{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,3]],"date-time":"2026-10-03T17:07:18Z","timestamp":1791047238815,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":19,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2003,6,1]],"date-time":"2003-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1054425600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Stat Methods Med Res"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2003,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p> Incubation period of the new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) from infection to clinical onset and the eventual impact of the disease remain major concerns. Based on i) epidemiological conceptualization of human exposure to BSE contaminated material, ii) exponentially decreasing susceptibility after 15 years of age, and iii) typical incubation period (IP) distributions for time from infection to onset, we have previously estimated mean incubation period and projected number of vCJD cases. In this paper, we investigate the robustness of these estimates with respect to i-iii using the UK\u2019s 113 vCJD cases with clinical onset before December 2000. Mean incubation period was estimated at 16.4 years (95% CI 11.4-24.8), 15.9 years (95% CI 11.4-22.0), 14.1 years (95% CI 10.4-24.2) with the log-normal, Gamma and Weibull distributions respectively. Corresponding predictions for the total size of the epidemic ranged from 183 to 304. Maximal susceptibility to infection between 1.3 and 15.9 years and decreasing by 15% per year of age thereafter yielded the best fit. The shape of the IP distribution did not affect the predictions. In summary, within a set of reasonable assumptions, mean incubation period for vCJD ranged from 15 to 20 years, and the eventual impact of vCJD was a few hundred patients. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1191\/0962280203sm329ra","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2003,5,23]],"date-time":"2003-05-23T23:31:58Z","timestamp":1053732718000},"page":"221-233","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Modelling the epidemic of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the UK based                 on age characteristics: updated, detailed analysis"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Pierre-yves","family":"Bo\u00eblle","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Epid\u00e9miologie et Sciences de l\u2019Information, INSERM                         U444, Assistance Publique, H\u00f4pitaux de Paris,                         Universit\u00e9 Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Guy","family":"Thomas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epid\u00e9miologie et Sciences de l\u2019Information, INSERM                         U444, Assistance Publique, H\u00f4pitaux de Paris,                         Universit\u00e9 Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alain-Jacques","family":"Valleron","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epid\u00e9miologie et Sciences de l\u2019Information, INSERM                         U444, Assistance Publique, H\u00f4pitaux de Paris,                         Universit\u00e9 Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jean-Yves","family":"Cesbron","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Immunit\u00e9 Anti-Infectieuse JE 2236, UFR de M\u00e9decine                         de Grenoble, Universit\u00e9 Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Robert","family":"Will","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Creutzfeldt-Jacob Disease Surveillance Unit, Western General                         Hospital, Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2003,6,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"atypb1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(96)91412-9"},{"key":"atypb2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/39057"},{"key":"atypb3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2002.2156"},{"key":"atypb4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/385197a0"},{"key":"atypb5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/35020688"},{"key":"atypb6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1066838"},{"key":"atypb7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1108\/00070709910251469"},{"key":"atypb8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1064748"},{"key":"atypb9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2530689"},{"key":"atypb10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2983150"},{"key":"atypb11","volume-title":"Statistical aspects of BSE and vCJD: models for epidemics","author":"Ferguson N","year":"2000"},{"key":"atypb12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a120576"},{"key":"atypb13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature709"},{"key":"atypb14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2000.0641"},{"key":"atypb15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00001648-200207000-00007"},{"key":"atypb16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.315.7105.404"},{"key":"atypb17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/147666502321082719"},{"key":"atypb18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.320.7228.145"},{"key":"atypb19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.325.7365.633"}],"container-title":["Statistical Methods in Medical Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1191\/0962280203sm329ra","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1191\/0962280203sm329ra","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,2]],"date-time":"2025-03-02T04:27:34Z","timestamp":1740889654000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1191\/0962280203sm329ra"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2003,6]]},"references-count":19,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2003,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1191\/0962280203sm329ra"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1191\/0962280203sm329ra","relation":{},"ISSN":["0962-2802","1477-0334"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0962-2802","type":"print"},{"value":"1477-0334","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2003,6]]}}}