{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,16]],"date-time":"2026-04-16T13:07:34Z","timestamp":1776344854576,"version":"3.51.2"},"reference-count":65,"publisher":"Duke University Press","issue":"1","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>This research note discusses one underexplored aspect of the study of polygyny, namely, the extent to which the practice remains viable from a purely demographic standpoint. Using data from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 covering 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), I evaluate a simple indicator\u2014gamma\u2014for capturing the \u201cdemographic potential\u201d of polygyny, that is, the fraction of men who can have two wives with no other man pushed out of the marriage market. I estimate how this indicator has evolved between 1950 and 2021 across regions of SSA and show how the measure correlates with polygyny estimates from available men's and women's Demographic and Health Surveys. Gamma shows inverted U-curve patterns aligned with stages of the demographic transition, from modestly low levels to high levels during periods of rapid population growth and then declining again. Recent declines are starkest in South SSA, while potential remains moderate elsewhere. Gamma correlates positively with polygyny estimates from Demographic and Health Surveys\u2014particularly in Central and South SSA\u2014and can explain up to 50\u201270% variation in polygyny, albeit not everywhere. Findings primarily hold within regions, suggesting this is one of manifold factors at play. I conclude by outlining fruitful directions for the study of polygyny.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1215\/00703370-12459078","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,6]],"date-time":"2026-02-06T07:45:01Z","timestamp":1770363901000},"page":"61-78","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A Research Note on the Demographic Potential of Polygyny: Evaluating an Age-Related Summary Indicator"],"prefix":"10.1215","volume":"63","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1690-7163","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Luca Maria","family":"Pesando","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Social Science, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"73","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"281","DOI":"10.1017\/S0021932000022355","article-title":"Prior and proximate causes of infant survival in Ghana, with special attention to polygyny","volume":"28","author":"Amankwaa","year":"1996","journal-title":"Journal of Biosocial Science"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C2","first-page":"1","article-title":"Polygyny and infant mortality in western Africa: Evidence from Ghana","volume":"16","author":"Amankwaa","year":"2001","journal-title":"African Population Studies"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C3","first-page":"74","article-title":"Polygyny and child survival in West Africa","volume":"49","author":"Amey","year":"2002","journal-title":"Social Biology"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"465","DOI":"10.1080\/00324728.2022.2094452","article-title":"Measuring age differences among different-sex couples: Across religions and 130 countries, men are older than their female partners","volume":"76","author":"Ausubel","year":"2022","journal-title":"Population Studies"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"617","DOI":"10.3917\/pope.505.0617","article-title":"Age difference between spouses and contraceptive practice in sub-Saharan Africa","volume":"60","author":"Barbieri","year":"2005","journal-title":"Population"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C6","first-page":"170","article-title":"The politics of polygyny in Mende education and child fosterage transactions","volume-title":"Sex and gender hierarchies","author":"Bledsoe","year":"1993"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"153","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1728-4457.2013.00557.x","article-title":"Fertility transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?","volume":"38","author":"Bongaarts","year":"2013","journal-title":"Population and Development Review"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.4324\/9781315065892","volume-title":"Woman's role in economic development","author":"Boserup","year":"2013"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139034555","volume-title":"A new and accurate description of the Coast of Guinea: Divided into the gold, the slave, and the Ivory Coasts","author":"Bosman","year":"2011"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"416","DOI":"10.1016\/j.hisfam.2011.08.002","article-title":"Marriage and power: Age at first marriage and spousal age gap in lesser developed countries","volume":"16","author":"Carmichael","year":"2011","journal-title":"History of the Family"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"353","DOI":"10.1080\/0032472031000142296","article-title":"The age difference between spouses: Variations among developing countries","volume":"40","author":"Casterline","year":"1986","journal-title":"Population Studies"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1125","DOI":"10.1111\/padr.12524","article-title":"The transformation of polygyny in sub-Saharan Africa","volume":"48","author":"Chae","year":"2022","journal-title":"Population and Development Review"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"577","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1728-4457.2012.00528.x","article-title":"Goode's World Revolution and Family Patterns: A reconsideration at fifty years","volume":"38","author":"Cherlin","year":"2012","journal-title":"Population and Development Review"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"91","DOI":"10.1080\/00324728.1980.10412838","article-title":"Polygyny and the rate of population growth","volume":"34","author":"Chojnacka","year":"1980","journal-title":"Population Studies"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1728-4457.2015.00086.x","article-title":"Divorce in sub-Saharan Africa: Are unions becoming less stable?","volume":"41","author":"Clark","year":"2015","journal-title":"Population and Development Review"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C16","volume-title":"Many wives, many powers: Authority and power in polygynous families","author":"Clignet","year":"1970"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cudeville, E.\n          , Gu\u00e9nard, C., & Robilliard, A.-S. (2017). Polygamy and female labour supply in Senegal (WIDER Working Paper, No. 2017\/127). United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research. Retrieved from https:\/\/www.wider.unu.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/Publications\/Working-paper\/PDF\/wp2017-127.pdf","DOI":"10.35188\/UNU-WIDER\/2017\/353-0"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"599","DOI":"10.1086\/676531","article-title":"Why is polygyny more prevalent in Western Africa? An African slave trade perspective","volume":"62","author":"Dalton","year":"2014","journal-title":"Economic Development and Cultural Change"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"189","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-019-1200-9","article-title":"Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017","volume":"570","author":"Dwyer-Lindgren","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"58","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jdeveco.2015.06.005","article-title":"African polygamy: Past and present","volume":"117","author":"Fenske","year":"2015","journal-title":"Journal of Development Economics"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2371","DOI":"10.1007\/s13524-018-0722-3","article-title":"From privilege to prevalence: Contextual effects of women's schooling on African marital timing","volume":"55","author":"Frye","year":"2018","journal-title":"Demography"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2508091122","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2508091122","article-title":"High rates of polygyny do not lock large proportions of men out of the marriage market","volume":"122","author":"Gaddy","year":"2025","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"213","DOI":"10.1525\/9780520335455-008","article-title":"The demography of polygyny in sub-Saharan Africa","volume-title":"Reproduction and social organization in sub-Saharan Africa","author":"Goldman","year":"1989"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C24","volume-title":"World revolution and family patterns","author":"Goode","year":"1963"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1177\/0363199002238552","article-title":"Family changes over the long term: A sociological commentary","volume":"28","author":"Goode","year":"2003","journal-title":"Journal of Family History"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C26","volume-title":"The character of kinship","author":"Goody","year":"1973"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"471","DOI":"10.1002\/ajpa.20068","article-title":"Is polygyny a risk factor for poor growth performance among Tanzanian agropastoralists?","volume":"126","author":"Hadley","year":"2005","journal-title":"American Journal of Physical Anthropology"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.2307\/2573784","article-title":"Sexual division of labor and cross-cultural research","volume":"37","author":"Heath","year":"1958","journal-title":"Social Forces"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"657","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2011.0290","article-title":"The puzzle of monogamous marriage","volume":"367","author":"Henrich","year":"2012","journal-title":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"203","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.so.20.080194.001223","article-title":"Why fertility changes","volume":"20","author":"Hirschman","year":"1994","journal-title":"Annual Review of Sociology"},{"issue":"Suppl. 1","key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1080\/09540120902923063","article-title":"The demographic impact of HIV and AIDS across the family and household life-cycle: Implications for efforts to strengthen families in sub-Saharan Africa","volume":"21","author":"Hosegood","year":"2009","journal-title":"AIDS Care"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"333","DOI":"10.1093\/socpro\/spw038","article-title":"I would never want to be an only wife\u201d: The role of discursive networks and post-feminist discourse in reframing polygamy","volume":"64","author":"Iturriaga","year":"2017","journal-title":"Social Problems"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C33","volume-title":"Modern polygamy in the United States: Historical, cultural, and legal issues","author":"Jacobson","year":"2011"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"938","DOI":"10.1086\/262009","article-title":"The economics of polygyny in sub-Saharan Africa: Female productivity and the demand for wives in C\u00f4te d'Ivoire","volume":"103","author":"Jacoby","year":"1995","journal-title":"Journal of Political Economy"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1423","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(02)08357-5","article-title":"Intimate partner violence: Causes and prevention","volume":"359","author":"Jewkes","year":"2002","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C36","volume-title":"Uncertain honor: Modern motherhood in an African crisis","author":"Johnson-Hanks","year":"2006"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C37","unstructured":"Kramer, S.\n           (2020, December7). Polygamy is rare around the world and mostly confined to a few regions. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2020\/12\/07\/polygamy-is-rare-around-the-world-and-mostly-confined-to-a-few-regions\/"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"532","DOI":"10.1017\/S0021932025100333","article-title":"Trends in spousal age difference at first marriage in sub-Saharan Africa","volume":"57","author":"Kyei","year":"2025","journal-title":"Journal of Biosocial Science"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"177","DOI":"10.4054\/DemRes.2018.39.6","article-title":"Polygynous marriage and child health in sub-Saharan Africa: What is the evidence for harm?","volume":"39","author":"Lawson","year":"2018","journal-title":"Demographic Research"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13827","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1507151112","article-title":"No evidence that polygynous marriage is a harmful cultural practice in northern Tanzania","volume":"112","author":"Lawson","year":"2015","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C41","volume-title":"AIDS and the gender gap in life expectancy in Africa","author":"Masquelier","year":"2018"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"124","DOI":"10.1363\/3112405","article-title":"Gender inequality and intimate partner violence among women in Moshi, Tanzania","volume":"31","author":"McCloskey","year":"2005","journal-title":"International Family Planning Perspectives"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"120","DOI":"10.1080\/14442213.2018.1440626","article-title":"\u2018I was attracted to him because of his money\u2019: Changing forms of polygyny in contemporary Papua New Guinea","volume":"19","author":"Mek","year":"2018","journal-title":"Asia Pacific Journal of Anthropology"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"453","DOI":"10.2307\/350981","article-title":"Polygyny in Iran","volume":"37","author":"Momeni","year":"1975","journal-title":"Journal of Marriage and the Family"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"239","DOI":"10.1080\/00324728.2021.1877793","article-title":"Foetal loss and feminine sex ratios at birth in sub-Saharan Africa","volume":"75","author":"Morse","year":"2021","journal-title":"Population Studies"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-46889-1_6","article-title":"A case of an almost complete demographic transition: South Africa","volume-title":"Africa's population: In search of a demographic dividend","author":"Moultrie","year":"2017"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1310","DOI":"10.1111\/jomf.12777","article-title":"Revisiting the polygyny and intimate partner violence connection: The role of religion and wife's rank in Nigeria","volume":"83","author":"Owoo","year":"2021","journal-title":"Journal of Marriage and Family"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-70060-1_141-1","article-title":"Polygyny and women's status: Myths and evidence","volume-title":"Gender equality: Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals","author":"Pesando","year":"2020"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"571","DOI":"10.1215\/00703370-9000609","article-title":"Educational assortative mating in sub-Saharan Africa: Compositional changes and implications for household wealth inequality","volume":"58","author":"Pesando","year":"2021","journal-title":"Demography"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1811","DOI":"10.4054\/DemRes.2008.19.53","article-title":"Polygyny and HIV in Malawi","volume":"19","author":"Reniers","year":"2008","journal-title":"Demographic Research"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1075","DOI":"10.1007\/s13524-012-0114-z","article-title":"Polygyny, partnership concurrency, and HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa","volume":"49","author":"Reniers","year":"2012","journal-title":"Demography"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e429","DOI":"10.1016\/S2352-3018(21)00069-2","article-title":"Age patterns of HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa: A modelling analysis of observational population-based cohort studies","volume":"8","author":"Risher","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet HIV"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"341","DOI":"10.1007\/s13524-013-0262-9","article-title":"Polygynous contexts, family structure, and infant mortality in sub-Saharan Africa","volume":"51","author":"Smith-Greenaway","year":"2014","journal-title":"Demography"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"688","DOI":"10.1086\/204657","article-title":"Polygyny as a risk factor for child mortality among the Dogon","volume":"38","author":"Strassmann","year":"1997","journal-title":"Current Anthropology"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"457","DOI":"10.2307\/3654914","article-title":"The demography of sub-Saharan Africa from the 1950s to the 2000s: A survey of changes and a statistical assesment","volume":"59","author":"Tabutin","year":"2004","journal-title":"Population"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"165","DOI":"10.3917\/popu.2002.0169","article-title":"The demography of sub-Saharan Africa in the 21st century: Transformations since 2000, outlook to 2050","volume":"75","author":"Tabutin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Population"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C57","first-page":"563","article-title":"Polygyny and poverty","volume":"3","author":"Tertilt","year":"2005","journal-title":"Journal of the European Economic Association"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"857","DOI":"10.1080\/17441692.2013.815249","article-title":"The changing cultural and economic dynamics of polygyny and concurrent sexual partnerships in Iringa, Tanzania","volume":"8","author":"Tomori","year":"2013","journal-title":"Global Public Health"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"999","DOI":"10.4054\/DemRes.2024.51.32","article-title":"Children under 5 in polygynous households in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000 to 2020","volume":"51","author":"Treleaven","year":"2024","journal-title":"Demographic Research"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C60","volume-title":"African households: Censuses and surveys","author":"van de Walle","year":"2006"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C61","first-page":"57","article-title":"Marriage drinks and kola nuts","volume-title":"Nuptiality in sub-Saharan Africa: Contemporary anthropological and demographic perspectives","author":"Walle","year":"1994"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"233","DOI":"10.1080\/0032472042000224422","article-title":"Death and survival during the 1994 genocide in Rwanda","volume":"58","author":"Verwimp","year":"2004","journal-title":"Population Studies"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C63","volume-title":"Trends in marriage and early childbearing in developing countries","author":"Westoff","year":"2003"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C64","first-page":"299","article-title":"The exaggerated demise of polygyny: Transformations in marriage and gender relations in West Africa","volume-title":"International handbooks of population: Vol. 8. International handbook on gender and demographic processes","author":"Whitehouse","year":"2018"},{"key":"2026041608051260800_dem12459078C65","volume-title":"Polygamy: A cross-cultural analysis","author":"Zeitzen","year":"2008"}],"container-title":["Demography"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/read.dukeupress.edu\/demography\/article-pdf\/63\/1\/61\/2391030\/61pesando.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/read.dukeupress.edu\/demography\/article-pdf\/63\/1\/61\/2391030\/61pesando.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,16]],"date-time":"2026-04-16T12:05:28Z","timestamp":1776341128000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/read.dukeupress.edu\/demography\/article\/63\/1\/61\/407255\/A-Research-Note-on-the-Demographic-Potential-of"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,1]]},"references-count":65,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,1]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1215\/00703370-12459078","relation":{},"ISSN":["0070-3370","1533-7790"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0070-3370","type":"print"},{"value":"1533-7790","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2026,2]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,1]]}}}