{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T06:23:34Z","timestamp":1792650214124,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO)","issue":"5","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JCO"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2009,2,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Purpose<\/jats:title><jats:p> Given the high incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC), and the availability of procedures that can detect disease and remove precancerous lesions, there is a need for a model that estimates the probability of developing CRC across various age intervals and risk factor profiles. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p> The development of separate CRC absolute risk models for men and women included estimating relative risks and attributable risk parameters from population-based case-control data separately for proximal, distal, and rectal cancer and combining these estimates with baseline age-specific cancer hazard rates based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence rates and competing mortality risks. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p> For men, the model included a cancer-negative sigmoidoscopy\/colonoscopy in the last 10 years, polyp history in the last 10 years, history of CRC in first-degree relatives, aspirin and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use, cigarette smoking, body mass index (BMI), current leisure-time vigorous activity, and vegetable consumption. For women, the model included sigmoidoscopy\/colonoscopy, polyp history, history of CRC in first-degree relatives, aspirin and NSAID use, BMI, leisure-time vigorous activity, vegetable consumption, hormone-replacement therapy (HRT), and estrogen exposure on the basis of menopausal status. For men and women, relative risks differed slightly by tumor site. A validation study in independent data indicates that the models for men and women are well calibrated. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p> We developed absolute risk prediction models for CRC from population-based data, and a simple questionnaire suitable for self-administration. This model is potentially useful for counseling, for designing research intervention studies, and for other applications. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1200\/jco.2008.17.4797","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2008,12,30]],"date-time":"2008-12-30T04:54:56Z","timestamp":1230612896000},"page":"686-693","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":215,"title":["Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Tool for White Men and Women Without Known Susceptibility"],"prefix":"10.1200","volume":"27","author":[{"given":"Andrew N.","family":"Freedman","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"From the Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences; Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda; Information Management Systems, Rockville, MD; School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and the Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Medical Group, Oakland, 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