{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,8]],"date-time":"2025-10-08T16:11:09Z","timestamp":1759939869022},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,12]],"date-time":"2023-07-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1689120000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,12]],"date-time":"2023-07-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1689120000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["BMC Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>Previous studies have quantified the current burden of diseases attributable to overweight in Chile. However, no study has estimated the attributable burden of overweight in the future. Herein, we estimated the potential impact of different trajectories in the prevalence of overweight on the incidence and mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Chilean adults from 2019 to 2030.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>A multistate life table modelling was used to estimate the business-as-usual (BAU:\u00a0if the current rate of increase in BMI persist through the next 11\u00a0years; i.e., 0.4% per year from 2003 to 2017) and three counterfactual scenarios\u00a0(1: the increase\u00a0rate of overweight is reduced by half; 2: maintanance\u00a0of the current prevalence of\u00a0overweight; 3: the prevalence of\u00a0overweight is reduced by 6.7%) over a 11-year simulation period for burden of NCDs attributable to overweight in Chilean adults aged 20 to 80\u00a0years. The model inputs included nationally representative data of body mass index, national official demographic records, NCDs from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019, and relative risks from a published\u00a0meta-analysis.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>If the current trends of increase in overweight are maintained in Chile, approximately, 669 thousand cases and 117 thousand deaths from NCDs will occur from 2020 to 2030. In case the increase\u00a0rate of overweight is reduced by half during this period, around 7 thousand cases and 1.4 thousand deaths from NCDs would be prevented, while achieving no increase in the prevalence of overweight would avert 10 thousand cases and 2 thousand deaths. In the optimistic scenario of reducing the prevalence of overweight by 6.7% until 2030, approximately 25 thousand cases and 5 thousand deaths from NCDs would be prevented.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>We estimated that the number of NCDs cases and deaths that could be avoided by decreasing the prevalence of overweight in Chilean adults. Preventive programs aimed to reduce overweight may have a high impact on the future burden of NCDs in Chile.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-023-16255-w","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,12]],"date-time":"2023-07-12T09:02:14Z","timestamp":1689152534000},"update-policy":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Future burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Chile: a multistate life table modeling study"],"prefix":"10.1186","volume":"23","author":[{"given":"Rodrigo","family":"Fuentes","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Eduardo","family":"Nilson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Leandro F. M.","family":"Rezende","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Diego Giulliano Destro","family":"Christofaro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Danilo R.","family":"Silva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Paloma","family":"Ferrero-Hern\u00e1ndez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Carlos","family":"Cristi-Montero","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Adilson","family":"Marques","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Claudio","family":"Far\u00edas-Valenzuela","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Gerson","family":"Ferrari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,12]]},"reference":[{"issue":"25","key":"16255_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2982","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jacc.2020.11.010","volume":"76","author":"GA Roth","year":"2020","unstructured":"Roth GA, Mensah GA, Johnson CO, Addolorato G, Ammirati E, Baddour LM, Barengo NC, Beaton AZ, Benjamin EJ, Benziger CP, et al. Global burden of cardiovascular diseases and risk factors, 1990\u20132019: update from the GBD 2019 study. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2020;76(25):2982\u20133021.","journal-title":"J Am Coll Cardiol"},{"issue":"20","key":"16255_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2529","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jacc.2019.10.009","volume":"74","author":"GA Mensah","year":"2019","unstructured":"Mensah GA, Roth GA, Fuster V. The global burden of cardiovascular diseases and risk factors: 2020 and beyond. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2019;74(20):2529\u201332.","journal-title":"J Am Coll Cardiol"},{"issue":"10184","key":"16255_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1958","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)30041-8","volume":"393","author":"GBDD Collaborators","year":"2019","unstructured":"Collaborators GBDD. Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990\u20132017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet. 2019;393(10184):1958\u201372.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"1","key":"16255_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1614362","volume":"377","author":"GBDO Collaborators","year":"2017","unstructured":"Collaborators GBDO, Afshin A, Forouzanfar MH, Reitsma MB, Sur P, Estep K, Lee A, Marczak L, Mokdad AH, Moradi-Lakeh M, et al. Health effects of overweight and obesity in 195 countries over 25 years. N Engl J Med. 2017;377(1):13\u201327.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"16255_CR5","unstructured":"World Health Organization (WHO). Obesity and overweight. 2021. https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/fact-sheets\/detail\/obesity-and-overweight. Accessed on the 16 Sep 2021."},{"issue":"1","key":"16255_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"21702","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-01167-9","volume":"11","author":"MJ Aburto","year":"2021","unstructured":"Aburto MJ, Romero D, Rezende LFM, Sanchez ZM, Bolados CC, Guzman-Habinger J, Rios M, Suarez-Reyes M, Marques A, Drenowatz C, et al. Prevalence and co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors for non-communicable diseases according to sociodemographic characteristics among adults Chilean residents. Sci Rep. 2021;11(1):21702.","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"issue":"1","key":"16255_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"15500","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-94974-z","volume":"11","author":"R Riquelme","year":"2021","unstructured":"Riquelme R, Rezende LFM, Guzman-Habinger J, Chavez JL, Celis-Morales C, Ferreccio C, Ferrari G. Non-communicable diseases deaths attributable to high body mass index in Chile. Sci Rep. 2021;11(1):15500.","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"issue":"1","key":"16255_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"693","DOI":"10.1186\/s12885-020-07187-4","volume":"20","author":"LFM Rezende","year":"2020","unstructured":"Rezende LFM, Murata E, Giannichi B, Tomita LY, Wagner GA, Sanchez ZM, Celis-Morales C, Ferrari G. Cancer cases and deaths attributable to lifestyle risk factors in Chile. BMC Cancer. 2020;20(1):693.","journal-title":"BMC Cancer"},{"issue":"9859","key":"16255_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2224","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(12)61766-8","volume":"380","author":"SS Lim","year":"2012","unstructured":"Lim SS, Vos T, Flaxman AD, Danaei G, Shibuya K, Adair-Rohani H, Amann M, Anderson HR, Andrews KG, Aryee M, et al. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990\u20132010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet. 2012;380(9859):2224\u201360.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"4","key":"16255_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1000058","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1000058","volume":"6","author":"G Danaei","year":"2009","unstructured":"Danaei G, Ding EL, Mozaffarian D, Taylor B, Rehm J, Murray CJ, Ezzati M. The preventable causes of death in the United States: comparative risk assessment of dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors. PLoS Med. 2009;6(4):e1000058.","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"16255_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"22483","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-26739-1","volume":"12","author":"EAF Nilson","year":"2022","unstructured":"Nilson EAF, Gianicchi B, Ferrari G, Rezende LFM. The projected burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030. Sci Rep. 2022;12(1):22483.","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"16255_CR12","volume-title":"Encuesta Nacional de Salud 2016\u20132017-Ministerio de Salud","author":"MINSAL","year":"2017","unstructured":"MINSAL. Encuesta Nacional de Salud 2016\u20132017-Ministerio de Salud. Santiago: MINSAL; 2017."},{"key":"16255_CR13","volume-title":"Encuesta Nacional de Salud 2009\u20132010","author":"MINSAL","year":"2010","unstructured":"MINSAL. Encuesta Nacional de Salud 2009\u20132010. Chile: Ministerio de Salud; 2010."},{"key":"16255_CR14","unstructured":"MINSAL. Encuesta Nacional de Salud. Chile: Ministerio de Salud, Gobierno de Chile; 2003. Available at: https:\/\/www.medicinadefamiliares.cl\/Protocolos\/encnacsalres.pdf. Accessed 15 Aug 2019 ."},{"issue":"9669","key":"16255_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1083","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(09)60318-4","volume":"373","author":"C Prospective Studies","year":"2009","unstructured":"Prospective Studies C, Whitlock G, Lewington S, Sherliker P, Clarke R, Emberson J, Halsey J, Qizilbash N, Collins R, Peto R. Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies. Lancet. 2009;373(9669):1083\u201396.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"16255_CR16","unstructured":"Available from: https:\/\/health.gov\/healthypeople."},{"key":"16255_CR17","unstructured":"Departamento de Estad\u00edsticas e Informaci\u00f3n de Salud (DEIS). Estad\u00edstica de defunciones por causa b\u00e1sica de muerte. Chile: Ministerio de Salud. https:\/\/deis.minsal.cl."},{"issue":"5","key":"16255_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"448","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMra1201534","volume":"369","author":"CJ Murray","year":"2013","unstructured":"Murray CJ, Lopez AD. Measuring the global burden of disease. N Engl J Med. 2013;369(5):448\u201357.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"16255_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1478-7954-1-4","volume":"1","author":"JJ Barendregt","year":"2003","unstructured":"Barendregt JJ, Van Oortmarssen GJ, Vos T, Murray CJ. A generic model for the assessment of disease epidemiology: the computational basis of DisMod II. Popul Health Metr. 2003;1(1): 4.","journal-title":"Popul Health Metr"},{"issue":"10046","key":"16255_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"776","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(16)30175-1","volume":"388","author":"E Di Angelantonio","year":"2016","unstructured":"Global BMIMC, Di Angelantonio E, Bhupathiraju SN, Wormser D, Gao P, Kaptoge S, Berrington de Gonzalez A, Cairns BJ, Huxley R, Jackson CL, et al. Body-mass index and all-cause mortality: individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 239 prospective studies in four continents. Lancet. 2016;388(10046):776\u201386.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"16255_CR21","unstructured":"Barendregt JJ JJ. Ersatz user guide. 2017. p. 76 Available from: https:\/\/www.epigear.com\/index_files\/ErsatzUserGuide.pdf."},{"issue":"5","key":"16255_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"512","DOI":"10.1097\/01.ede.0000229155.05644.43","volume":"17","author":"K Steenland","year":"2006","unstructured":"Steenland K, Armstrong B. An overview of methods for calculating the burden of disease due to specific risk factors. Epidemiology. 2006;17(5):512\u20139.","journal-title":"Epidemiology"},{"key":"16255_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"82","DOI":"10.1016\/j.puhe.2022.03.015","volume":"207","author":"G Ferrari","year":"2022","unstructured":"Ferrari G, Giannichi B, Resende B, Paiva L, Rocha R, Falbel F, Rache B, Adami F, Rezende LFM. The economic burden of overweight and obesity in Brazil: perspectives for the Brazilian Unified Health System. Public Health. 2022;207:82\u20137.","journal-title":"Public Health"},{"issue":"2","key":"16255_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"177","DOI":"10.1007\/s10198-021-01358-1","volume":"23","author":"M d\u2019Errico","year":"2022","unstructured":"d\u2019Errico M, Pavlova M, Spandonaro F. The economic burden of obesity in Italy: a cost-of-illness study. Eur J Health Econ. 2022;23(2):177\u201392.","journal-title":"Eur J Health Econ"},{"issue":"9","key":"16255_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1114","DOI":"10.4067\/s0034-98872019000901114","volume":"147","author":"F Vio","year":"2019","unstructured":"Vio F, Kain J. [Increasing frequency of obesity in Chile]. Rev Med Chil. 2019;147(9):1114\u201321.","journal-title":"Rev Med Chil"},{"issue":"9","key":"16255_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1724","DOI":"10.1002\/oby.23472","volume":"30","author":"X Sun","year":"2022","unstructured":"Sun X, Yan AF, Shi Z, Zhao B, Yan N, Li K, Gao L, Xue H, Peng W, Cheskin LJ, et al. Health consequences of obesity and projected future obesity health burden in China. Obes (Silver Spring). 2022;30(9):1724\u201351.","journal-title":"Obes (Silver Spring)"},{"issue":"1","key":"16255_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"155","DOI":"10.1186\/s13098-022-00928-4","volume":"14","author":"MA Espinoza","year":"2022","unstructured":"Espinoza MA, Abbott T, Passi A, Balmaceda C. Health and economic effects on patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in the long run: predictions for the Chilean population. Diabetol Metab Syndr. 2022;14(1):155.","journal-title":"Diabetol Metab Syndr"},{"issue":"7","key":"16255_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"473","DOI":"10.7326\/M16-0273","volume":"165","author":"D Murphy","year":"2016","unstructured":"Murphy D, McCulloch CE, Lin F, Banerjee T, Bragg-Gresham JL, Eberhardt MS, Morgenstern H, Pavkov ME, Saran R, Powe NR, et al. Trends in prevalence of chronic kidney disease in the United States. Ann Intern Med. 2016;165(7):473\u201381.","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"16255_CR29","first-page":"e156","volume":"41","author":"L Rodriguez Osiac","year":"2017","unstructured":"Rodriguez Osiac L, Cofre C, Pizarro T, Mansilla C, Herrera CA, Burrows J, Castillo C. Using evidence-informed policies to tackle overweight and obesity in Chile. Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2017;41:e156.","journal-title":"Rev Panam Salud Publica"},{"key":"16255_CR30","unstructured":"Orientaciones y lineamientos programa Vida Sana 2015: Intervenci\u00f3n en Factores de Riesgo de Enferemedades no Transmissibles. Ministerio de Salud. Gobierno de Chile. 2015. http:\/\/www.bibliotecaminsal.cl\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/015.OT-Vida-Sana.pdf."},{"issue":"4","key":"16255_CR31","first-page":"807","volume":"38","author":"F Mellado Pena","year":"2021","unstructured":"Mellado Pena F, Mitchell NS, Leyton Dinamarca B, Kain Berkovic J. The degree of engagement of overweight\/obese adult women in the recommended activities of the chilean \u201cVida Sana\u201d program is directly correlated with its effectiveness. Nutr Hosp. 2021;38(4):807\u201313.","journal-title":"Nutr Hosp"}],"container-title":["BMC Public Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s12889-023-16255-w.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1186\/s12889-023-16255-w\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1186\/s12889-023-16255-w.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,12]],"date-time":"2023-07-12T09:02:44Z","timestamp":1689152564000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com\/articles\/10.1186\/s12889-023-16255-w"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,12]]},"references-count":31,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,12]]}},"alternative-id":["16255"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12889-023-16255-w","relation":{},"ISSN":["1471-2458"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1471-2458","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,12]]},"assertion":[{"value":"10 April 2023","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"6 July 2023","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"12 July 2023","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The protocol of study was approved by the Ethics and Research Committee of the Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH) (records no. 224\/2022). The protocol of each wave of the National Healthy Survey from Chile was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica de Chile (Pontifical Catholic University of Chile\u2014(records no. 16\u2013019), institution in charge of the studies. Participants signed an informed consent to take part in the study.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"1337"}}