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We construct selective hedges using a range of forecasting techniques, from simple historical averages to advanced machine learning models, and evaluate their performance based on the expected mean-variance utility of hedge portfolio returns. Out-of-sample results for 24 commodities do not favor selective hedging over traditional hedging as the former increases risk without delivering additional returns. These findings are robust across various hedge reformulations, expanding estimation windows, and rebalancing frequencies.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>This paper was accepted by Lukas Schmid, finance.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>Funding: This research was supported by grants from Audencia Business School and Auckland University of Technology, awarded during A. Fernandez-Perez\u2019s prior tenure.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1287\/mnsc.2024.04940 .<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.2024.04940","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,30]],"date-time":"2025-07-30T13:42:51Z","timestamp":1753882971000},"page":"2525-2544","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Does Speculation in Futures Markets Improve Commodity Hedging Decisions?"],"prefix":"10.1287","volume":"72","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9433-7194","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Adrian","family":"Fernandez-Perez","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6468-9845","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ana-Maria","family":"Fuertes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bayes Business School, City St George\u2019s, University of London, London ECIY 8TZ, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4729-9199","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jo\u00eblle","family":"Miffre","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Audencia Business School, 44312 Nantes, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"109","reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jfineco.2005.03.014"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jbankfin.2016.06.011"},{"key":"B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/261028"},{"key":"B4","first-page":"370","volume":"93","author":"Anderson R","year":"1983","journal-title":"Econom. 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