{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]],"date-time":"2026-05-27T10:03:57Z","timestamp":1779876237043,"version":"3.53.1"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.12688\/f1000research.169601.1","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,19]],"date-time":"2025-12-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1766102400000}},{"DOI":"10.12688\/f1000research.169601.2","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,19]],"date-time":"2025-12-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1766102400000}}],"reference-count":32,"publisher":"F1000 Research Ltd","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,19]],"date-time":"2025-12-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1766102400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["f1000research.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["F1000Res"],"abstract":"<ns3:p>The increasing prevalence of vector-borne diseases like West Nile virus (WNV) highlights the critical need for predictive modelling tools that can guide public health decision-making, particularly given the absence of effective vaccines. We developed a modular computational framework that simulates and analyses WNV transmission dynamics through compartmental models capturing the intricate ecological interactions among avian hosts, mosquito vectors, and human populations. Our system integrates epidemiological parameters with customizable intervention mechanisms, facilitating the assessment of scenario-specific mitigation approaches. Distinguishing itself from conventional static models, this framework enables users to model dynamic, time-sensitive interventions including targeted mosquito control and strategic bird population management, the two principal containment strategies currently employed against WNV. Using simulations that reflect realistic outbreak scenarios, we evaluated how varying intervention intensities and implementation timings affect epidemic progression. Our findings reveal that early implemented, dual-target strategies addressing both vector populations and avian reservoirs can substantially reduce transmission dynamics and minimize human exposure risk. This framework serves as a comprehensive decision-support platform for policymakers and vector control agencies, delivering mechanistic insights into the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against zoonotic pathogens within complex ecological systems. The tool\u2019s modular design and scenario-testing capabilities make it particularly valuable for proactive outbreak preparedness and evidence-based intervention planning.<\/ns3:p>","DOI":"10.12688\/f1000research.169601.3","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]],"date-time":"2026-05-27T09:24:17Z","timestamp":1779873857000},"page":"902","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.12688\/f1000research.crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Graph-based epidemic modeling of West Nile Virus: Forecasting and containment"],"prefix":"10.12688","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9485-3877","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Francesco","family":"Branda","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Unit of Medical Statistics and Molecular Epidemiology, Rome University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome"},{"name":"Rome Genomics, AI, Bioinformatics, Infectious Diseases, Epidemiology Group (GABIE)"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-5991-4052","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mohamed Mustaf","family":"Ahmed","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences Mogadishu Banaadir SIMAD University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Annamaria","family":"Defilippo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgical and Medical Sciences, Catanzaro Magna Graecia University of Catanzaro"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8150-0039","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ugo","family":"Lomoio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgical and Medical Sciences, Catanzaro Magna Graecia University of Catanzaro"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Barbara","family":"Puccio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgical and Medical Sciences, Catanzaro Magna Graecia University of Catanzaro"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Massimo","family":"Ciccozzi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unit of Medical Statistics and Molecular Epidemiology, Rome University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome"},{"name":"Rome Genomics, AI, Bioinformatics, Infectious Diseases, Epidemiology Group (GABIE)"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fabio","family":"Scarpa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Rome Genomics, AI, Bioinformatics, Infectious Diseases, Epidemiology Group (GABIE)"},{"name":"Department of Biomedical Sciences Sassari University of Sassari"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pierangelo","family":"Veltri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Computer, Modeling, Electronics and System Engineering Rende University of Calabria"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5542-2997","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pietro Hiram","family":"Guzzi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgical and Medical Sciences, Catanzaro Magna Graecia University of Catanzaro"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2560","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.3390\/diseases10030038","article-title":"Predicting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italian regions: the Calabria case study, February 2020\u2013March 2022.","volume":"10","author":"F Branda","year":"2022 Jun 30","journal-title":"Diseases."},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S1-S1","DOI":"10.1086\/341763","article-title":"Computational models.","volume":"69","author":"P Humphreys","year":"2002 Sep","journal-title":"Philos. 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B."},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.8355821","author":"F Branda","year":"2023","journal-title":"Zenodo."}],"container-title":["F1000Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/f1000research.com\/articles\/14-902\/v3\/xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/f1000research.com\/articles\/14-902\/v3\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/f1000research.com\/articles\/14-902\/v3\/iparadigms","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]],"date-time":"2026-05-27T09:24:33Z","timestamp":1779873873000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/f1000research.com\/articles\/14-902\/v3"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,19]]},"references-count":32,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.12688\/f1000research.169601.3","relation":{"has-version":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.12688\/f1000research.169601.2","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.12688\/f1000research.169601.1","asserted-by":"subject"}]},"ISSN":["2046-1402"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2046-1402","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,19]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Indexed","URL":"https:\/\/f1000research.com\/articles\/14-902\/v3#article-reports","order":0,"name":"referee-status","label":"Referee status","group":{"name":"current-referee-status","label":"Current Referee Status"}},{"value":"10.5256\/f1000research.190502.r432695, Michael Wimberly, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, 22 Nov 2025, version 2, indexed","URL":"https:\/\/f1000research.com\/articles\/14-902\/v2#referee-response-432695","order":0,"name":"referee-response-432695","label":"Referee Report","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"10.5256\/f1000research.186955.r414393, Laura Antonelli, Istituto of High Performance Computing and Networks, National Research Council, Via P. Castellino, Naples, 25 Oct 2025, version 1, 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations, 1 not approved","URL":"https:\/\/f1000research.com\/articles\/14-902\/v1#referee-response-414393","order":1,"name":"referee-response-414393","label":"Referee Report","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"<b>Mohamed Mustaf Ahmed<\/b>; \n<i>Posted: 29 Oct 2025<\/i>; GENERAL COMMENT: This study provides a substantial conceptual and methodological advancement in modelling West Nile Virus (WNV) transmission through an adaptive, network-based SEIRD framework. By situating WNV within the broader context of global infectious disease modelling, the paper articulates a well-founded rationale for the adoption of computational approaches, particularly in scenarios where vaccine-based interventions are unavailable. The focus on network-based representations, capable of capturing the complex and heterogeneous ecological interactions among mosquitoes, avian reservoirs, and &nbsp;human hosts, is both scientifically rigorous and conceptually sophisticated. Furthermore, the proposed framework effectively integrates principles from epidemiology, data science, and ecology, thereby embodying a comprehensive and multidisciplinary \u201cOne Health\u201d approach. n my opinion, the manuscript requires minor corrections as suggested below:  \n<b>Comment 1:<\/b>&nbsp;Some sentences are too long and syntactically complex, which can obscure meaning (e.g., \u201cThe interaction between these populations is encoded within a heterogeneous contact graph that is dynamic in time\u2026\u201d could be simplified). Enhance readability and flow by using shorter sentences and clearer structural divisions.&nbsp; \n<b>Response 1: <\/b>We appreciate the reviewer's suggestion and have revised the paper to enhance its structure and improve the flow of the discussion.  \n<b>Comment 2: <\/b>Consider a brief comparative paragraph discussing how this model advances or differs from prior WNV modelling studies.&nbsp; \n<b>Response 2: <\/b>We thank the reviewer for this feedback. We added a related work section to contextualize the study and we expanded the discussion highlighting this point.  \n<b>Comment 3: <\/b>Citations are frequent and well-placed, but are inconsistently formatted (some are numeric references, others have textual mentions); you should use a standard format. \n<b>Response 3:&nbsp;<\/b>We appreciate the reviewer\u2019s comment, and we fixed these formatting inconsistencies.  \n<b>Comment 4:<\/b> Some characters in the figures are unreadable (e.g. see Fig. 1, the second blue ball) \n<b>Response 4:&nbsp;<\/b>We thank the reviewer for the constructive feedback. We have recreated Figure 1 to enhance its precision and readability.  \n<b>Comment 5:<\/b> The titles of Figures 2 and 3 are redundant and could be removed.&nbsp; \n<b>Response 5: <\/b>We thank the reviewer for this suggestion. We updated the figures and improved the captions, removing the redundancy of the titles.","URL":"https:\/\/f1000research.com\/articles\/14-902\/v3#referee-comment-14869","order":2,"name":"referee-comment-14869","label":"Referee Comment","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"10.5256\/f1000research.186955.r423796, Katrin Gaardbo Kuhn, Gargi Deshpande, The University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, 24 Nov 2025, version 1, 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations, 1 not approved","URL":"https:\/\/f1000research.com\/articles\/14-902\/v1#referee-response-423796","order":3,"name":"referee-response-423796","label":"Referee Report","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"<b>Mohamed Mustaf Ahmed<\/b>; \n<i>Posted: 06 Dec 2025<\/i>; \n<b>General Comments:&nbsp;<\/b> 1. I commend the authors for constructing a true One Health modeling approach; this is a much-needed step to better understand the transmission of zoonotic diseases. Having said that, I think there are major concerns with the construction of the model \u2013 primarily because the key parameters are not defined or listed anywhere in the manuscript. Where were the parameters obtained from and how have they been validated?&nbsp;  \n<b>We appreciate the reviewer\u2019s positive assessment of our effort to develop a genuine One Health modeling framework. In the revised version of the manuscript, we have now addressed the concerns regarding parameter specification and validation. Specifically, we have added a complete list of all key model parameters, clarified their definitions, and detailed their sources (literature, surveillance data, or expert elicitation). We also included a dedicated subsection describing the procedures used to validate these parameters\u2014both through comparison with published estimates and through internal model calibration. These additions ensure that the model\u2019s construction is fully transparent and reproducible.<\/b>   2. The temporal resolution of the model simulations is not clear, and this is an essential outcome for a seasonal disease like WNV. \n<b>We thank the reviewer for highlighting the importance of temporal resolution, particularly for a seasonal disease such as WNV. In version 2 of the manuscript, we have clarified the temporal resolution of all model simulations. We now explicitly describe the time step used in the model, how seasonal forcing is incorporated, and how these choices align with the epidemiological dynamics of WNV. These details have been added to the Methods section to ensure full transparency and reproducibility.<\/b>   3. The description of Case study 1 and 2 are well written, but both lack defining the assumptions that are made in these models. Assumptions such as vector\u2019s ability to acquire, maintain and transmit the virus or host preference and biting rate, effectiveness of control measures should be outlined.&nbsp; \n<b>The primary contribution of this paper is to demonstrate the superior applicability of a novel explainable AI framework designed to foster new research directions in vector-borne disease modelling.<\/b>   4. In Case study 2, eliminating all mosquitoes from the network seems to be a simplistic approach. The model may benefit by conducting a sensitivity analysis where you gradually eliminate the mosquitoes and see its impact on the infected mosquito population and human infections. Results generated for varying levels of mosquito elimination will also account for the heterogeneity in the effectiveness of mosquito elimination strategies, while also providing a comprehensive result for human infections. \n<b>V2: We simulate this strategy by removing significant proportions of mosquito nodes and their transmission links from the contact network, thereby cutting transmission paths between vectors and hosts.<\/b>  5. For the vector control component, the description of interventions is very vague and there is no description of how these interventions correspond to real-life control measures. Also, to which extent is the approach scalable? \n<b>The approach is scalable, as the procedure can be applied to networks of progressively larger size, while allowing the user to adjust the extent of edge removal in accordance with the requirements of the specific application.\u201d<\/b>  6. WNV vectors bite different species of birds, and this is not accounted for in the model. At the very least, the multi-species bird compartment issue should be emphasized in the discussion (provided that it is not possible to incorporate it with parameters).&nbsp; \n<b>V2: One significant limitation is that we did not model multiple bird and mosquito species. Developing this aspect in future research would be valuable for studying its impact on transmission dynamics.<\/b> \n<b>We acknowledge that one significant limitation is that we did not model multiple bird and mosquito species. Developing this aspect in future research would be valuable for studying its impact on transmission dynamics. Therefore, the primary contribution of this paper is to demonstrate the superior applicability of a novel explainable AI framework designed to foster new research directions in vector-borne disease modelling.<\/b>  7. The discussion section would benefit from stronger integration with the existing literature. Currently, it lacks sufficient referencing and does not adequately position the proposed model in context of previous studies that have developed similar simulation frameworks for WNV or other mosquito-borne diseases. This section also doesn\u2019t discuss any limitations or adaptability of the framework. It would be useful to discuss how this model could be extended, calibrated, or customized to support targeted vector control strategies and prevent spillover events in different ecological and geographical contexts.&nbsp; \n<b>We improved both related work and discussion.<\/b>   \n<b>Minor Comments:&nbsp;<\/b> 1. Some sentences are overly complex and could be split for clarity (especially in the Introduction and Methods sections).&nbsp; \n<b>We checked and polished the manuscript.<\/b>  2. Figures:&nbsp;&nbsp;    In figure 1 label each of the three epidemiological submodels-Birds, mosquitoes and humans to make it easier to understand. Also, improve readability (labels are small).&nbsp; In figure 1 the description of the figure says- \u201cSpecifically, mosquitoes acquire infection from infectious birds (Ib) and transmit the virus to susceptible humans (Sh)\u201d, but none of the dotted arrows point to susceptible humans. The transmission route shown in the figure is, infected bird&gt;exposed mosquito&gt;infected mosquito&gt;exposed human which can be misleading based on the description.&nbsp; Harmonize color schemes between Figures 2 and 3.&nbsp;    \n<b>&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/b> \n<b>We improved the quality of all the figures.<\/b>  3. The materials and methods section states- \u201cSimulation was carried out by adopting a network with 1,000 nodes, and a Stochastic Block Model Structure, in which we modelled three communities (Birds, Mosquitos and Human), with a probability of contact within the community p1=0.8 and a probability of contacts between the communities p2=0.2.\u201d Outlining the rationale or providing a reference on why these probabilities were selected would be useful. \n<b>The choice of probabilities p1=0.8 (within-community) and p2=0.2 (between-community)&nbsp; was motivated by the need to generate a clear modular structure in the Stochastic Block Model, which reflects the expected higher frequency of contacts within species compared to cross-species interactions. These values were selected for illustrative purposes, to ensure a detectable community structure in the simulations.<\/b>  4. In the results section, it is stated- \u201cThe drastic reduction of vector density brings the basic reproduction number below the critical threshold of 1, effectively interrupting self-sustaining transmission cycles.\u201d Instead of using drastic, quantify the result to increase its interpretability. \n<b>We detailed the result section to discuss these details.<\/b>  5. The introduction states- \u201cUsing simulation scenarios, we explore the timing, localization, and intensity of mosquito population suppression and its effect on outbreak size, duration, and mortality.\u201d However, the study does not explore aspects like timing, localization and intensity in their analysis. Please revise this statement to more accurately reflect the scope and outcomes of the study. \n<b>We deleted localization word.<\/b>  6. Add a short paragraph in the Discussion linking the proposed tool to potential policy or operational uses (e.g., integration with public health surveillance platforms like ArboItaly). \n<b>We improved the discussion.<\/b>","URL":"https:\/\/f1000research.com\/articles\/14-902\/v3#referee-comment-15031","order":4,"name":"referee-comment-15031","label":"Referee Comment","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"The author(s) declared that no grants were involved in supporting this work","order":5,"name":"grant-information","label":"Grant Information"},{"value":"This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.","order":0,"name":"copyright-info","label":"Copyright"}]}}