{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,23]],"date-time":"2026-06-23T04:01:54Z","timestamp":1782187314071,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"F1000 Research Ltd","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,26]],"date-time":"2022-05-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1653523200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000268","name":"Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["BB\/P010598\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BB\/P010598\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000268","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000277","name":"Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["SE3290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SE3290"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000277","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000277","name":"Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["SE3292"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SE3292"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000277","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["209818"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["209818"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"Strategic Blue Cloud Fund to Fight COVID-19","award":["003"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["003"]}]},{"name":"Roslin ISP2","award":["BBS\/E\/D\/20002174"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BBS\/E\/D\/20002174"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["wellcomeopenresearch.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Wellcome Open Res"],"abstract":"<ns3:p>\n                    <ns3:bold>Background<\/ns3:bold>\n                    : Mobility restrictions prevent the spread of infections to disease-free areas, and early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most countries imposed severe restrictions on mobility as soon as it was clear that containment of local outbreaks was insufficient to control spread. These restrictions have adverse impacts on the economy and other aspects of human health, and it is important to quantify their impact for evaluating their future value.\n                  <\/ns3:p>\n                  <ns3:p>\n                    <ns3:bold>Methods<\/ns3:bold>\n                    : Here we develop Scotland Coronavirus transmission Model (SCoVMod), a model for COVID-19 in Scotland, which presents unusual challenges because of its diverse geography and population conditions. Our fitted model captures spatio-temporal patterns of mortality in the first phase of the epidemic to a fine geographical scale.\n                  <\/ns3:p>\n                  <ns3:p>\n                    <ns3:bold>Results<\/ns3:bold>\n                    : We find that lockdown restrictions reduced transmission rates down to an estimated 12\\% of its pre-lockdown rate. We show that, while the timing of COVID-19 restrictions influences the role of the transmission rate on the number of COVID-related deaths, early reduction in long distance movements does not. However, poor health associated with deprivation has a considerable association with mortality; the Council Area (CA) with the greatest health-related deprivation was found to have a mortality rate 2.45 times greater than the CA with the lowest health-related deprivation considering all deaths occurring outside of carehomes.\n                  <\/ns3:p>\n                  <ns3:p>\n                    <ns3:bold>Conclusions<\/ns3:bold>\n                    : We find that in even an early epidemic with poor case ascertainment, a useful spatially explicit model can be fit with meaningful parameters based on the spatio-temporal distribution of death counts. Our simple approach is useful to strategically examine trade-offs between travel related restrictions and physical distancing, and the effect of deprivation-related factors on outcomes.\n                  <\/ns3:p>","DOI":"10.12688\/wellcomeopenres.17716.1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,26]],"date-time":"2022-05-26T06:20:11Z","timestamp":1653546011000},"page":"161","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.12688\/wellcomeopenres.crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["SCoVMod \u2013 a spatially explicit mobility and deprivation adjusted model of first wave COVID-19 transmission dynamics"],"prefix":"10.12688","volume":"7","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7650-1598","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christopher 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E.","family":"Atkins","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel","family":"Balaz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ga\u00ebl","family":"Beaun\u00e9e","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul R.","family":"Bessell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0266-3292","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jessica","family":"Enright","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Adam","family":"Kleczkowski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gianluigi","family":"Rossi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anne-Sophie","family":"Ruget","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0919-6401","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rowland 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status","group":{"name":"current-referee-status","label":"Current Referee Status"}},{"value":"10.21956\/wellcomeopenres.19604.r51159, Christopher Davis, Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK, 07 Jul 2022, version 1, indexed","URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/7-161\/v1#referee-response-51159","order":0,"name":"referee-response-51159","label":"Referee Report","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"10.21956\/wellcomeopenres.19604.r50789, Cameron Zachreson, School of Computing and Information Systems, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic, Australia, 11 Jul 2022, version 1, indexed","URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/7-161\/v1#referee-response-50789","order":1,"name":"referee-response-50789","label":"Referee Report","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"This work was supported by Wellcome [209818; to RRK]; the Roslin ISP2 (theme 3) [BBS\/E\/D\/20002174]; the BBSRC [BB\/P010598\/1]; the Strategic Blue Cloud Fund to Fight COVID-19 grant [003]. The simulation model was developed from a code base developed under Defra projects [SE3290 and SE3292]. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.","order":2,"name":"grant-information","label":"Grant Information"},{"value":"This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.","order":0,"name":"copyright-info","label":"Copyright"}]}}