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We analyzed temporal tracking for body mass and lipid biomarkers using population-based time-series to assess the statistical feasibility of primordial prediction and prevention.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Design and participants<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Individuals born between 1962 and 1992 were included from 4 European local community cohorts. Serial measurements of weight, height, waist, and lipoprotein lipids were analyzed for 12 212 participants (ages 5-49 years, follow-ups 15-31 years depending on cohort). Longitudinal tracking was quantified by autocorrelation R2 over the same individuals between any 2 visits in the series; the weakening of R2(\u0394t) with increasing follow-up time was modeled by exponential decay.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Based on the decay model, we calculated autocorrelation for 2 surveys 15 years apart as a simplified tracking indicator: R2(15) = 35.7% for body mass index, R2(15) = 28.1% for waist\u2013height ratio, and R2(15) = 32.5% for low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. Total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were comparable to LDL cholesterol. Triglycerides exhibited weak tracking. The detection rate (DR5) at a 5% false positive rate (FPR) of children who were in the top risk decile as adults was DR5(15) = 38.9% for body mass index and DR5(15) = 30.9% for LDL cholesterol.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Individualized biomarker screening at low FPR misclassifies the majority of children who will have high values as adults (low statistical feasibility). Biomarker tracking is more useful for guiding broad population-based primordial prevention programs that can be extended to all children at risk without harm from false positives.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1210\/clinem\/dgag285","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,20]],"date-time":"2026-07-20T11:19:42Z","timestamp":1784546382000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Temporal stability of cardiometabolic risk factors from the perspective of primordial disease prevention in children"],"prefix":"10.1210","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7262-2656","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ville-Petteri","family":"M\u00e4kinen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Systems Epidemiology, Research Unit of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oulu , Oulu FI-90014 ,","place":["Finland"]},{"name":"Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu , Oulu FI-90014 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