{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,15]],"date-time":"2023-11-15T18:42:48Z","timestamp":1700073768558},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2008,6,28]],"date-time":"2008-06-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1214611200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":485,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Academic Emergency Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:p> <jats:bold>Objectives:<\/jats:bold> Mass prophylaxis against infectious disease outbreaks carries the risk of medication\u2010related adverse events (MRAEs). The authors sought to define the relationship between the rapidity of mass prophylaxis dispensing and the subsequent demand for emergency health services due to predictable MRAEs.<\/jats:p><jats:p> <jats:bold>Methods:<\/jats:bold> The authors created a spreadsheet\u2010based computer model that calculates scenario\u2010specific predicted daily MRAE rates from user inputs by applying a probability distribution to the reported timing of MRAEs. A hypothetical two\u2010 to ten\u2010day prophylaxis campaign for one million people using recent data from both smallpox vaccination and anthrax chemoprophylaxis campaigns was modeled.<\/jats:p><jats:p> <jats:bold>Results:<\/jats:bold> The length of a mass prophylaxis campaign plays an important role in determining the subsequent intensity in emergency services utilization due to real or suspected adverse events. A two\u2010day smallpox vaccination scenario would produce an estimated 32,000 medical encounters and 1,960 hospitalizations, peaking at 5,246 health care encounters six days after the start of the campaign; in contrast, a ten\u2010day campaign would lead to 41% lower peak surge, with a maximum of 3,106 encounters on the busiest day, ten days after initiation of the campaign. MRAEs with longer lead times, such as those associated with anthrax chemoprophylaxis, exhibit less variability based on campaign length (e.g., 124 out of an estimated 1,400 hospitalizations on day 20 after a two\u2010day campaign versus 103 on day 24 after a ten\u2010day campaign).<\/jats:p><jats:p> <jats:bold>Conclusions:<\/jats:bold> The duration of a mass prophylaxis campaign may have a substantial impact on the timing and peak number of clinically significant MRAEs, with very short campaigns overwhelming existing emergency department (ED) capacity to treat real or suspected medication\u2010related injuries. While better reporting of both incidence and timing of MRAEs in future prophylaxis campaigns should improve the application of this model to community\u2010based emergency preparedness planning, these results highlight the need for coordination between public health and emergency medicine planning for infectious disease outbreaks to avoid preventable surges in ED utilization.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1197\/j.aem.2006.08.017","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2006,12,28]],"date-time":"2006-12-28T01:26:01Z","timestamp":1167269161000},"page":"268-274","update-policy":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Anticipating Demand for Emergency Health Services due to Medication\u2010related Adverse Events after Rapid Mass Prophylaxis Campaigns"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Nathaniel","family":"Hupert","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Daniel","family":"Wattson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jason","family":"Cuomo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Samuel","family":"Benson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2008,6,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_1_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.281.22.2127"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0035-9203(79)90150-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.2.5511.427"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_1_5_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Recommendations for using smallpox vaccine in a pre\u2010event vaccination program. 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