Health Organization, Geneva. https:\/\/www.who.int\/news\/item\/12-08-2022-monkeypox--experts-give-virus-variants-new-names. Accessed 27 Aug 2023."},{"issue":"12","key":"1369_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1309","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(24)00531-0","volume":"24","author":"M Prochazka","year":"2024","unstructured":"Prochazka M, Vinti P, Hoxha A, Seale A, Mozalevskis A, Lewis R, et al. Temporary adaptations to sexual behaviour during the mpox outbreak in 23 countries in Europe and the Americas: findings from a retrospective cross-sectional online survey. Lancet Infect Dis. 2024;24(12):1309\u201318.","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"issue":"5","key":"1369_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"916","DOI":"10.3201\/eid3005.230676","volume":"30","author":"D Ogaz","year":"2024","unstructured":"Ogaz D, Enayat Q, Brown JRG, Phillips D, Wilkie R, Jayes D, et al. Mpox Diagnosis, behavioral risk modification, and vaccination uptake among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men, United Kingdom, 2022. Emerg Infect Dis. 2024;30(5):916\u201325.","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"issue":"35","key":"1369_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1131","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7135e2","volume":"71","author":"IH Spicknall","year":"2022","unstructured":"Spicknall IH, Pollock ED, Clay PA, Oster AM, Charniga K, Masters N, et al. Modeling the Impact of sexual networks in the transmission of Monkeypox virus among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men\u2014United States, 2022. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2022;71(35):1131\u20135.","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"issue":"4","key":"1369_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.28575","volume":"95","author":"NL Bragazzi","year":"2023","unstructured":"Bragazzi NL, Han Q, Iyaniwura SA, Omame A, Shausan A, Wang X, et al. Adaptive changes in sexual behavior in the high-risk population in response to human monkeypox transmission in Canada can help control the outbreak: insights from a two-group, two-route epidemic model. J Med Virol. 2023;95(4):e28575.","journal-title":"J Med Virol"},{"key":"1369_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tmaid.2024.102701","volume":"59","author":"C D\u00edaz-Brochero","year":"2024","unstructured":"D\u00edaz-Brochero C, Cucunub\u00e1 ZM. Epidemiological findings, estimates of the instantaneous reproduction number, and control strategies of the first Mpox outbreak in Latin America. Travel Med Infect Dis. 2024;59:102701.","journal-title":"Travel Med Infect Dis"},{"issue":"11","key":"1369_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1101436","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2023.1101436","volume":"17","author":"M Ngungu","year":"2023","unstructured":"Ngungu M, Addai E, Adeniji A, Adam UM, Oshinubi K. Mathematical epidemiological modeling and analysis of monkeypox dynamism with non-pharmaceutical intervention using real data from United Kingdom. Front Public Health. 2023;17(11):1101436.","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"1369_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-023-08083-5","volume":"23","author":"S Yang","year":"2023","unstructured":"Yang S, Guo X, Zhao Z, Abudunaibi B, Zhao Y, Rui J, et al. Possibility of mpox viral transmission and control from high-risk to the general population: a modeling study. BMC Infect Dis. 2023;23(1):119.","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"issue":"9","key":"1369_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e643","DOI":"10.1016\/S2666-5247(22)00183-5","volume":"3","author":"D Bisanzio","year":"2022","unstructured":"Bisanzio D, Reithinger R. Projected burden and duration of the 2022 Monkeypox outbreaks in non-endemic countries. Lancet Microbe. 2022;3(9):e643.","journal-title":"Lancet Microbe"},{"issue":"3","key":"1369_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1421","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciac723","volume":"76","author":"C Van Dijck","year":"2023","unstructured":"Van Dijck C, Hens N, Kenyon C, Tsoumanis A. The roles of unrecognized mpox cases, contact isolation and vaccination in determining epidemic size in Belgium: a modeling study. Clin Infect Dis. 2023;76(3):e1421\u20133.","journal-title":"Clin Infect Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"1369_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(23)00451-6","volume":"24","author":"XS Zhang","year":"2024","unstructured":"Zhang XS, Mandal S, Mohammed H, Turner C, Florence I, Walker J, et al. Transmission dynamics and effect of control measures on the 2022 outbreak of mpox among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in England: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2024;24(1):65\u201374.","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"1369_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Xiridou M, Miura F, Adam P, Op de Coul E, de Wit J, Wallinga J. The fading of the mpox outbreak among men who have sex with men: a mathematical modelling study. J Infect Dis. 2024;230(1):e121\u2212e130.","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiad414"},{"issue":"1","key":"1369_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.28137","volume":"95","author":"P Yuan","year":"2023","unstructured":"Yuan P, Tan Y, Yang L, Aruffo E, Ogden NH, B\u00e9lair J, et al. Assessing transmission risks and control strategy for monkeypox as an emerging zoonosis in a metropolitan area. J Med Virol. 2023;95(1):e28137.","journal-title":"J Med Virol"},{"key":"1369_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2023.100540","volume":"16","author":"J Molla","year":"2023","unstructured":"Molla J, Sekkak I, Mundo Ortiz A, Moyles I, Nasri B. Mathematical modeling of mpox: a scoping review. One Health. 2023;16:100540.","journal-title":"One Health"},{"key":"1369_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-03711-5","volume-title":"Data assimilation: The Ensemble Kalman filter","author":"G Evensen","year":"2009","unstructured":"Evensen G. Data assimilation: The Ensemble Kalman filter. 2nd ed. London: Springer-Verlag; 2009.","edition":"2"},{"key":"1369_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gelfand AE, Smith AFM. (1990). Sampling-based approaches to calculating marginal densities. J Am Stat Assoc. 1990;85(410):398\u2212409.","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1990.10476213"},{"issue":"1","key":"1369_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.28270","volume":"95","author":"F Branda","year":"2023","unstructured":"Branda F, Pierini M, Mazzoli S. Monkeypox: Early estimation of basic reproduction number R0 in Europe. J Med Virol. 2023;95(1):e28270.","journal-title":"J Med Virol"},{"key":"1369_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Du Z, Shao Z, Bai Y, Wang L, Herrera-Diestra JL, Fox SJ, et al. Reproduction number of monkeypox in the early stage of the 2022 multi-country outbreak. J Travel Med. 2022;29(8):taac099.","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taac099"},{"issue":"4","key":"1369_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004154","volume":"11","author":"AJ Kucharski","year":"2015","unstructured":"Kucharski AJ, Edmunds WJ. Characterizing the transmission potential of zoonotic infections from minor outbreaks. PLoS Comput Biol. 2015;11(4):e1004154.","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"issue":"10","key":"1369_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1004452","volume":"10","author":"S Blumberg","year":"2014","unstructured":"Blumberg S, Funk S, Pulliam JR. Detecting differential transmissibilities that affect the size of self-limited outbreaks. PLoS Pathog. 2014;10(10):e1004452.","journal-title":"PLoS Pathog"},{"issue":"1","key":"1369_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2196\/publichealth.9321","volume":"4","author":"S Baral","year":"2018","unstructured":"Baral S, Turner RM, Lyons CE, Howell S, Honermann B, Garner A, et al. Population size estimation of gay and bisexual men and other men who have sex with men using social media-based platforms. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2018;4(1):e15.","journal-title":"JMIR Public Health Surveill"},{"issue":"9","key":"1369_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1321","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(22)00411-X","volume":"22","author":"N Girometti","year":"2022","unstructured":"Girometti N, Byrne R, Bracchi M, Heskin J, McOwan A, Tittle V, et al. Demographic and clinical characteristics of confirmed human monkeypox virus cases in individuals attending a sexual health centre in London, UK: an observational analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2022;22(9):1321\u20138.","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"issue":"5","key":"1369_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"845","DOI":"10.1007\/s10865-016-9754-6","volume":"39","author":"K Fujimoto","year":"2016","unstructured":"Fujimoto K, Kim JY, Ross MW, Williams ML. Multiplex crack smoking and sexual networks: associations between network members\u2019 incarceration and HIV risks among high-risk MSM. J Behav Med. 2016;39(5):845\u201354.","journal-title":"J Behav Med"},{"issue":"10","key":"1369_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.29166","volume":"95","author":"W Shang","year":"2023","unstructured":"Shang W, Cao G, Wu Y, Kang L, Wang Y, Gao P, et al. Spatiotemporal cluster of mpox in men who have sex with men: A modeling study in 83 countries. J Med Virol. 2023;95(10):e29166.","journal-title":"J Med Virol"},{"issue":"25","key":"1369_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2024.06.021","volume":"42","author":"L Pischel","year":"2024","unstructured":"Pischel L, Martini BA, Yu N, Cacesse D, Tracy M, Kharbanda K, et al. Vaccine effectiveness of 3rd generation mpox vaccines against mpox and disease severity: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Vaccine. 2024;42(25):126053.","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"issue":"3","key":"1369_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"325","DOI":"10.3390\/v16030325","volume":"16","author":"NL Bragazzi","year":"2024","unstructured":"Bragazzi NL, Woldegerima WA, Wu J, Converti M, Szarpak L, Crapanzano A, et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of Mpox in cisgender and transgender women and non-binary individuals assigned to the female sex at birth: a comprehensive, critical global perspective. Viruses. 2024;16(3):325.","journal-title":"Viruses"},{"issue":"55","key":"1369_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2025.127014","volume":"10","author":"J MacGibbon","year":"2025","unstructured":"MacGibbon J, Storer D, Bavinton BR, Cornelisse VJ, Broady TR, Chan C, et al. Mpox vaccination coverage among Australian gay and bisexual men and non-binary people: Results of behavioural surveillance in early 2024. Vaccine. 2025;10(55):127014.","journal-title":"Vaccine"}],"container-title":["Infectious Diseases of Poverty"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s40249-025-01369-7.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1186\/s40249-025-01369-7\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s40249-025-01369-7.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]],"date-time":"2025-10-09T13:15:09Z","timestamp":1760015709000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/idpjournal.biomedcentral.com\/articles\/10.1186\/s40249-025-01369-7"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]]},"references-count":33,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]}},"alternative-id":["1369"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s40249-025-01369-7","relation":{},"ISSN":["2049-9957"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2049-9957","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]]},"assertion":[{"value":"9 May 2025","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"11 September 2025","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"9 October 2025","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"The authors declare that they have no competing interests.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"100"}}