{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T18:33:53Z","timestamp":1790015633754,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"Royal College of Psychiatrists","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,8]],"date-time":"2021-03-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1615161600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Br J Psychiatry"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"S0007125021000180_sec_a1\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Mental health policy makers require evidence-based information to optimise effective care provision based on local need, but tools are unavailable.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"S0007125021000180_sec_a2\">\n                    <jats:title>Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To develop and validate a population-level prediction model for need for early intervention in psychosis (EIP) care for first-episode psychosis (FEP) in England up to 2025, based on epidemiological evidence and demographic projections.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"S0007125021000180_sec_a3\" sec-type=\"methods\">\n                    <jats:title>Method<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We used Bayesian Poisson regression to model small-area-level variation in FEP incidence for people aged 16\u201364 years. We compared six candidate models, validated against observed National Health Service FEP data in 2017. Our best-fitting model predicted annual incidence case-loads for EIP services in England up to 2025, for probable FEP, treatment in EIP services, initial assessment by EIP services and referral to EIP services for \u2018suspected psychosis\u2019. Forecasts were stratified by gender, age and ethnicity, at national and Clinical Commissioning Group levels.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"S0007125021000180_sec_a4\" sec-type=\"results\">\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A model with age, gender, ethnicity, small-area-level deprivation, social fragmentation and regional cannabis use provided best fit to observed new FEP cases at national and Clinical Commissioning Group levels in 2017 (predicted 8112, 95% CI 7623\u20138597; observed 8038, difference of 74 [0.92%]). By 2025, the model forecasted 11 067 new treated cases per annum (95% CI 10 383\u201311 740). For every 10 new treated cases, 21 and 23 people would be assessed by and referred to EIP services for suspected psychosis, respectively.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"S0007125021000180_sec_a5\" sec-type=\"conclusions\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Our evidence-based methodology provides an accurate, validated tool to inform clinical provision of EIP services about future population need for care, based on local variation of major social determinants of psychosis.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1192\/bjp.2021.18","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,7]],"date-time":"2021-03-07T19:01:31Z","timestamp":1615143691000},"page":"383-391","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":30,"title":["Using epidemiological evidence to forecast population need for early treatment programmes in mental health: a generalisable Bayesian prediction methodology applied to and validated for first-episode psychosis in England"],"prefix":"10.1192","volume":"219","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0204-9049","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Keltie","family":"McDonald","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tao","family":"Ding","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hannah","family":"Ker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thandiwe Rebecca","family":"Dliwayo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2519-1539","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"David P.J.","family":"Osborn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pia","family":"Wohland","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9480-0257","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jeremy W.","family":"Coid","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4300-387X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paul","family":"French","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter B.","family":"Jones","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gianluca","family":"Baio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3401-0824","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"James B.","family":"Kirkbride","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"170","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref48","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Version 1.9.1","year":"2013"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/09540261.2019.1643704"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1192\/bjp.2018.298"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref44","unstructured":"44 NHS Clinical Commissioners., About CCGs. NHS, 2021 (https:\/\/www.nhscc.org\/ccgs\/)."},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1192\/pb.bp.114.047746"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(19)30056-8"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0033291710001406"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref40","first-page":"1","article-title":"The impacts of international migration on the UK's ethnic populations","volume":"46","author":"Lomax","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Ethn Migr Stud"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref43","unstructured":"43 Mcmanus, S , Bebbington, P , Jenkins, R , Brugha, T . Mental Health and Wellbeing in England: Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2014 Executive Summary. NHS Digital, 2016 (https:\/\/digital.nhs.uk\/data-and-information\/publications\/statistical\/adult-psychiatric-morbidity-survey\/adult-psychiatric-morbidity-survey-survey-of-mental-health-and-wellbeing-england-2014)."},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref27","volume-title":"Population Estimates for UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: Mid-2018, using April 2019 Local Authority District Codes","year":"2019"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(07)61162-3"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref22","volume-title":"Psychosis and Schizophrenia in Adults - Quality Standard [QS80]","year":"2015"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/schbul\/sbx010"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref4","volume-title":"Whole-Person Care: from Rhetoric to Reality: Achieving Parity of Esteem between Mental and Physical Health","volume":"OP88","year":"2013"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0082365"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref23","unstructured":"23 National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). Psychosis and Schizophrenia in Adults: Prevention and Management - Clinical Guidance [CG178]. NICE, 2014 (https:\/\/www.nice.org.uk\/guidance\/cg178)."},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.f185"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref41","volume-title":"Mid-2001 to Mid-2017 Population Estimates for 2018 Wards in England and Wales by Single Year of Age and Sex","year":"2019"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/eip.12514"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/wps.20619"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-clinpsy-050817-084934"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0447.2012.01913.x"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref21","unstructured":"21 Department of Health. Annual Report of the Chief Medical Officer 2013: Public Mental Health Priorities: Assessing the Evidence. Department of Health, 2014 (https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/chief-medical-officer-cmo-annual-report-public-mental-health)."},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapsychiatry.2018.0623"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archpsyc.65.11.1250"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref42","unstructured":"42 Smith, T , Noble, M , Noble, S , Wright, G , McLennan, D , Plunkett, E . The English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2015 - Technical Report. UK Government, 2015 (https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/english-indices-of-deprivation-2015-technical-report)."},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref46","unstructured":"46 Royal College of Psychiatrists, Early Intervention in Psychosis Network, College Centre for Quality Improvement. Self-Assessment for EIP Services. Royal College of Psychiatrists, 2021 (https:\/\/www.rcpsych.ac.uk\/improving-care\/ccqi\/quality-networks-accreditation\/early-intervention-in-psychosis\/self-assessment)."},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10488-017-0808-z"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/eip.12279"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref2","volume-title":"The Five Year Forward View for Mental Health","year":"2016"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2012-001998"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1192\/bjp.bp.107.041566"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref20","unstructured":"20 NHS England. Implementing the Early Intervention in Psychosis Access and Waiting Time Standard: Guidance. NHS England, 2016 (https:\/\/www.nice.org.uk\/guidance\/qs80\/resources\/implementing-the-early-intervention-in-psychosis-access-and-waiting-time-standard-guidance-2487749725)."},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0031660"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref29","unstructured":"29 NHS England. NHS Mental Health Implementation Plan 2019\/20\u20132023\/24. NHS England 2019 (https:\/\/www.longtermplan.nhs.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/nhs-mental-health-implementation-plan-2019-20-2023-24.pdf)."},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1176\/appi.ajp.2016.16010103"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1192\/bjp.bp.112.125500"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0706743718758968"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref28","volume-title":"NHS Long-Term Plan","year":"2019"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1192\/bjp.bp.109.074526"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref26","unstructured":"26. Royal College of Psychiatrists. National Clinical Audit of Psychosis - National Report for the Early Intervention in Psychosis Spotlight Audit 2018\/2019. Royal College of Psychiatrists, 2019 (https:\/\/www.hqip.org.uk\/resource\/national-report-for-the-early-intervention-in-psychosis-spotlight-audit-2018-2019\/)."},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/schbul\/sbv016"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archpsyc.62.9.975"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archpsyc.63.3.250"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref47","volume-title":"Stata Statistical Software: Release 15","year":"2017"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-43329-5_18"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2019.305018"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/acps.12607"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref3","unstructured":"3 Joint Commissioning Panel for Mental Health. Guidance for Commissioning Public Mental Health Services. Joint Commissioning Panel for Mental Health, 2012 (https:\/\/www.jcpmh.info\/resource\/guidance-for-commissioning-public-mental-health-services\/)."},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref53","volume-title":"Implementing the Early Intervention in Psychosis Access and Waiting Time Standard: Guidance","year":"2020"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapsychiatry.2017.4184"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x"},{"key":"S0007125021000180_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/schbul\/sbz039"}],"container-title":["The British Journal of Psychiatry"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0007125021000180","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,27]],"date-time":"2021-06-27T20:09:35Z","timestamp":1624824575000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0007125021000180\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,8]]},"references-count":53,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,7]]}},"alternative-id":["S0007125021000180"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1192\/bjp.2021.18","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.31234\/osf.io\/bvcgu","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["0007-1250","1472-1465"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0007-1250","type":"print"},{"value":"1472-1465","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Copyright \u00a9 The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Royal College of Psychiatrists","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This content has been made available to all.","name":"free","label":"Free to read"}]}}