{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T10:00:55Z","timestamp":1791453655627,"version":"4.3.3"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO)","issue":"11","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JCO"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,4,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Purpose<\/jats:title><jats:p> The rapid fatality of pancreatic cancer is, in large part, the result of an advanced stage of diagnosis for the majority of patients. Identification of individuals at high risk of developing pancreatic cancer is a first step towards the early detection of this disease. Individuals who may harbor a major pancreatic cancer susceptibility gene are one such high-risk group. The goal of this study was to develop and validate PancPRO, a Mendelian model for pancreatic cancer risk prediction in individuals with familial pancreatic cancer, to identify high-risk individuals. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p> PancPRO was built by extending the Bayesian modeling framework developed for BRCAPRO, trained using published data, and validated using independent prospective data on 961 families enrolled onto the National Familial Pancreas Tumor Registry, including 26 individuals who developed incident pancreatic cancer during follow-up. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p> We developed a risk prediction model, PancPRO, and free software for the estimation of pancreatic cancer susceptibility gene carrier probabilities and absolute pancreatic cancer risk. Model validation demonstrated an observed to predicted pancreatic cancer ratio of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.52 to 1.20) and high discriminatory ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.81) for PancPRO. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p> PancPRO is the first risk prediction model for pancreatic cancer. When we validated our model using the largest registry of familial pancreatic cancer, our model provided accurate risk assessment. Our findings highlight the importance of detailed family history for clinical cancer risk assessment and demonstrate that accurate genetic risk assessment is possible even when the causative genes are not known. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1200\/jco.2006.09.2452","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,4,6]],"date-time":"2007-04-06T22:20:42Z","timestamp":1175898042000},"page":"1417-1422","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":169,"title":["PancPRO: Risk Assessment for Individuals With a Family History of Pancreatic Cancer"],"prefix":"10.1200","volume":"25","author":[{"given":"Wenyi","family":"Wang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"From the Departments of Biostatistics, Environmental Health Sciences, and Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; and the Departments of Pathology and Oncology, Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sining","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"From the Departments of Biostatistics, Environmental Health Sciences, and Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; and the Departments of Pathology and Oncology, Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kieran A.","family":"Brune","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"From the Departments of Biostatistics, Environmental Health Sciences, and Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; and the Departments of Pathology and Oncology, Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ralph H.","family":"Hruban","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"From the Departments of Biostatistics, Environmental Health Sciences, and Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; and the Departments of Pathology and Oncology, Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Giovanni","family":"Parmigiani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"From the Departments of Biostatistics, Environmental Health Sciences, and Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; and the Departments of Pathology and Oncology, Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alison P.","family":"Klein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"From the Departments of Biostatistics, Environmental Health Sciences, and Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; and the Departments of Pathology and Oncology, Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"233","reference":[{"key":"R1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3322\/canjclin.57.1.43"},{"key":"R2","unstructured":"Lynch HT, Fitzsimmons M, Smyrk TC: Familial pancreatic cancer: Clinicopathological study of 18 nuclear families. Am J Gastroenterol 85:54,1990-60,"},{"key":"R3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199510123331504"},{"key":"R4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ng1096-141"},{"key":"R5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1053\/gast.1996.v110.pm8964426"},{"key":"R6","unstructured":"Goggins M, Schutte M, Lu J, et al: Germline BRCA2 gene mutations in patients with apparently sporadic pancreatic carcinomas. Cancer Res 56:5360,1996-5364,"},{"key":"R7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/95.3.214"},{"key":"R8","unstructured":"Murphy KM, Brune KA, Griffin C, et al: Evaluation of candidate genes MAP2K4, MADH4, ACVR1B, and BRCA2 in familial pancreatic cancer: Deleterious BRCA2 mutations in 17%. Cancer Res 62:3789,2002-3793,"},{"key":"R9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0002-9440(10)65440-5"},{"key":"R10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/gepi.1102"},{"key":"R11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1158\/0008-5472.CAN-05-2664"},{"key":"R12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1542-3565(04)00244-7"},{"key":"R13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cgh.2006.02.005"},{"key":"R14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-131-4-199908170-00003"},{"key":"R15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1158\/1078-0432.CCR-03-0165"},{"key":"R16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1158\/0008-5472.CAN-05-1851"},{"key":"R17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1158\/0008-5472.CAN-04-3262"},{"key":"R18","unstructured":"Petersen G, de Andrade M., Goggins M, et al: Pancreatic Cancer Genetic Epidemiology (PACGENE) Consortium. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev  (in press)"},{"key":"R19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/81.24.1879"},{"key":"R20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/89.3.227"},{"key":"R21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/90.23.1824"},{"key":"R22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2000.10473896"},{"key":"R23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jmg.39.8.611"},{"key":"R24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/301670"},{"key":"R25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.294.15.1925"},{"key":"R26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chen S, Wang W, Broman KW, et al: BayesMendel: An R environment for Mendelian risk prediction. Stat Appl Genet Mol Biol 3:21,2004,","DOI":"10.2202\/1544-6115.1063"},{"key":"R27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1159\/000152448"},{"key":"R29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1524-4741.2004.09608.x"},{"key":"R30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1158\/0008-5472.CAN-03-3823"},{"key":"R31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176344552"},{"key":"R32","unstructured":"R Development Core Team: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria, R Development Core, 2006 http:\/\/www.R-project.org"},{"key":"R33","unstructured":"Tersmette AC, Petersen GM, Offerhaus GJ, et al: Increased risk of incident pancreatic cancer among first-degree relatives of patients with familial pancreatic cancer. Clin Cancer Res 7:738,2001-744,"},{"key":"R34","unstructured":"Shariat S, Canto E, Kattan M, et al: Beyond prostate-specific antigen: New serologic biomarkers for improved diagnosis and management of prostate cancer. Rev Urol 6:58,2004-72,"},{"key":"R35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/93.5.358"},{"key":"R36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jmg.2003.013623"},{"key":"R37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.1994.12.8.1724"},{"key":"R38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/dji128"},{"key":"R39","unstructured":"Parmigiani G: Modeling in Medical Decision Making . Chichester, United Kingdom, J. Wiley, 2001"},{"key":"R40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1897-4287-3-3-115"}],"container-title":["Journal of Clinical Oncology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/ascopubs.org\/doi\/pdfdirect\/10.1200\/JCO.2006.09.2452","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,25]],"date-time":"2022-05-25T20:06:07Z","timestamp":1653509167000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/ascopubs.org\/doi\/10.1200\/JCO.2006.09.2452"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2007,4,10]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,4,10]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1200\/JCO.2006.09.2452"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1200\/jco.2006.09.2452","relation":{},"ISSN":["0732-183X","1527-7755"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0732-183X","type":"print"},{"value":"1527-7755","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2007,4,10]]}}}