{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,26]],"date-time":"2026-08-26T06:26:09Z","timestamp":1787725569084,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":12,"publisher":"The Endocrine Society","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,19]],"date-time":"2026-08-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787097600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":18,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004312","name":"Eli Lilly and Company","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004312","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This post hoc analysis aimed to assess the predictive value of glycemia-based criteria for development of type 2 diabetes (T2D) among adults with obesity and prediabetes in the 3-year SURMOUNT-1 study.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We evaluated the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value of each of the following exploratory criteria for their ability to correctly identify incident T2D cases in the placebo group: oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) 1-h glucose \u2265155\u2005mg\/dL (\u22658.6\u2005mmol\/L), fasting serum glucose (FSG) \u2265 110\u2005mg\/dL (\u22656.1\u2005mmol\/L), and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) \u2265 6% (\u226542.1\u2005mmol\/mol).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The OGTT 1-h glucose, FSG, and HbA1c based criteria, respectively, had a sensitivity of 0.83, 0.50, and 0.47; specificity of 0.25, 0.87, and 0.69; positive predictive value of 0.15, 0.37, and 0.19; and negative predictive value of 0.91, 0.92, and 0.90. Tirzepatide treatment was associated with a 90% to 99% reduction in new-onset T2D in the high-risk groups, vs 68% to 91% in the standard risk groups using the 3 different criteria.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In this post hoc analysis, we found that OGTT 1-h glucose \u2265155\u2005mg\/dL (\u22658.6\u2005mmol\/L) may be a useful criterion to better identify those at high risk of incident T2D. Tirzepatide treatment was highly effective in T2D prevention compared with placebo, regardless of the high-risk criteria used. These findings may guide in the identification of people in whom intensive therapies could be considered to prevent new-onset T2D.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1210\/jendso\/bvag190","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,15]],"date-time":"2026-08-15T12:48:08Z","timestamp":1786798088000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Glycemia-based predictors of T2D development in adults with obesity and prediabetes: SURMOUNT-1 post hoc analysis"],"prefix":"10.1210","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Rodolfo J","family":"Galindo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Miami Miller School of Medicine Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, , Miami, FL 33136 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Georgios K","family":"Dimitriadis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lilly Corporate Center, Eli Lilly and Company , Indianapolis, IN 46285 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Adam","family":"Stefanski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lilly Corporate Center, Eli Lilly and Company , Indianapolis, IN 46285 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kieren J","family":"Mather","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lilly Corporate Center, Eli Lilly and Company , Indianapolis, IN 46285 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dachuang","family":"Cao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lilly Corporate Center, Eli Lilly and Company , Indianapolis, IN 46285 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rhea","family":"Lewis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lilly Corporate Center, Eli Lilly and Company , Indianapolis, IN 46285 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0824-0207","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Clare J","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lilly Corporate Center, Eli Lilly and Company , Indianapolis, IN 46285 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"80","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,19]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"2026082601462920900_bvag190-B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"188","DOI":"10.1001\/archophthalmol.2010.353","article-title":"Hemoglobin A1c and fasting plasma glucose levels as predictors of retinopathy at 10 years: the French DESIR study","volume":"129","author":"Massin","year":"2011","journal-title":"Arch Ophthalmol"},{"issue":"10","key":"2026082601462920900_bvag190-B2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1563","DOI":"10.2337\/diacare.23.10.1563","article-title":"Screening for type 2 diabetes","volume":"23","author":"Engelgau","year":"2000","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"issue":"7","key":"2026082601462920900_bvag190-B3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1327","DOI":"10.2337\/dc09-9033","article-title":"International Expert Committee report on the role of the A1C assay in the diagnosis of diabetes","volume":"32","author":"International Expert Committee","year":"2009","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"key":"2026082601462920900_bvag190-B4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.diabres.2024.111589","article-title":"International Diabetes Federation Position Statement on the 1-hour post-load plasma glucose for the diagnosis of intermediate hyperglycaemia and type 2 diabetes","volume":"209","author":"Bergman","year":"2024","journal-title":"Diabetes Res Clin Pract"},{"issue":"2","key":"2026082601462920900_bvag190-B5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-8587(25)00295-5","article-title":"Prediabetes remission and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality: post-hoc analyses from the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcome study and the DaQing Diabetes Prevention Outcome study","volume":"14","author":"Vazquez Arreola","year":"2026","journal-title":"Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol"},{"issue":"3","key":"2026082601462920900_bvag190-B6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1210\/jendso\/bvag029","article-title":"One-hour postload glucose compared to prediabetes criteria as predictive markers of type 2 diabetes in Latin America","volume":"10","author":"Lizarzaburu-Robles","year":"2026","journal-title":"J Endocr Soc"},{"issue":"Supplement_1","key":"2026082601462920900_bvag190-B7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S13","DOI":"10.2337\/dc19-S002","article-title":"2. Classification and Diagnosis of Diabetes: Standards of Medical Care in Diabetes-2019","volume":"42","author":"American Diabetes Association","year":"2019","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"issue":"10","key":"2026082601462920900_bvag190-B8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"958","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2410819","article-title":"Tirzepatide for obesity treatment and diabetes prevention","volume":"392","author":"Jastreboff","year":"2025","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"11","key":"2026082601462920900_bvag190-B9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e142","DOI":"10.2337\/dc25-1640","article-title":"Global and regional prediabetes prevalence: updates for 2024 and projections for 2050","volume":"48","author":"Rooney","year":"2025","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"issue":"10","key":"2026082601462920900_bvag190-B10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"829","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-8587(25)00163-9","article-title":"The central role of recovery of \u03b2-cell function in the remission of prediabetes: a prospective cohort study in Canada","volume":"13","author":"Retnakaran","year":"2025","journal-title":"Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026082601462920900_bvag190-B11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"624","DOI":"10.1186\/s12967-023-04402-1","article-title":"Predictive performance of triglyceride glucose index (TyG index) to identify glucose status conversion: a 5-year longitudinal cohort study in Chinese pre-diabetes people","volume":"21","author":"Chen","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Transl Med"},{"key":"2026082601462920900_bvag190-B12","article-title":"Triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG\/HDL-C) ratio, a simple but effective indicator in predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus in older adults","volume":"13","author":"Liu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Endocrinol (Lausanne)"}],"container-title":["Journal of the Endocrine Society"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jes\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1210\/jendso\/bvag190\/70689487\/bvag190.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jes\/article-pdf\/10\/9\/bvag190\/70689487\/bvag190.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jes\/article-pdf\/10\/9\/bvag190\/70689487\/bvag190.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,26]],"date-time":"2026-08-26T05:46:34Z","timestamp":1787723194000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jes\/article\/doi\/10.1210\/jendso\/bvag190\/8764205"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,1]]},"references-count":12,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1210\/jendso\/bvag190","relation":{},"ISSN":["2472-1972"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2472-1972","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,1]]},"article-number":"bvag190"}}