{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,16]],"date-time":"2025-04-16T17:40:03Z","timestamp":1744825203526,"version":"3.40.4"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Duke University Press","issue":"2","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>In this research note, we used excess deaths among young males to estimate the number of Russian fatalities in the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022\u20132023. We based our calculations on the official mortality statistics, split by age and sex. To separate excess deaths due to war from those due to COVID-19, we relied on the ratio of male to female deaths and extrapolated the 2015\u20132019 trend to get the baseline value for 2022\u20132023. We found noticeable excess male mortality in all age groups between 15 and 49, with 58,500\u2009\u00b1\u20092,500 excess male deaths in 2022\u20132023 (20,600\u2009\u00b1\u20091,400 in 2022 and 37,900\u2009\u00b1\u20091,500 in 2023). These estimates were obtained after excluding all HIV-related deaths that showed complex dynamics unrelated to the war. Depending on the modeling assumptions, the estimated number of deaths over the two years varied from about 46,600 to about 64,100, with 58,500 corresponding to our preferred model. Our estimate should be treated as a lower bound on the true number of deaths because the data do not include either the Russian military personnel missing in action and not officially declared dead or the deaths registered in the Ukrainian territories annexed in 2022.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1215\/00703370-11862998","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,25]],"date-time":"2025-03-25T13:35:08Z","timestamp":1742909708000},"page":"335-347","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["War Fatalities in Russia in 2022\u20132023 Estimated Via Excess Male Mortality: A Research Note"],"prefix":"10.1215","volume":"62","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5639-7209","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Dmitry","family":"Kobak","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Hertie Institute for AI in Brain Health, University of T\u00fcbingen, T\u00fcbingen, Germany"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2541-9794","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Alexey","family":"Bessudnov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Social and Political Sciences, Philosophy and Anthropology, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1245-4811","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Alexander","family":"Ershov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Independent Researcher"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3714-7148","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tatiana","family":"Mikhailova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA"}]},{"given":"Alexey","family":"Raksha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Independent Researcher"}]}],"member":"73","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1201\/9781003175407","volume-title":"Statistical theory: A concise introduction","author":"Abramovich","year":"2022","edition":"2nd"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1695","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyac055","article-title":"Life expectancy declines in Russia during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020","volume":"51","author":"Aburto","year":"2022","journal-title":"International Journal of Epidemiology"},{"unstructured":"BBC News Russian, & Mediazona. (2023). Russian casualties in Ukraine (Mediazona count). Available from https:\/\/zona.media\/casualties","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C3"},{"doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bessudnov\n              A.\n            \n           (2023). Ethnic and regional inequalities in Russian military fatalities in Ukraine: Preliminary findings from crowdsourced data. Demographic Research, 48, 883\u2013898. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4054\/DemRes.2023.48.31","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C4","DOI":"10.4054\/DemRes.2023.48.31"},{"issue":"3","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"67","DOI":"10.1080\/09332480.2020.1787743","article-title":"How can we estimate the death toll from COVID-19?","volume":"33","author":"Boka","year":"2020","journal-title":"Chance"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"555","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1728-4457.2007.00185.x","article-title":"Mortality of American troops in the Iraq War","volume":"33","author":"Buzzell","year":"2007","journal-title":"Population and Development Review"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"691","DOI":"10.1177\/00223433231185169","article-title":"Organized violence 1989\u20132022, and the return of conflict between states","volume":"60","author":"Davies","year":"2023","journal-title":"Journal of Peace Research"},{"unstructured":"The Economist. (2024a, February24). How many Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine? Retrieved from https:\/\/www.economist.com\/graphic-detail\/2024\/02\/24\/how-many-russian-soldiers-have-died-in-ukraine","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C8"},{"unstructured":"The Economist. (2024b, July5). How many Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine? Retrieved from https:\/\/www.economist.com\/graphic-detail\/2024\/07\/05\/how-many-russian-soldiers-have-been-killed-in-ukraine","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C9"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"307","DOI":"10.1353\/cwh.2011.0061","article-title":"A census-based count of the Civil War dead","volume":"57","author":"Hacker","year":"2011","journal-title":"Civil War History"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1001533","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001533","article-title":"Mortality in Iraq associated with the 2003\u20132011 war and occupation: Findings from a national cluster sample survey by the university collaborative Iraq Mortality Study","volume":"10","author":"Hagopian","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Medicine"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1080\/0032472031000150176","article-title":"\u2018Between one and three million\u2019: Towards the demographic reconstruction of a decade of Cambodian history (1970\u201379)","volume":"52","author":"Heuveline","year":"1998","journal-title":"Population Studies"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"40","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a112007","article-title":"Excess mortality from epidemic influenza, 1957\u20131966","volume":"100","author":"Housworth","year":"1974","journal-title":"American Journal of Epidemiology"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1137","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.n1137","article-title":"Excess deaths associated with COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: Age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries","volume":"373","author":"Islam","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e69336","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.69336","article-title":"Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset","volume":"10","author":"Karlinsky","year":"2021","journal-title":"eLife"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1007\/s11113-023-09790-2","article-title":"The casualties of war: An excess mortality estimate of lives lost in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict","volume":"42","author":"Karlinsky","year":"2023","journal-title":"Population Research and Policy Review"},{"unstructured":"Kirby\n              P.\n            \n           (2023, April 13). Ukraine war: Pentagon leaks reveal Russian infighting over death toll. BBC News. Retrieved from https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-65260672","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C17"},{"issue":"1","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16","DOI":"10.1111\/1740-9713.01486","article-title":"Excess mortality reveals COVID's true toll in Russia","volume":"18","author":"Kobak","year":"2021","journal-title":"Significance"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C19","first-page":"1919","article-title":"Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries","volume-title":"Nature Medicine","author":"Kontis","year":"2020"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780195390964.001.0001","volume-title":"The casualty gap: The causes and consequences of American wartime inequalities","author":"Kriner","year":"2010"},{"volume-title":"Rossiya i SSSR v voynah XX veka: poteri vooruzhyannyh sil. Statisticheskoe issledovanie","year":"2001","author":"Krivosheev","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C21"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.1007\/s10680-005-6851-6","article-title":"Monitoring trends in global combat: A new dataset of battle deaths","volume":"21","author":"Lacina","year":"2005","journal-title":"European Journal of Population\/Revue Europ\u00e9enne de D\u00e9mographie"},{"unstructured":"Meduza and Mediazona. (2023, July10). Bring out your dead: A joint investigation by Meduza and Mediazona reveals the true number of Russian soldiers killed so far in the invasion of Ukraine. Retrieved from https:\/\/meduza.io\/en\/feature\/2023\/07\/10\/bring-out-your-dead","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C23"},{"unstructured":"Meduza and Mediazona. (2024, February24). At least 75 thousand dead Russian soldiers: Meduza calculates that Moscow loses 120 men per day in Ukraine, and the rate isn't slowing after two years of war. Retrieved from https:\/\/meduza.io\/en\/feature\/2024\/02\/24\/at-least-75-000-dead-russian-soldiers","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C24"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"130","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-022-05522-2","article-title":"The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"613","author":"Msemburi","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2211","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(06)69895-4","article-title":"Estimation of potential global pandemic influenza mortality on the basis of vital registry data from the 1918\u201320 pandemic: A quantitative analysis","volume":"368","author":"Murray","year":"2006","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"unstructured":"Nikolaeva\n              R.\n            \n          , & MarokhovskayaA. (2023, July6). At least 18 thousand Russians died in 2022 in the war. Vazhnije Istorii. Retrieved from https:\/\/istories.media\/stories\/2023\/07\/06\/rosstat-poteri\/","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C27"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C28","first-page":"1482","article-title":"Fifty years of violent war deaths from Vietnam to Bosnia: Analysis of data from the World Health Survey programme","volume-title":"BMJ","author":"Obermeyer","year":"2008"},{"volume-title":"Demography: Measuring and modeling population processes","year":"2001","author":"Preston","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C29"},{"doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Radford\n              B. J.\n            \n          , DaiY., StoehrN., ScheinA., FernandezM., & SajidH. (2023). Estimating conflict losses and reporting biases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120, e2307372120. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2307372120","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C30","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2307372120"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"651","DOI":"10.1177\/0022343310378914","article-title":"Introducing ACLED: An armed conflict location and event dataset","volume":"47","author":"Raleigh","year":"2010","journal-title":"Journal of Peace Research"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4545","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.8314","article-title":"Modeling excess deaths after a natural disaster with application to Hurricane Maria","volume":"38","author":"Rivera","year":"2019","journal-title":"Statistics in Medicine"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"171","DOI":"10.1016\/j.crvi.2007.12.001","article-title":"Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003","volume":"331","author":"Robine","year":"2008","journal-title":"Comptes Rendus Biologies"},{"doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Simonsen\n              L.\n            \n          , SpreeuwenbergP., LustigR., TaylorR. J., FlemingD. M., KronemanM.,\u00a0.\u00a0.\u00a0.\u00a0PagetW. J. (2013). Global mortality estimates for the 2009 influenza pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A modeling study. PLoS Medicine, 10, e1001558. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001558","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C34","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001558"},{"issue":"4","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1177\/2053168017732642","article-title":"Half a million excess deaths in the Iraq war: Terms and conditions may apply","volume":"4","author":"Spagat","year":"2017","journal-title":"Research & Politics"},{"key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1007\/s10680-005-6852-5","article-title":"War-related deaths in the 1992\u20131995 armed conflicts in Bosnia and Herzegovina: A critique of previous estimates and recent results","volume":"21","author":"Tabeau","year":"2005","journal-title":"European Journal of Population\/Revue Europ\u00e9enne de D\u00e9mographie"},{"unstructured":"U.S. Department of Defense. (2024). Casualty status [Release]. Available from https:\/\/www.defense.gov\/casualty.pdf","key":"2025041612575105500_dem11862998C37"}],"container-title":["Demography"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/read.dukeupress.edu\/demography\/article-pdf\/62\/2\/335\/2255158\/335kobak.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/read.dukeupress.edu\/demography\/article-pdf\/62\/2\/335\/2255158\/335kobak.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,16]],"date-time":"2025-04-16T16:58:04Z","timestamp":1744822684000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/read.dukeupress.edu\/demography\/article\/62\/2\/335\/398920\/War-Fatalities-in-Russia-in-2022-2023-Estimated"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,1]]},"references-count":37,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,1]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1215\/00703370-11862998","relation":{},"ISSN":["0070-3370","1533-7790"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0070-3370"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1533-7790"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2025,4]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,1]]}}}