{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,20]],"date-time":"2026-08-20T14:34:28Z","timestamp":1787236468886,"version":"build-2736575974"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.12688\/hrbopenres.14222.1","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]],"date-time":"2026-01-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767830400000}}],"reference-count":42,"publisher":"F1000 Research Ltd","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]],"date-time":"2026-01-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767830400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010414","name":"Health Research Board","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["EFP-2024-001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["EFP-2024-001"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010414","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["hrbopenresearch.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["HRB Open Res"],"abstract":"<ns3:p>Introduction Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are a major global health concern, with millions of new cases occurring annually, particularly among young adults. These infections can lead to serious health complications, including infertility and increased risk of HIV, and are compounded by social stigma and mental health challenges. There have been significant global increases in STI diagnoses in recent years. The objective of this systematic review is to synthesise evidence on the predictors of trends in gonorrhoea, chlamydia, syphilis, and HIV over the last ten years. We aim to provide insight into the multifaceted drivers of the recent increasing STI diagnosis rates. Methods We have developed a comprehensive search strategy that includes searching for relevant published literature and grey literature. We will include studies that contain evidence of longitudinal associations between changes in the incidence of diagnoses of four targeted STIs (i.e., gonorrhoea, chlamydia, syphilis, and HIV) during the last ten years. In addition, we will explore changes in sociodemographic and behavioural variables during the same time among representative samples of national populations. We will conduct a narrative analysis of the included studies. Discussion The proposed synthesis plan is part of a larger research project that has been designed in response to the priorities of sexual health policymakers in Ireland. It will provide useful information regarding recent international trends in diagnoses of gonorrhoea, chlamydia, syphilis, and HIV, which will inform further efforts to understand the recent increases in STI diagnoses in Ireland. We acknowledge that it will be limited by publication bias, the biases affecting the included studies, a potential lack of data on important sub-populations, and restrictions related to testing availability across countries. Ultimately, trends in STI diagnoses are best understood through the design of comprehensive behavioural surveillance systems, which this review may usefully inform.<\/ns3:p>","DOI":"10.12688\/hrbopenres.14222.2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]],"date-time":"2026-01-08T10:14:06Z","timestamp":1767867246000},"page":"88","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.12688\/hrbopenres.crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Predictors of Recent Incidence Trends in Sexually Transmitted Infections: A Systematic Review Protocol"],"prefix":"10.12688","volume":"8","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5819-1805","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Santiago","family":"Garcia Guerrero","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Robbie","family":"Lawlor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ashling","family":"Bourke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3943-0724","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"John P.","family":"Gilmore","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Caroline","family":"Kelleher","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3525-1283","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria","family":"Lohan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicola","family":"O'Connell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kate","family":"O'Donnell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3223-1420","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rikke","family":"Siersbaek","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6747-9851","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Giovanni","family":"Villa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4974-9066","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chris","family":"Noone","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2560","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref-1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e7","DOI":"10.4081\/idr.2011.e7","article-title":"Gender inequities in Sexually Transmitted Infections: implications for HIV infection and control in Lagos State, Nigeria.","volume":"3","author":"E Adeyemi","year":"2011","journal-title":"Infect Dis Rep."},{"key":"ref-2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1099\/mgen.0.000359","article-title":"Genomic epidemiology and population structure of Neisseria gonorrhoeae in Norway, 2016\u20132017.","volume":"6","author":"K Alfsnes","year":"2020","journal-title":"Microb Genom."},{"key":"ref-3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12981-021-00351-1","article-title":"The prevalence of depression among adolescent with HIV\/AIDS: a systematic review and meta-analysis.","volume":"18","author":"G Ayano","year":"2021","journal-title":"AIDS Res Ther."},{"key":"ref-4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"75-102","DOI":"10.1123\/jsep.33.1.75","article-title":"Psychological need thwarting in the sport context: assessing the darker side of athletic experience.","volume":"33","author":"K Bartholomew","year":"2011","journal-title":"J Sport Exerc Psychol."},{"key":"ref-5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"531-541","DOI":"10.5195\/jmla.2018.283","article-title":"A systematic approach to searching: an efficient and complete method to develop literature searches.","volume":"106","author":"W Bramer","year":"2018","journal-title":"J Med Libr Assoc."},{"key":"ref-6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"105-118","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cbpra.2017.01.007","article-title":"A novel integrated cognitive-behavioral therapy for anxiety and medication adherence among persons living with HIV\/AIDS.","volume":"25","author":"C Brandt","year":"2018","journal-title":"Cogn Behav Pract."},{"key":"ref-8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"950-956","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/173.4.950","article-title":"The epidemiology of Chlamydia trachomatis within a sexually transmitted diseases core group.","volume":"173","author":"R Brunham","year":"1996","journal-title":"J Infect Dis."},{"key":"ref-9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.l6890","article-title":"Synthesis Without Meta-analysis (SWiM) in systematic reviews: reporting guideline.","volume":"368","author":"M Campbell","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMJ."},{"key":"ref-41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0134286","article-title":"Associated risk factors of STIs and multiple sexual relationships among youths in Malawi.","volume":"10","author":"W Chialepeh","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS One."},{"key":"ref-10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"762-771","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-025-03535-8","article-title":"Preventing HIV in women in Africa.","volume":"31","author":"F Cowan","year":"2025","journal-title":"Nat Med."},{"key":"ref-11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.17226\/25955","article-title":"Psychosocial and behavioral interventions.","author":"J Crowley","year":"2021"},{"key":"ref-12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"131-146","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-031-85130-8_8","article-title":"Addressing sexual health misinformation.","author":"D Dangerfield","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref-13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/MD.0000000000038199","article-title":"Global perspectives on the burden of sexually transmitted diseases: a narrative review.","volume":"103","author":"C Elendu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Medicine (Baltimore)."},{"key":"ref-14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.17605\/OSF.IO\/48M9P","article-title":"Systematic review | PREDICTORS OF RECENT INCIDENCE TRENDS IN SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS","author":"S Garcia-Guerrero","year":"2025"},{"key":"ref-15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9-15","DOI":"10.1016\/j.drugpo.2017.10.008","article-title":"Chemsex, risk behaviours and Sexually Transmitted Infections among men who have sex with men in Dublin, Ireland.","volume":"52","author":"R Glynn","year":"2018","journal-title":"Int J Drug Policy."},{"key":"ref-16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.4543513","article-title":"citationchaser: an R package and Shiny app for forward and backward citations chasing in academic searching.","author":"N Haddaway","year":"2022","journal-title":"Zenodo."},{"key":"ref-17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"35-51","DOI":"10.2217\/fmb.14.110","article-title":"The epidemiology of Sexually Transmitted Infections in the UK: impact of behavior, services and interventions.","volume":"10","author":"G Hughes","year":"2015","journal-title":"Future Microbiol."},{"key":"ref-18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2021-006315","article-title":"Law, criminalisation and HIV in the world: have countries that criminalise achieved more or less successful pandemic response?","volume":"6","author":"M Kavanagh","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMJ Glob Health."},{"key":"ref-42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S250-S258","DOI":"10.1097\/QAI.0000000000000236","article-title":"Health behavior change models for HIV prevention and AIDS care: practical recommendations for a multi-level approach.","volume":"66","author":"M Kaufman","year":"2014","journal-title":"J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr."},{"key":"ref-43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1207-1214","DOI":"10.1177\/10497323221105737","article-title":"Understanding causation in healthcare: an introduction to critical realism.","volume":"32","author":"E Koopmans","year":"2022","journal-title":"Qual Health Res."},{"key":"ref-19","article-title":"HIV risk behaviours among black MSM in Johannesburg, South Africa [Poster abstract]","author":"T Lane","year":"2004"},{"key":"ref-20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"505-509","DOI":"10.1097\/OLQ.0000000000000629","article-title":"US public sexually transmitted disease clinical services in an era of declining public health funding: 2013\u201314.","volume":"44","author":"J Leichliter","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sex Transm Dis."},{"key":"ref-21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"133-139","DOI":"10.4103\/0253-7184.167135","article-title":"Condoms: past, present, and future.","volume":"36","author":"Y Marfatia","year":"2015","journal-title":"Indian J Sex Transm Dis AIDS."},{"key":"ref-22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.lanepe.2023.100742","article-title":"Epidemiology and determinants of re-emerging bacterial Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs) and emerging STIs in Europe.","volume":"34","author":"O Mitj\u00e0","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet Reg Health Eur."},{"key":"ref-24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/2046-4053-4-1","article-title":"Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P) 2015 statement.","volume":"4","author":"D Moher","year":"2015","journal-title":"Syst Rev."},{"key":"ref-25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"147-153","DOI":"10.1097\/XEB.0000000000000054","article-title":"Methodological guidance for systematic reviews of observational epidemiological studies reporting prevalence and cumulative incidence data.","volume":"13","author":"Z Munn","year":"2015","journal-title":"Int J Evid Based Healthc."},{"key":"ref-26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-016-3103-0","article-title":"Gender relations, sexual behaviour, and risk of contracting Sexually Transmitted Infections among women in union in Uganda.","volume":"16","author":"O Nankinga","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMC Public Health."},{"key":"ref-35","article-title":"Quality assessment tool for observational cohort and cross-sectional studies [Measuring instrument]","year":"2021"},{"key":"ref-27","article-title":"Qualitative evidence synthesis for the acceptability of interventions for reducing or preventing the acquisition and transmission of STIs: reducing Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs): evidence review B.","year":"2022"},{"key":"ref-28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2025.103198","article-title":"Beyond behavioural change: prioritising structural solutions to control bacterial Sexually Transmitted Infections.","volume":"83","author":"J Ong","year":"2025","journal-title":"EClinicalMedicine."},{"key":"ref-29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3999-4035","DOI":"10.3934\/mbe.2024177","article-title":"Sexually Transmitted Infections and dating app use.","volume":"21","author":"C Orellana","year":"2024","journal-title":"Math Biosci Eng."},{"key":"ref-30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"317","DOI":"10.3390\/genes9070317","article-title":"The role of aDNA in understanding the coevolutionary patterns of human Sexually Transmitted Infections.","volume":"9","author":"V Pimenoff","year":"2018","journal-title":"Genes (Basel)."},{"key":"ref-31","article-title":"Guidance on the conduct of narrative synthesis in systematic reviews. A product from the ESRC methods programme","author":"J Popay","year":"2006"},{"key":"ref-32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"110-118","DOI":"10.1016\/j.clindermatol.2023.12.002","article-title":"The global burden of Sexually Transmitted Infections.","volume":"42","author":"K Sinka","year":"2024","journal-title":"Clin Dermatol."},{"key":"ref-33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2340\/00015555-3470","article-title":"The changing spectrum of Sexually Transmitted Infections in Europe.","volume":"100","author":"A Stary","year":"2020","journal-title":"Acta Derm Venereol."},{"key":"ref-34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2019-032435","article-title":"Global estimate of the prevalence of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder among adults living with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis.","volume":"10","author":"C Tang","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMJ Open."},{"key":"ref-36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"310-314","DOI":"10.1097\/OLQ.0000000000001367","article-title":"Genital mycoplasma, shigellosis, zika, pubic lice, and other Sexually Transmitted Infections: neither gone nor forgotten.","volume":"48","author":"E Torrone","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sex Transm Dis."},{"key":"ref-37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0212420","article-title":"Online testing for Sexually Transmitted Infections: a whole systems approach to predicting value.","volume":"14","author":"K Turner","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLoS One."},{"key":"ref-38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13690-022-01019-6","article-title":"Population-level predictors of Sexually Transmitted Infection rate changes in Missouri: an ecological study.","volume":"81","author":"E Valleroy","year":"2023","journal-title":"Arch Public Health."},{"key":"ref-39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2016-011312","article-title":"Sexual and testing behaviour associated with Chlamydia trachomatis infection: a cohort study in an STI clinic in Sweden.","volume":"6","author":"I Veli\u010dko","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMJ open."},{"key":"ref-40","article-title":"Implementing the global health sector strategies on HIV, viral hepatitis and Sexually Transmitted Infections, 2022\u20132030: report on progress and gaps 2024.","year":"2024"},{"key":"ref-44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"380-394","DOI":"10.1080\/00224490701629506","article-title":"Longitudinal test of a multiple domain model of adolescent condom use.","volume":"44","author":"R Zimmerman","year":"2007","journal-title":"J Sex Res."}],"container-title":["HRB Open Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/hrbopenresearch.org\/articles\/8-88\/v2\/xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/hrbopenresearch.org\/articles\/8-88\/v2\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/hrbopenresearch.org\/articles\/8-88\/v2\/iparadigms","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,30]],"date-time":"2026-01-30T03:09:17Z","timestamp":1769742557000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/hrbopenresearch.org\/articles\/8-88\/v2"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]]},"references-count":42,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.12688\/hrbopenres.14222.2","relation":{"has-version":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.12688\/hrbopenres.14222.1","asserted-by":"subject"}],"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.21956\/hrbopenres.15748.r52745","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.21956\/hrbopenres.15748.r52744","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.21956\/hrbopenres.15748.r52744","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.21956\/hrbopenres.15748.r52745","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2515-4826"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2515-4826","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Indexed","URL":"https:\/\/hrbopenresearch.org\/articles\/8-88\/v2#article-reports","order":0,"name":"referee-status","label":"Referee status","group":{"name":"current-referee-status","label":"Current Referee Status"}},{"value":"10.21956\/hrbopenres.15748.r52744, Abhishek Lachyan, VMMC and Safdarjung Hospital, New Delhi, Delhi, 10 Jan 2026, version 2, indexed","URL":"https:\/\/hrbopenresearch.org\/articles\/8-88\/v2#referee-response-52744","order":0,"name":"referee-response-52744","label":"Referee Report","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"10.21956\/hrbopenres.15748.r52745, Chantal den Daas, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, 30 Jan 2026, version 2, indexed","URL":"https:\/\/hrbopenresearch.org\/articles\/8-88\/v2#referee-response-52745","order":1,"name":"referee-response-52745","label":"Referee Report","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"This review protocol is part of a project funded by the Health Research Board Ireland\u2013Department of Health Evidence for Policy Programme (EFP-2024-001). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.","order":2,"name":"grant-information","label":"Grant Information"},{"value":"This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.","order":0,"name":"copyright-info","label":"Copyright"}]}}