{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,5]],"date-time":"2026-05-05T12:33:05Z","timestamp":1777984385949,"version":"3.51.4"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.12688\/wellcomeopenres.24901.1","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,13]],"date-time":"2026-03-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1773360000000}}],"reference-count":89,"publisher":"F1000 Research Ltd","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,13]],"date-time":"2026-03-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1773360000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["226727"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["226727"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"CNPq\/Fapemig","award":["APQ-06591-24"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["APQ-06591-24"]}]},{"name":"Medical Research Council","award":["MR\/X020258\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/X020258\/1"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["wellcomeopenresearch.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Wellcome Open Res"],"abstract":"<ns3:p>Yellow fever (YF) remains a significant public health threat in tropical regions, particularly in South America and Africa. The combined forces of climate change, land-use, urbanisation, globalisation, and insufficient surveillance and health infrastructure are driving the re-emergence and expansion of YF into new areas. While mathematical models have been used to estimate transmission risk, disease burden, and the impact of vaccination, there remains a crucial gap in mechanistic models that explicitly capture how climate and environmental changes directly influence YF transmission. To address this gap, we convened a workshop in Brazil as part of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium\u2019s Climate Change programme, bringing together national and international experts. The workshop aimed to present current modelling approaches, identify key knowledge gaps, and develop strategies to improve data collection and model applicability. Discussions highlighted major uncertainties regarding vectors, non-human primates, surveillance sensitivity, vaccination, and climatic and environmental drivers. This paper synthesises the outcomes of the workshop, including priority areas for future research and recommendations for advancing mechanistic YF modelling in the context of climate change, with a focus on both Brazil and broader tropical regions.<\/ns3:p>","DOI":"10.12688\/wellcomeopenres.24901.2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,13]],"date-time":"2026-03-13T09:39:06Z","timestamp":1773394746000},"page":"596","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.12688\/wellcomeopenres.crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Mechanistic yellow fever modelling under climate change in Brazil and beyond: Information gaps and future steps"],"prefix":"10.12688","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Livia","family":"Abdalla","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3892-5274","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ang\u00e9lica S. 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We have responded to the points raised below and in 'version 2' of the manuscript.<\/i> The manuscript is presented as an Open Letter but functions as a hybrid between a mini-review and a workshop report. I suggest clarifying in the Introduction that it summarises an expert workshop and proposes a research agenda for yellow fever modelling under climate change, using Brazil as a case study. Please also specify which insights are Brazil-specific and which are transferable \u201cbeyond\u201d Brazil. \n<b><i>Thank you, we have included a sentence at the end of the introduction to clarify the intent and added further to the conclusion of the transferability of the conclusions.<\/i><\/b> The workshop methods underlying the prioritisation (Figure 1) need more detail. A short \u201cWorkshop methods\u201d subsection should describe number and profile of participants, how priorities were collected (survey, voting, consensus) and what scale or ranking system was used. This would give more weight to the prioritised gaps. \n<b><i>We have included a further section including numbers of participants, disciplines and process for identifying gaps.<\/i><\/b> The different domains (climate\/land-use, vectors, non-human primates, surveillance, vaccination, virus\/genomics) are well discussed but somewhat in parallel. A simple conceptual figure linking climate\/land-use \u2192 vectors\/NHPs \u2192 viral dynamics \u2192 surveillance signals \u2192 vaccination decisions \u2192 modelling outputs, with key data gaps marked at each step, would greatly help readers. \n<b><i>Thank you for this comment. We have included a new figure, figure 2, which links the subjects and brings out some of the major challenges with each.<\/i><\/b> The link between data gaps and concrete public health decisions could be made more explicit. At the end of each subsection, one or two sentences could indicate how failing to improve those data constrains decisions (e.g. where to prioritise vaccination, where to strengthen NHP or entomological surveillance). \n<b><i>We have now included one-two sentences at the end of each section to emphasise what the negative outcomes are of not addressing the issues from a modelling perspective, and how this may translate into public health decisions<\/i>.<\/b> Given the emphasis on climate change and Aedes expansion, a short paragraph explicitly discussing current and future risk of urban yellow fever in Brazil would be valuable, integrating evidence and expert opinion on how climate and vector ecology might alter that risk. \n<b><i>Thank you for this important suggestion. We agree that a clearer discussion of the current and future risk of urban yellow fever in Brazil- considering climate change and Aedes expansion- adds value to the manuscript. We have now incorporated a concise discussion in the Vector section&nbsp; that synthesizes recent entomological and genomic evidence, as well as landscape and climate-sensitive modeling, to show that the risk of urban YF re-emergence in Brazil is tangible, though not yet widely detectable.<\/i><\/b> In the virus\/genomics section, it would help to be more explicit about how genomic data would feed mechanistic models (e.g. refining parameters such as number of introductions, dispersal speeds, transmission duration, R\u2080\/R\u2091 in different ecological contexts, and how phylogeography can be coupled to spatial risk models). \n<b><i>Thank you for this point, we have expanded the potential use in modelling. The integration of epidemiological and genetic data and knowledge is a vast and promising field that allows for the improvement of parameters and methodological approaches for the construction of mechanistic models. We will elaborate on this point in the section, including references such as https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/molbev\/msz106 and https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41564-022-01233-6<\/i><\/b>","URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/10-596\/v2#referee-comment-6454","order":1,"name":"referee-comment-6454","label":"Referee Comment","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"10.21956\/wellcomeopenres.28695.r150724, Sakarn Charoensakulchai, Mahidol University, Salaya, Nakhon Pathom, 20 Mar 2026, version 2, indexed","URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/10-596\/v2#referee-response-150724","order":2,"name":"referee-response-150724","label":"Referee Report","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"10.21956\/wellcomeopenres.28695.r150918, Preety Kalra, Mathematics and Statistics, Lovely Professional University School of Chemical Engineering and Physical Sciences, Phagwara, Punjab, 31 Mar 2026, version 2, indexed","URL":"https:\/\/wellcomeopenresearch.org\/articles\/10-596\/v2#referee-response-150918","order":3,"name":"referee-response-150918","label":"Referee Report","group":{"name":"article-reports","label":"Article Reports"}},{"value":"This work was supported by Wellcome [226727]; Medical Research Council\r\n[MR\/X020258\/1]; CNPq\/Fapemig [APQ-06591-24] .KAMG,\tKJF,\tSJ\tacknowledge\tfunding\tfrom\tthe\tMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference\r\nMR\/X020258\/1), funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC). This UK funded award is carried out in the frame of the Global Health EDCTP3 Joint Undertaking. A.S. da Mata acknowledges the financial support from CN- Pq\/Fapemig APQ-06591-24. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.","order":4,"name":"grant-information","label":"Grant Information"},{"value":"This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.","order":0,"name":"copyright-info","label":"Copyright"}]}}