{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,18]],"date-time":"2026-09-18T06:47:10Z","timestamp":1789714030022,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":13,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2007,10,10]],"date-time":"2007-10-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1191974400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":39,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:p><jats:bold><jats:sc>Abstract<\/jats:sc>:\u2002<\/jats:bold>  <jats:bold>Understanding the predictive relationships between climate variability and coccidioidomycosis is of great importance for the development of an effective public health decision\u2010support system. Preliminary regression\u2010based climate modeling studies have shown that about 80% of the variance in seasonal coccidioidomycosis incidence for southern Arizona can be explained by precipitation and dust\u2010related climate scenarios prior to and concurrent with outbreaks. In earlier studies, precipitation during the normally arid foresummer 1.5\u20132 years prior to the season of exposure was found to be the dominant predictor. Here, the sensitivity of the seasonal modeling approach is examined as it relates to data quality control (QC), data trends, and exposure adjustment methodologies. Sensitivity analysis is based on both the original period of record, 1992\u20132003, and updated coccidioidomycosis incidence and climate data extending the period of record through 2005. Results indicate that models using case\u2010level data exposure adjustment do not suffer significantly if individual case report data are used \u201cas is.\u201d Results also show that the overall increasing trend in incidence is beyond explanation through climate variability alone. However, results also confirm that climate accounts for much of the coccidioidomycosis incidence variability about the trend from 1992 to 2005. These strongly significant relationships between climate conditions and coccidioidomycosis incidence obtained through regression modeling further support the dual \u201cgrow and blow\u201d hypothesis for climate\u2010related coccidioidomycosis incidence risk.<\/jats:bold> <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1196\/annals.1406.024","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,10,17]],"date-time":"2007-10-17T22:34:18Z","timestamp":1192660458000},"page":"83-95","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":39,"title":["Assessment of Climate\u2013 Coccidioidomycosis Model"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"1111","author":[{"given":"ANDREW C.","family":"COMRIE","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"MARY F.","family":"GLUECK","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2007,10,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02051479"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_2","first-page":"53","volume-title":"Coccidioidomycosis","author":"Fiese M.J.","year":"1958"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007619813435"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.30.6.600"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1946.02870490011003"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_2","first-page":"136","article-title":"Climate and coccidioidomycosis","volume":"575","author":"Hugenholtz P.","year":"1957","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Symposium on Coccidioidomycosis, Phoenix, Arizona. Publ."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_8_2","first-page":"281","article-title":"Observations on Coccidioides immitis found growing naturally in soil","volume":"22","author":"Maddy K.","year":"1965","journal-title":"Ariz. Med."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_9_2","volume-title":"Valley Fever Task Force Report on the Control of Coccidioides immitis, Kern County","author":"Jinadu B.A.","year":"1995"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484-002-0155-x","article-title":"Modeling valley fever incidence based on climate conditions in Pima County, Arizona","volume":"47","author":"Kolivras K.N.","year":"2003","journal-title":"Int. J. Biometeor."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/430092"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_2","first-page":"109","article-title":"Increase in coccidioidomycosis\u2014Arizona, 1998\u20132001","volume":"50","author":"Komatsu K.","year":"2003","journal-title":"Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484-005-0007-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.7786"}],"container-title":["Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1196%2Fannals.1406.024","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1196\/annals.1406.024","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,25]],"date-time":"2023-09-25T13:59:30Z","timestamp":1695650370000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1196\/annals.1406.024"}},"subtitle":["Model Sensitivity for Assessing Climatologic Effects on the Risk of Acquiring Coccidioidomycosis"],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2007,9]]},"references-count":13,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,9]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1196\/annals.1406.024"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1196\/annals.1406.024","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0077-8923","1749-6632"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0077-8923","type":"print"},{"value":"1749-6632","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2007,9]]}}}