{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,3]],"date-time":"2026-11-03T07:38:42Z","timestamp":1793691522207,"version":"4.5.1"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Institute of Mathematical Statistics","issue":"6","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Ann. Statist."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Segmented regression models offer model flexibility and interpretability as compared to the global parametric and the nonparametric models, and yet are challenging in both estimation and inference. We consider a four-regime segmented model for temporally dependent data with segmenting boundaries depending on multivariate covariates with nondiminishing boundary effects. A mixed integer quadratic programming algorithm is formulated to facilitate the least square estimation of the regression and the boundary parameters. The rates of convergence and the asymptotic distributions of the least square estimators are obtained for the regression and the boundary coefficients, respectively. We propose a smoothed regression bootstrap to facilitate inference on the parameters and a model selection procedure to select the most suitable model within the model class with at most four segments. Numerical simulations and a case study on air pollution in Beijing are conducted to demonstrate the proposed approach, which shows that the segmented models with three or four regimes are suitable for the modeling of the meteorological effects on the PM2.5 concentration.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1214\/24-aos2417","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,19]],"date-time":"2024-12-19T01:22:02Z","timestamp":1734571322000},"page":"2668-2691","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Statistical inference for four-regime segmented regression models"],"prefix":"10.1214","volume":"52","author":[{"given":"Han","family":"Yan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Guanghua School of Management, Peking University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Song Xi","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics and Data Science, Tsinghua University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"108","reference":[{"key":"11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>Friedman, J. H.<\/small> (1991). Multivariate adaptive regression splines. <i>Ann. Statist.<\/i> <b>19<\/b> 1\u2013141.","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176347963"},{"key":"10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>FAN, J.<\/small> and <small>YAO, Q.<\/small> (1998). Efficient estimation of conditional variance functions in stochastic regression. <i>Biometrika<\/i> <b>85<\/b> 645\u2013660.","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/85.3.645"},{"key":"8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>CHERNOZHUKOV, V.<\/small> and <small>HONG, H.<\/small> (2004). Likelihood estimation and inference in a class of nonregular econometric models. <i>Econometrica<\/i> <b>72<\/b> 1445\u20131480.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-0262.2004.00540.x"},{"key":"9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>DAVIES, R. B.<\/small> (1987). Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. <i>Biometrika<\/i> <b>74<\/b> 33\u201343.","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/74.1.33"},{"key":"34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>YU, P.<\/small> (2014). The bootstrap in threshold regression. <i>Econometric Theory<\/i> <b>30<\/b> 676\u2013714.","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266466614000012"},{"key":"26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>Politis, D. N.<\/small> and <small>Romano, J. P.<\/small> (1994). Large sample confidence regions based on subsamples under minimal assumptions. <i>Ann. Statist.<\/i> <b>22<\/b> 2031\u20132050.","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176325770"},{"key":"24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>Liu, R. Y.<\/small> (1988). Bootstrap procedures under some non-i.i.d. models. <i>Ann. Statist.<\/i> <b>16<\/b> 1696\u20131708.","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176351062"},{"key":"28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>RESNICK, S. I.<\/small> (2008). <i>Extreme Values, Regular Variation and Point Processes<\/i>. <i>Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering<\/i>. Springer, New York.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-75953-1"},{"key":"22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>LEE, S.<\/small>, <small>LIAO, Y.<\/small>, <small>SEO, M. H.<\/small> and <small>SHIN, Y.<\/small> (2021). Factor-driven two-regime regression. <i>Ann. Statist.<\/i> <b>49<\/b> 1656\u20131678.","DOI":"10.1214\/20-aos2017"},{"key":"3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>Bertsimas, D.<\/small>, <small>King, A.<\/small> and <small>Mazumder, R.<\/small> (2016). Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. <i>Ann. Statist.<\/i> <b>44<\/b> 813\u2013852.","DOI":"10.1214\/15-AOS1388"},{"key":"20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>Khalili, A.<\/small> and <small>Chen, J.<\/small> (2007). Variable selection in finite mixture of regression models. <i>J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.<\/i> <b>102<\/b> 1025\u20131038.","DOI":"10.1198\/016214507000000590"},{"key":"6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>Chan, K. S.<\/small> (1993). Consistency and limiting distribution of the least squares estimator of a threshold autoregressive model. <i>Ann. Statist.<\/i> <b>21<\/b> 520\u2013533.","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176349040"},{"key":"16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>Hansen, B. E.<\/small> (2000). Sample splitting and threshold estimation. <i>Econometrica<\/i> <b>68<\/b> 575\u2013603.","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0262.00124"},{"key":"31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>Seijo, E.<\/small> and <small>Sen, B.<\/small> (2011). Change-point in stochastic design regression and the bootstrap. <i>Ann. Statist.<\/i> <b>39<\/b> 1580\u20131607.","DOI":"10.1214\/11-AOS874"},{"key":"30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"<small>Schwarz, G.<\/small> (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. <i>Ann. Statist.<\/i> <b>6<\/b> 461\u2013464.","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176344136"},{"key":"2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>Bai, J.<\/small> and <small>Perron, P.<\/small> (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. <i>Econometrica<\/i> <b>66<\/b> 47\u201378.","DOI":"10.2307\/2998540"},{"key":"37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>ZEILEIS, A.<\/small>, <small>HOTHORN, T.<\/small> and <small>HORNIK, K.<\/small> (2008). Model-based recursive partitioning. <i>J. Comput. Graph. Statist.<\/i> <b>17<\/b> 492\u2013514.","DOI":"10.1198\/106186008X319331"},{"key":"32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>TONG, H.<\/small> (1983). <i>Threshold Models in Nonlinear Time Series Analysis<\/i>. <i>Lecture Notes in Statistics<\/i> <b>21<\/b>. Springer, New York.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4684-7888-4"},{"key":"7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>CHERNOZHUKOV, V.<\/small> and <small>FERN\u00c1NDEZ-VAL, I.<\/small> (2011). Inference for extremal conditional quantile models, with an application to market and birthweight risks. <i>Rev. Econ. Stud.<\/i> <b>78<\/b> 559\u2013589.","DOI":"10.1093\/restud\/rdq020"},{"key":"4","unstructured":"<small>BERTSIMAS, D.<\/small> and <small>WEISMANTEL, R.<\/small> (2005). <i>Optimization over Integers<\/i> <b>13<\/b>. Dynamic Ideas Belmont."},{"key":"1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"<small>AUERBACH, A. J.<\/small> and <small>GORODNICHENKO, Y.<\/small> (2012). Measuring the output responses to fiscal policy. <i>Amer. Econ. J<\/i>.: <i>Econ. Policy<\/i> <b>4<\/b> 1\u201327.","DOI":"10.1257\/pol.4.2.1"},{"key":"5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"<small>CARD, D.<\/small>, <small>MAS, A.<\/small> and <small>ROTHSTEIN, J.<\/small> (2008). Tipping and the dynamics of segregation. <i>Q. J. Econ.<\/i> <b>123<\/b> 177\u2013218.","DOI":"10.1162\/qjec.2008.123.1.177"},{"key":"12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"<small>GONZALO, J.<\/small> and <small>PITARAKIS, J.-Y.<\/small> (2002). Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models. <i>J. Econometrics<\/i> <b>110<\/b> 319\u2013352.","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4076(02)00098-2"},{"key":"13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>GONZALO, J.<\/small> and <small>WOLF, M.<\/small> (2005). Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models. <i>J. Econometrics<\/i> <b>127<\/b> 201\u2013224.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2004.08.004"},{"key":"14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>GY\u00d6RFI, L.<\/small>, <small>H\u00c4RDLE, W.<\/small>, <small>SARDA, P.<\/small> and <small>VIEU, P.<\/small> (1989). <i>Nonparametric Curve Estimation from Time Series<\/i>. <i>Lecture Notes in Statistics<\/i> <b>60<\/b>. Springer, Berlin.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4612-3686-3"},{"key":"17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"<small>H\u00c4RDLE, W.<\/small>, <small>HOROWITZ, J.<\/small> and <small>KREISS, J.-P.<\/small> (2003). Bootstrap methods for time series. <i>Int. Stat. Rev.<\/i> <b>71<\/b> 435\u2013459.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1751-5823.2003.tb00485.x"},{"key":"18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>HSING, T.<\/small> (1995). On the asymptotic independence of the sum and rare values of weakly dependent stationary random variables. <i>Stochastic Process. Appl.<\/i> <b>60<\/b> 49\u201363.","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4149(95)00054-2"},{"key":"19","unstructured":"<small>JIANG, Z.<\/small>, <small>DU, C.<\/small>, <small>JABLENSKY, A.<\/small>, <small>LIANG, H.<\/small>, <small>LU, Z.<\/small>, <small>MA, Y.<\/small> and <small>TEO, K. L.<\/small> (2014). Analysis of schizophrenia data using a nonlinear threshold index logistic model. <i>PLoS ONE<\/i> <b>9<\/b> e109454."},{"key":"21","unstructured":"<small>KNIGHT, K.<\/small> (1999). Epi-convergence and stochastic equisemicontinuity. Preprint."},{"key":"23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>LI, D.<\/small> and <small>LING, S.<\/small> (2012). On the least squares estimation of multiple-regime threshold autoregressive models. <i>J. Econometrics<\/i> <b>167<\/b> 240\u2013253.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2011.11.006"},{"key":"25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>MEYER, R. M.<\/small> (1973). A Poisson-type limit theorem for mixing sequences of dependent \u201crare\u201d events. <i>Ann. Probab.<\/i> <b>1<\/b> 480\u2013483.","DOI":"10.1214\/aop\/1176996941"},{"key":"27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"<small>POTTER, S. M.<\/small> (1995). A nonlinear approach to US GNP. <i>J. Appl. Econometrics<\/i> <b>10<\/b> 109\u2013125.","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.3950100203"},{"key":"29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"<small>SCHWARTZ, P. F.<\/small>, <small>GENNINGS, C.<\/small> and <small>CHINCHILLI, V. M.<\/small> (1995). Threshold models for combination data from reproductive and developmental experiments. <i>J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.<\/i> <b>90<\/b> 862\u2013870.","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1995.10476585"},{"key":"33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"<small>YAN, H.<\/small> and <small>CHEN, S. X.<\/small> (2024). Supplement to \u201cStatistical inference for four-regime segmented regression models.\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1214\/24-AOS2417SUPP\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1214\/24-AOS2417SUPP<\/a>","DOI":"10.1214\/24-AOS2417SUPP"},{"key":"35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>YU, P.<\/small> and <small>FAN, X.<\/small> (2021). Threshold regression with a threshold boundary. <i>J. Bus. Econom. Statist.<\/i> <b>39<\/b> 953\u2013971.","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2020.1740712"},{"key":"36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>YU, P.<\/small> and <small>PHILLIPS, P. C. B.<\/small> (2018). Threshold regression with endogeneity. <i>J. Econometrics<\/i> <b>203<\/b> 50\u201368.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2017.09.007"},{"key":"15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"<small>HANSEN, B. E.<\/small> (1996). Inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis. <i>Econometrica<\/i> <b>64<\/b> 413\u2013430.","DOI":"10.2307\/2171789"}],"container-title":["The Annals of Statistics"],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,7]],"date-time":"2026-10-07T17:18:43Z","timestamp":1791393523000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/projecteuclid.org\/journals\/annals-of-statistics\/volume-52\/issue-6\/Statistical-inference-for-four-regime-segmented-regression-models\/10.1214\/24-AOS2417.full"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,1]]},"references-count":37,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1214\/24-aos2417","relation":{},"ISSN":["0090-5364","2168-8966"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0090-5364","type":"print"},{"value":"2168-8966","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,1]]}}}