{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,28]],"date-time":"2026-08-28T02:07:34Z","timestamp":1787882854597,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,2]],"date-time":"2026-03-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1772409600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,26]],"date-time":"2026-03-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1774483200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":24,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Trop Med Health"],"DOI":"10.1186\/s41182-026-00928-4","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,2]],"date-time":"2026-03-02T14:36:23Z","timestamp":1772462183000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Tuberculosis incidence and mortality trends in mainland China, 2004\u20132024: control program and elimination progress"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"54","author":[{"given":"Caini","family":"Mu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuncai","family":"Jia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Miaona","family":"Feng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yun","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shanhong","family":"Fan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xuan","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,2]]},"reference":[{"issue":"Suppl 1","key":"928_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S122","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tube.2015.02.021","volume":"95","author":"I Hershkovitz","year":"2015","unstructured":"Hershkovitz I, Donoghue HD, Minnikin DE, et al. Tuberculosis origin: The Neolithic scenario. Tuberculosis. 2015;95(Suppl 1):S122\u20136.","journal-title":"Tuberculosis"},{"key":"928_CR2","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Global Tuberculosis Report 2025. https:\/\/www.who.int\/teams\/global-programme-on-tuberculosis-and-lung-health\/tb-reports\/global-tuberculosis-report-2025. Accessed 3 Dec 2025."},{"key":"928_CR3","first-page":"407","volume":"7","author":"C Xu","year":"2025","unstructured":"Xu C, Zhao Y. Commit, invest and deliver: towards achieving end tuberculosis strategy goals through active case finding and preventive treatment in China. China CDC Wkly. 2025;7:407\u201312.","journal-title":"China CDC Wkly"},{"key":"928_CR4","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Global Tuberculosis Report 2024. https:\/\/www.who.int\/teams\/global-tuberculosis-programme\/tb-reports\/global-tuberculosis-report-2024. Accessed 25 Nov 2024."},{"key":"928_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"243","DOI":"10.46234\/ccdcw2021.070","volume":"3","author":"Y Zhao","year":"2021","unstructured":"Zhao Y, Liu J. Facing the challenge of tuberculosis: towards \u201cEnd TB in China by 2035.\u201d China CDC Wkly. 2021;3:243\u20136.","journal-title":"China CDC Wkly"},{"key":"928_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-025-24575-2","volume":"25","author":"H Lv","year":"2025","unstructured":"Lv H, Chen H, Zhang X, et al. Analyzing factors affecting tuberculosis incidence in various mainland Chinese economic regions and predicting trends: a comprehensive regression study. BMC Public Health. 2025;25:3282.","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"928_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-022-01009-4","volume":"11","author":"Z Dong","year":"2022","unstructured":"Dong Z, Wang Q-Q, Yu S-C, et al. Age-period-cohort analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis reported incidence, China, 2006-2020. Infect Dis Poverty. 2022;11:85.","journal-title":"Infect Dis Poverty"},{"key":"928_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2024.1436515","volume":"12","author":"J Guo","year":"2025","unstructured":"Guo J, Liu C, Liu F, et al. Tuberculosis disease burden in China: a spatio-temporal clustering and prediction study. Front Public Health. 2025;12:1436515.","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"928_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"154","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2022.12.008","volume":"86","author":"J Xu","year":"2023","unstructured":"Xu J, Wang Y, Liu F, et al. Changes of tuberculosis infection in mainland China before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. J Infect. 2023;86:154\u2013225.","journal-title":"J Infect"},{"key":"928_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1626232","volume":"13","author":"Z-Q Lu","year":"2025","unstructured":"Lu Z-Q, Feng S-C, Feng M, et al. Analysis of the trends and predictions of tuberculosis burden in China from 1990 to 2021 based on the GBD database. Front Public Health. 2025;13:1626232. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1626232.","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"928_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"70","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-024-01247-8","volume":"13","author":"H Lv","year":"2024","unstructured":"Lv H, Wang L, Zhang X, et al. Further analysis of tuberculosis in eight high-burden countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data. Infect Dis Poverty. 2024;13:70.","journal-title":"Infect Dis Poverty"},{"key":"928_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2021.679540","volume":"9","author":"J Li","year":"2021","unstructured":"Li J, Li S, Cao W, et al. Appraisal of China\u2019s response to the outbreak of COVID-19 in comparison with SARS. Front Public Health. 2021;9:679540.","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"928_CR13","first-page":"867","volume":"38","author":"HL Lyu","year":"2025","unstructured":"Lyu HL, Liu XH, Chen H, et al. Spatial-temporal dynamics of tuberculosis and its association with meteorological factors and air pollution in Shaanxi province, China. Biomed Environ Sci. 2025;38:867\u201372.","journal-title":"Biomed Environ Sci"},{"key":"928_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-024-09079-5","volume":"24","author":"H Lv","year":"2024","unstructured":"Lv H, Zhang X, Zhang X, et al. Global prevalence and burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis from 1990 to 2019. BMC Infect Dis. 2024;24:243.","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"928_CR15","first-page":"348","volume":"46","author":"JL Bernal","year":"2017","unstructured":"Bernal JL, Cummins S, Gasparrini A. Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. Int J Epidemiol. 2017;46:348\u201355.","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"key":"928_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2020.02.006","volume":"122","author":"SL Turner","year":"2020","unstructured":"Turner SL, Karahalios A, Forbes AB, et al. Design characteristics and statistical methods used in interrupted time series studies evaluating public health interventions: a review. J Clin Epidemiol. 2020;122:1\u201311.","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"928_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.13117","volume":"10","author":"M-M Kuan","year":"2022","unstructured":"Kuan M-M. Applying SARIMA, ETS, and hybrid models for prediction of tuberculosis incidence rate in Taiwan. PeerJ. 2022;10:e13117.","journal-title":"PeerJ"},{"key":"928_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-023-08799-4","volume":"23","author":"X Xian","year":"2023","unstructured":"Xian X, Wang L, Wu X, et al. Comparison of SARIMA model, Holt-winters model and ETS model in predicting the incidence of foodborne disease. BMC Infect Dis. 2023;23:803.","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"928_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-025-11483-4","volume":"25","author":"F Liu","year":"2025","unstructured":"Liu F, Dang C, Lv H, et al. Forecasting antimicrobial resistance in China using a hybrid ARIMA-GM(1,1) model. BMC Infect Dis. 2025;25:1020.","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"928_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"691","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(07)60316-X","volume":"369","author":"L Wang","year":"2007","unstructured":"Wang L, Liu J, Chin DP. Progress in tuberculosis control and the evolving public-health system in China. Lancet. 2007;369:691\u20136.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"928_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1910","DOI":"10.1093\/jac\/dkt103","volume":"68","author":"J-Y Chien","year":"2013","unstructured":"Chien J-Y, Lai C-C, Tan C-K, et al. Decline in rates of acquired multidrug-resistant tuberculosis after implementation of the directly observed therapy, short course (DOTS) and DOTS-Plus programmes in Taiwan. J Antimicrob Chemother. 2013;68:1910\u20136.","journal-title":"J Antimicrob Chemother"},{"issue":"1","key":"928_CR22","first-page":"10","volume":"2","author":"W Yang","year":"2011","unstructured":"Yang W, Li Z, Lan Y, et al. A nationwide web-based automated system for outbreak early detection and rapid response in China. Western Pac Surveill Response J. 2011;2(1):10\u20135.","journal-title":"Western Pac Surveill Response J"},{"key":"928_CR23","unstructured":"China National Radio, From Diagnosis to Reporting: The Time Interval of China\u2019s National Notifiable Infectious Diseases Direct Reporting System Reduced to 4 Hours. https:\/\/m.cnr.cn\/chanjing\/health\/20220626\/t20220626_525882919.html. Accessed 3 Dec 2025."},{"issue":"12","key":"928_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.18573","volume":"13","author":"J Zhang","year":"2024","unstructured":"Zhang J, Sun Z, Deng Q, et al. Temporal disruption in tuberculosis incidence patterns during COVID-19: a time series analysis in China. PeerJ. 2024;13(12):e18573.","journal-title":"PeerJ"},{"issue":"38","key":"928_CR25","first-page":"841","volume":"4","author":"T Li","year":"2022","unstructured":"Li T, Li J, Du X, et al. Age-specific pulmonary tuberculosis notification rates\u2014China, 2008\u20132018. China CDC Wkly. 2022;4(38):841\u20136.","journal-title":"China CDC Wkly"},{"issue":"9","key":"928_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1240","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/cit027","volume":"56","author":"NS Hochberg","year":"2013","unstructured":"Hochberg NS, Horsburgh CR Jr. Prevention of tuberculosis in older adults in the United States: obstacles and opportunities. Clin Infect Dis. 2013;56(9):1240\u20137.","journal-title":"Clin Infect Dis"},{"key":"928_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-024-01203-6","volume":"13","author":"L Deng","year":"2024","unstructured":"Deng L, Zhao F, Li Z, et al. Epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis incidence and its macro-influence factors in Chinese mainland during 2014\u20132021. Infect Dis Poverty. 2024;13:34.","journal-title":"Infect Dis Poverty"},{"key":"928_CR28","volume":"3","author":"H Fei","year":"2020","unstructured":"Fei H, Yinyin X, Hui C, et al. The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on tuberculosis control in China. Lancet Reg Health. 2020;3:100032.","journal-title":"Lancet Reg Health"},{"key":"928_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"807","DOI":"10.1007\/s40266-021-00880-4","volume":"38","author":"I Hase","year":"2021","unstructured":"Hase I, Toren KG, Hirano H, et al. Pulmonary tuberculosis in older adults: increased mortality related to tuberculosis within two months of treatment initiation. Drugs Aging. 2021;38:807\u201315.","journal-title":"Drugs Aging"},{"key":"928_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1412","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(23)00312-1","volume":"11","author":"H Surendra","year":"2023","unstructured":"Surendra H, Elyazar IRF, Puspaningrum E, et al. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis control in Indonesia: a nationwide longitudinal analysis of programme data. Lancet Glob Health. 2023;11:e1412\u201321.","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"928_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"122","DOI":"10.1186\/s41182-025-00805-6","volume":"53","author":"KH Oh","year":"2025","unstructured":"Oh KH, Teo AKJ, Yanagawa M, Regional TB Consortium, et al. Progress and challenges in tuberculosis preventive treatment in the Western Pacific Region: a situational analysis of seven high tuberculosis burden countries. Trop Med Health. 2025;53(1):122.","journal-title":"Trop Med Health"},{"key":"928_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-019-3910-x","volume":"19","author":"X Wang","year":"2019","unstructured":"Wang X, Yin S, Li Y, et al. Spatiotemporal epidemiology of, and factors associated with, the tuberculosis prevalence in northern China, 2010-2014. BMC Infect Dis. 2019;19:365.","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"928_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-024-09994-7","volume":"24","author":"V Overbeck","year":"2024","unstructured":"Overbeck V, Malatesta S, Carney T, et al. Understanding the impact of pandemics on long-term medication adherence: directly observed therapy in a tuberculosis treatment cohort pre- and post-COVID-19 lockdowns. BMC Infect Dis. 2024;24:1154.","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"928_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"603","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-2600(22)00092-3","volume":"10","author":"K Dheda","year":"2022","unstructured":"Dheda K, Perumal T, Moultrie H, et al. The intersecting pandemics of tuberculosis and COVID-19: population-level and patient-level impact, clinical presentation, and corrective interventions. Lancet Respir Med. 2022;10:603\u201322.","journal-title":"Lancet Respir Med"}],"container-title":["Tropical Medicine and Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1186\/s41182-026-00928-4","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s41182-026-00928-4.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s41182-026-00928-4.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,26]],"date-time":"2026-03-26T08:31:49Z","timestamp":1774513909000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1186\/s41182-026-00928-4"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,2]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,12]]}},"alternative-id":["928"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s41182-026-00928-4","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.21203\/rs.3.rs-8318476\/v1","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1349-4147"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1349-4147","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,2]]},"assertion":[{"value":"9 December 2025","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"13 February 2026","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"2 March 2026","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"57"}}