{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,5]],"date-time":"2026-05-05T06:48:12Z","timestamp":1777963692199,"version":"3.51.4"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.12688\/wellcomeopenres.12483.1","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,15]],"date-time":"2017-12-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1513296000000}}],"reference-count":33,"publisher":"F1000 Research Ltd","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,15]],"date-time":"2017-12-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1513296000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["OPP1106023, OPP1093011, OPP1159934, OPP1132415"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP1106023, OPP1093011, OPP1159934, OPP1132415"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001782","name":"University of Melbourne","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001782","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"Wellcome Trust","award":["201900, 099876"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["201900, 099876"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["wellcomeopenresearch.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Wellcome Open Res"],"abstract":"<ns4:p>\n                    <ns4:bold>Background<\/ns4:bold>\n                    : In 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the \u00a0magnitude of podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia.\n                  <\/ns4:p>\n                  <ns4:p>\n                    <ns4:bold>Methods<\/ns4:bold>\n                    : We used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above), by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015.\n                  <\/ns4:p>\n                  <ns4:p>\n                    <ns4:bold>Results<\/ns4:bold>\n                    : Podoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People\u2019s [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults) were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara) contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%), while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent.\u00a0\n                  <\/ns4:p>\n                  <ns4:p>\n                    <ns4:bold>Conclusions<\/ns4:bold>\n                    : The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is our collective responsibility to scale-up interventions rapidly.\n                  <\/ns4:p>","DOI":"10.12688\/wellcomeopenres.12483.2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,15]],"date-time":"2017-12-15T11:05:27Z","timestamp":1513335927000},"page":"78","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.12688\/wellcomeopenres.crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":35,"title":["Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods"],"prefix":"10.12688","volume":"2","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8526-6996","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kebede","family":"Deribe","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9864-5058","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jorge","family":"Cano","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0640-181X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Emanuele","family":"Giorgi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"David M.","family":"Pigott","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8916-5570","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nick","family":"Golding","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rachel L.","family":"Pullan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Abdisalan M.","family":"Noor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth A.","family":"Cromwell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Aaron","family":"Osgood\u2010Zimmerman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fikre","family":"Enquselassie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Asrat","family":"Hailu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Christopher J. L.","family":"Murray","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8946-7525","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Melanie J.","family":"Newport","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Simon J.","family":"Brooker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Simon I.","family":"Hay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2796-7468","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gail","family":"Davey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"2560","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref-1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1184","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001184","article-title":"Burden 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Africa (WHO\/CDS\/CPE\/CEE\/2000.9)","year":"2000"}],"container-title":["Wellcome Open Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/2-78\/v2\/xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/2-78\/v2\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/2-78\/v2\/iparadigms","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,18]],"date-time":"2020-05-18T14:36:12Z","timestamp":1589812572000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/2-78\/v2"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,15]]},"references-count":33,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.12688\/wellcomeopenres.12483.2","relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.21956\/wellcomeopenres.14630.r29087","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.21956\/wellcomeopenres.14630.r29087","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2398-502X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2398-502X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,15]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Indexed","URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/2-78\/v2#article-reports","order":0,"name":"referee-status","label":"Referee status","group":{"name":"current-referee-status","label":"Current Referee Status"}},{"value":"10.21956\/wellcomeopenres.14630.r29087, Michelle C. Stanton, Department of Parasitology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK, 12 Jan 2018, version 2, indexed","URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/2-78\/v2#referee-response-29087","order":0,"name":"referee-response-29087","label":"Referee Report","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"10.21956\/wellcomeopenres.13516.r25655, Bereket Yakob, Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA, 15 Sep 2017, version 1, indexed","URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/2-78\/v1#referee-response-25655","order":1,"name":"referee-response-25655","label":"Referee Report","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"<b>Kebede Deribe<\/b>; \n<i>Posted: 12 Dec 2017<\/i>; Many thanks for your comments. As it is indicated on the methods section we have used two cross-sectional datasets collected in 2008 and 2013. The data were collected from communities across the country from 775 districts. Podoconiosis endemicity has been defined as prevalence&gt;1%, as it is stated in the methods section of the article. Based on the prevalence data and environmental covariates and using geostatistical modelling we estimated the number of cases of podoconiosis for the year 2015. As can be seen from the results, the magnitude of podoconiosis is estimated to be higher in Amhara, Oromia and SNNP Regional states of Ethiopia. These areas are environmentally more suitable for the occurrence of podoconiosis than others, as it has been demonstrated in a previous ecological modelling exercise (Deribe K \n<i>et al.<\/i> 2015b). The prevention of podoconiosis is rooted in promotion of regular footwear use and foot hygiene. The treatment is based on hygiene based morbidity management, as it has been discussed throughout the manuscript. By \u201ccollective responsibility\u201d we mean the responsibility of podoconiosis elimination needs the involvement of multiple actors, the government, donors, program planner and implementers, that should act collectively to provide services to the people who need them.\n<b>Reference<\/b>Deribe K, Cano J, Newport MJ, Golding N, Pullan RL, Sime H, Gebretsadik A, Assefa A, Kebede A, Hailu A, Rebollo MP, Shafi O, Bockarie MJ, Aseffa A, Hay SI, Reithinger R, Enquselassie F, Davey G and Brooker SJ. 2015b. &quot;Mapping and Modelling the Geographical Distribution and Environmental Limits of Podoconiosis in Ethiopia.&quot; PLoS Negl Trop Dis 9(7):e0003946.","URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/2-78\/v2#referee-comment-3262","order":2,"name":"referee-comment-3262","label":"Referee Comment","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"10.21956\/wellcomeopenres.13516.r26135, Henok Tadesse Ayele, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada, 01 Nov 2017, version 1, indexed","URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/2-78\/v1#referee-response-26135","order":3,"name":"referee-response-26135","label":"Referee Report","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"<b>Kebede Deribe<\/b>; \n<i>Posted: 12 Dec 2017<\/i>; Thanks for taking the time to review our manuscript. We have provided the summary of the response to your comments. The WHO guidelines for lymphatic filariasis (LF) mapping recommend the selection of two villages per district. We have adopted this for integrated mapping of LF and podoconiosis, as detailed in previous publication (Sime \n<i>et al. <\/i>2014). In our subsequent analysis we have demonstrated that podoconiosis has higher range of spatial dependence than LF (50X50km grid) (Deribe \n<i>et al.<\/i> 2015a).We take communities as common name for administrative level next to \n<i>kebele<\/i>, this could be \n<i>\u201cgote\u201d,<\/i> which differs from region to region. The detailed sampling strategy used and their implications have been discussed in our previous publications (Deribe\n<i> et al. <\/i>2015a, Sime \n<i>et al.<\/i> 2014). In the current model we have included seven covariates which have shown to be associated with podoconiosis in Ethiopia; clay fraction, silt fraction, elevation (altitude), slope, distance from closest waterway, Enhanced Vegetation Index [EVI]) and precipitation (Deribe et al. 2015a, Deribe et al. 2015b). The covariates were available as gridded maps and therefore suitables for being used eventually for projection on unsampled areas. Mean annual land surface temperature showed multicollinearity with other variable and was excluded from the analysis (Deribe \n<i>et al.<\/i> 2015a, Deribe\n<i> et al.<\/i> 2015b). We decided to include night-light emissivity as a proxy of poverty, as it\u2019s detailed in methods section in the manuscript. Previous studies have demonstrated that night light emissivity can be associated with household consumption, assets and poverty (Jean \n<i>et al.<\/i> 2016).We have acknowledged in the manuscript that the lack of individual and household covariates at the spatial resolution of our analysis is one of the limitation of our study, what would explain the wide confidence interval in the model prediction. As we replied to another reviewer, unfortunately, individual factors such as genetic predisposition and footwear use, key factors for the occurrence of podoconiosis, are not available in a suitable format for making projections (continuous gridded format).In the discussion, we have acknowledged that one of the possible improvements of the current analysis would be the inclusion of individual-level risk factors. However Slater and Michael (Slater and Michael 2013) developed a geostatistical model for LF that did not differ from our approach; also, they did not include individual-level variables to fit final model. Their model differs from ours in the modelling approach implemented, they used Bayesian inference for fitting a geostatistical model whereas we used a likelihood-based approach. In this regard, we do not expect any tangible difference in our predictive inferences, had we used a Bayesian framework. Our approach pursues to maximize the likelihood function, thereby not making any assumptions on priors which may not be informative.\n<b>References <\/b>Deribe K, Brooker SJ, Pullan RL, Sime H, Gebretsadik A, Assefa A, Kebede A, Hailu A, Rebollo MP, Shafi O, Bockarie MJ, Aseffa A , Reithinger R, Cano J, Enquselassie F, Newport MJ and Davey G. 2015a. &quot;Epidemiology and Individual, Household and Geographical Risk Factors of Podoconiosis in Ethiopia: Results from the First Nationwide Mapping.&quot; Am J Trop Med Hyg 92(1):148\u201358.Deribe K, Cano J, Newport MJ, Golding N, Pullan RL, Sime H, Gebretsadik A, Assefa A, Kebede A, Hailu A, Rebollo MP, Shafi O, Bockarie MJ, Aseffa A, Hay SI, Reithinger R, Enquselassie F, Davey G and Brooker SJ. 2015b. &quot;Mapping and Modelling the Geographical Distribution and Environmental Limits of Podoconiosis in Ethiopia.&quot; PLoS Negl Trop Dis 9(7):e0003946.Jean N, Burke M, Xie M, Davis WM, Lobell DB and Ermon S. 2016. &quot;Combining Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning to Predict Poverty.&quot; Science 353(6301):790.Sime H, Deribe K, Assefa A, Newport MJ, Enquselassie F, Gebretsadik A, Kebede A, Hailu A, Shafi O, Aseffa A, Reithinger R, Brooker SJ, Pullan RL, Cano J, Meribo K, Pavluck A, Bockarie MJ, Rebollo MP and Davey G. 2014. &quot;Integrated Mapping of Lymphatic Filariasis and Podoconiosis: Lessons Learnt from Ethiopia.&quot; Parasit Vectors 7(1):397.Slater H and Michael E. 2013. &quot;Mapping, Bayesian Geostatistical Analysis and Spatial Prediction of Lymphatic Filariasis Prevalence in Africa.&quot; PLoS One 8(8):e71574.","URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/2-78\/v2#referee-comment-3263","order":4,"name":"referee-comment-3263","label":"Referee Comment","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"10.21956\/wellcomeopenres.13516.r26136, Delenasaw Yewhalaw, Tropical and Infectious Diseases Research Center, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia, 06 Nov 2017, version 1, indexed","URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/2-78\/v1#referee-response-26136","order":5,"name":"referee-response-26136","label":"Referee Report","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"<b>Kebede Deribe<\/b>; \n<i>Posted: 12 Dec 2017<\/i>; Many thanks for your thoughtful comments. As you rightly indicated the study used data from two surveys conducted between 2008 and 2013. We have estimated the number of podoconiosis cases for the years 2015 because we have raster data of population density data for Ethiopia for 2010, 2015 and 2020. The closest year to our estimates and the current period would be 2015. Given the chronic nature of podoconiosis we do not expect significant incident cases to affect our estimates significantly. Nonetheless we take your point of the need for updating the estimates and figures for the years to come as more epidemiological data and covariates become available.We have acknowledged and discussed the potential reasons for wide confidence interval.Multilevel factors are involved in podoconiosis risk and diseases progression (individuals, household and environmental). Individual factors such as genetic susceptibility and footwear use are not available at the format and resolution (continuous gridded format) required for such geostatistical analysis. Given the limitation, nonetheless, our estimates provide important information for planning and monitoring progress in the control and elimination of podoconiosis. Temperature and relative humidity have been considered in our previous analysis and were excluded because of multicollinearity with other covariates and therefore excluded from the analysis. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Thank you again for reviewing our manuscript.","URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/2-78\/v2#referee-comment-3261","order":6,"name":"referee-comment-3261","label":"Referee Comment","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"This work was supported by the Wellcome Trust [201900 and 099876]; the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1106023, OPP1093011, OPP1132415 and OPP1159934) and by a McKenzie fellowship from the University of Melbourne. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.","order":7,"name":"grant-information","label":"Grant Information"},{"value":"This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.","order":0,"name":"copyright-info","label":"Copyright"}]}}