{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,5]],"date-time":"2025-12-05T09:43:58Z","timestamp":1764927838551,"version":"3.46.0"},"reference-count":64,"publisher":"Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)","issue":"12","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Management Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>People often consult experts to provide solutions to their problems. Oftentimes, an initial attempt to solve a problem fails, and these experts (e.g., advisors, consultants, specialists, and service providers) will resort to a backup plan. A backup plan can be presented when it is needed (i.e., after an initial failure) or in advance (i.e., before a potential failure). We examine how the timing of disclosure of a backup plan affects judgments of an expert\u2019s competence. We show that although people expect experts to have a backup plan, they react more negatively if it is presented after (versus before) it is needed, all things equal. This \u201ccompetence penalty\u201d disappears when people are prompted to think about what an expert would do in case of failure as indeed, an alternative plan is expected. Importantly, our findings indicate that there is no competence penalty for early disclosure of a backup plan, regardless of the outcome of the initial plan: if it has failed, has succeeded, or is still ongoing. However, we do find one exception; early disclosure has a negative impact if multiple backup plans are disclosed while the initial plan is in progress.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>This paper was accepted by Jack Soll, behavioral economics and decision analysis.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>Funding: Funding for all studies was provided by the MUMA College of Business, University of South Florida.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1287\/mnsc.2023.02615 .<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.2023.02615","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,8]],"date-time":"2025-04-08T11:16:47Z","timestamp":1744111007000},"page":"9898-9916","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Backup Plans: The Impact of Disclosure on Perceptions of Expert Competence"],"prefix":"10.1287","volume":"71","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6069-1718","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mauricio","family":"Palmeira","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Muma College of Business, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, Florida 33701"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6317-2107","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Evan","family":"Polman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Wisconsin School of Business, University of Wisconsin\u2013Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706"}]}],"member":"109","reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.2016.2590"},{"key":"B60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Alquist JL, Baumeister RF (2023) Dealing with uncertain situations.\n                      J. Positive Psych\n                      . 19(6):923\u2013946.","DOI":"10.1080\/17439760.2023.2282781"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.81.1.116"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11747-008-0089-x"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.54.4.569"},{"key":"B61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Baumeister RF, Bratslavsky E, Finkenauer C, Vohs KD (2001) Bad is stronger than good.\n                      Rev. General Psych.\n                      5(4):323\u2013370.","DOI":"10.1037\/\/1089-2680.5.4.323"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/209535"},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/002224299005400206"},{"key":"B62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bonaccio S, Dalal RS (2006) Advice taking and decision-making: An integrative literature review.\n                      Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes\n                      101(2):127\u2013151.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.obhdp.2006.07.001"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.2014.2054"},{"key":"B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/xge0000538"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/209118"},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.116.3.457"},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/1948550612457688"},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/1094670507303012"},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.obhdp.2020.01.008"},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/xge0001388"},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.54.7.493"},{"key":"B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.73.1.186"},{"key":"B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/258978"},{"key":"B63","unstructured":"Hayes AF (2017)\n                      Introduction to Mediation, Moderation, and Conditional Process Analysis, Second Edition: A Regression-Based Approach\n                      (Guilford Publications, New York)."},{"key":"B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0092070302250898"},{"key":"B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/a0016557"},{"key":"B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/a0031039"},{"key":"B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/xge0000756"},{"volume-title":"Victims of Groupthink","year":"1972","author":"Janis IL","key":"B23"},{"key":"B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.1995"},{"key":"B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0034747"},{"key":"B26","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Attitude Strength","author":"Krosnick JA","year":"2014"},{"key":"B27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/00335530360535144"},{"key":"B28","unstructured":"McCollough MA, Bharadwaj SG (1992) The recovery paradox: An examination of consumer satisfaction in relation to disconfirmation, service quality, and attribution based theories. Allen CT, Madden TJ, eds.\n                      Marketing Theory and Applications\n                      , vol. 119 (American Marketing Association, Chicago), 102\u2013107."},{"key":"B29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/xge0000331"},{"key":"B30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.93.1.23"},{"key":"B31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.obhdp.2019.11.009"},{"key":"B32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.2382"},{"key":"B64","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Peters E, Klein W, Kaufman A, Meilleur L, Dixon A (2013) More is not always better: Intuitions about effective public policy can lead to unintended consequences.\n                      Soc. Issues Policy Rev.\n                      7(1):114\u2013148.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1751-2409.2012.01045.x"},{"key":"B33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/0144929X.2016.1186734"},{"key":"B65","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pieters R (2017) Meaningful mediation analysis: Plausible causal inference and informative communication.\n                      J. Consumer Res.\n                      44(3):692\u2013716.","DOI":"10.1093\/jcr\/ucx081"},{"key":"B34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/17456916221134575"},{"key":"B35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/xge0001194"},{"key":"B36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.460"},{"key":"B37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/002224299505900207"},{"key":"B38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/spc3.12329"},{"key":"B39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.obhdp.2015.05.004"},{"key":"B40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3033555"},{"key":"B41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jcr\/ucac060"},{"key":"B42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.obhdp.2013.02.001"},{"key":"B43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167217746341"},{"key":"B44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.obhdp.2011.07.006"},{"key":"B45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1509\/jmr.15.0231"},{"key":"B46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.obhdp.2016.04.003"},{"key":"B47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/002224379903600305"},{"key":"B48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.2000.2926"},{"key":"B49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.2021.3987"},{"key":"B50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/665983"},{"key":"B51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jesp.2008.04.006"},{"key":"B52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9280.2007.01847.x"},{"key":"B53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.obhdp.2014.07.001"},{"key":"B54","first-page":"323","volume-title":"The Future of Consumption: How Technology, Sustainability and Wellbeing Will Transform Retail and Customer Experience","author":"Vredenburg J","year":"2023"},{"key":"B55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.2022.4489"},{"key":"B56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jcr\/ucy050"},{"key":"B57","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/659039"},{"key":"B58","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/208988"},{"key":"B59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/519500"}],"container-title":["Management Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pubsonline.informs.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1287\/mnsc.2023.02615","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,5]],"date-time":"2025-12-05T09:40:26Z","timestamp":1764927626000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pubsonline.informs.org\/doi\/10.1287\/mnsc.2023.02615"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]},"references-count":64,"journal-issue":{"issue":"12","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1287\/mnsc.2023.02615"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1287\/mnsc.2023.02615","relation":{},"ISSN":["0025-1909","1526-5501"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0025-1909"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1526-5501"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]}}}