{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]],"date-time":"2026-08-03T14:14:29Z","timestamp":1785766469768,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,28]],"date-time":"2021-08-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1630108800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,28]],"date-time":"2021-08-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1630108800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["BMC Rheumatol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Elevated serum urate (SU) concentration is the central risk factor for the development of gout. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence of gout in people with low and normal SU levels (&lt;\u20097.00\u2009mg\/dL).<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Longitudinal cohort data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC), Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA), and both the Original and Offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) were used to determine incident gout by baseline SU over 3, 5, 10, 12 and 15\u2009year periods. A Cox proportional hazards model with covariables of age, gender, ethnicity, and cohort was calculated to report the hazard ratios (HR) for incident gout.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>The incidence of gout at 15\u2009years for a baseline SU &lt;\u20094.00\u2009mg\/dL was 0.59%, 4.00\u20134.49\u2009mg\/dL was 1.28%, 4.50\u20134.99\u2009mg\/dL was 0.86%, 5.00\u20135.49\u2009mg\/dL was 0.94%, 5.50\u20135.99\u2009mg\/dL was 1.52%, 6.00\u20136.49\u2009mg\/dL was 2.91%, 6.50\u20136.99\u2009mg\/dL was 3.2%, and\u2009&gt;\u20097.00\u2009mg\/dL was 12.2%. In an adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, compared to the referent baseline SU &lt;\u20094.00\u2009mg\/dL, there was a non-significant increase in incident gout for baseline SU bands between 4.00\u20135.49\u2009mg\/dL, whereas incident gout was significantly increased for SU 5.50\u20135.99\u2009mg\/dL (HR 2.60), 6.00\u20136.49\u2009mg\/dL (HR 3.70), 6.50\u20136.99\u2009mg\/dL (HR 5.24) and\u2009&gt;\u20097.00\u2009mg\/dL (HR 18.62).<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>A baseline SU of 5.50\u2009mg\/dL or more is a risk factor for development of gout over 15\u2009years. However, incident gout does occur over time in a small proportion of people with lower baseline SU levels.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s41927-021-00204-4","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,27]],"date-time":"2021-08-27T23:07:15Z","timestamp":1630105635000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Longitudinal development of incident gout from low-normal baseline serum urate concentrations: individual participant data analysis"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"5","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3156-3418","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Philip C.","family":"Robinson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christopher","family":"Frampton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Amanda","family":"Phipps-Green","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tuhina","family":"Neogi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lisa","family":"Stamp","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6075-8479","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"William","family":"Taylor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tony R.","family":"Merriman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicola","family":"Dalbeth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,28]]},"reference":[{"issue":"3","key":"204_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"421","DOI":"10.1016\/0002-9343(87)90441-4","volume":"82","author":"EW Campion","year":"1987","unstructured":"Campion EW, Glynn RJ, DeLabry LO. 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The component studies (ARIC, FHS, CARDIA) had separate IRB approvals, described at . This study was approved by the University of Otago Human Health Ethics Committee.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"Philip Robinson reports personal fees from Abbvie, Eli Lilly, Gilead, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer Roche, UCB Pharma; grants from Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer and UCB and non-financial support from BMS all outside the submitted work; Christopher Frampton declares he has no competing interests; Amanda Phipps-Green declares she has no competing interests; Tuhina Neogi declares she has no competing interests, Lisa Stamp declares she has no competing interests, William Taylor declares he has no competing interests; Tony R. Merriman declares he has no competing interests and Nicola Dalbeth reports grants and personal fees from AstraZeneca, personal fees from Kowa, Horizon, Abbvie, Jansen, Hengrui, Dyve Biosciences, Selecta, and Arthrosi, and grants from Amgen outside the submitted work.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"33"}}