{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,4]],"date-time":"2026-11-04T00:18:59Z","timestamp":1793751539523,"version":"4.6.1"},"reference-count":16,"publisher":"Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)","issue":"2","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Marketing Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2005,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:p> Today\u2019s managers are very interested in predicting the future purchasing patterns of their customers, which can then serve as an input into \u201clifetime value\u201d calculations. Among the models that provide such capabilities, the Pareto\/NBD \u201ccounting your customers\u201d framework proposed by Schmittlein et al. (1987) is highly regarded. However, despite the respect it has earned, it has proven to be a difficult model to implement, particularly because of computational challenges associated with parameter estimation. <\/jats:p><jats:p> We develop a new model, the beta-geometric\/NBD (BG\/NBD), which represents a slight variation in the behavioral \u201cstory\u201d associated with the Pareto\/NBD but is vastly easier to implement. We show, for instance, how its parameters can be obtained quite easily in Microsoft Excel. The two models yield very similar results in a wide variety of purchasing environments, leading us to suggest that the BG\/NBD could be viewed as an attractive alternative to the Pareto\/NBD in most applications. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1287\/mksc.1040.0098","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2005,5,19]],"date-time":"2005-05-19T08:51:05Z","timestamp":1116492665000},"page":"275-284","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":369,"title":["\u201cCounting Your Customers\u201d the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto\/NBD Model"],"prefix":"10.1287","volume":"24","author":[{"given":"Peter S.","family":"Fader","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 749 Huntsman Hall, 3730 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104-6340"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bruce G. S.","family":"Hardie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"London Business School, Regent\u2019s Park, London NW1 4SA, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ka Lok","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Catalina Health Resource, Blue Bell, Pennsylvania 19422"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"109","reference":[{"key":"B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-8116(00)00011-2"},{"key":"B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9574.00086"},{"key":"B3","volume-title":"Customer Equity","author":"Blattberg Robert C.","year":"2001"},{"key":"B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1520-6653(199922)13:3<2::AID-DIR1>3.0.CO;2-H"},{"key":"B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mksc.1040.0063"},{"key":"B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/inte.31.3s.94.9683"},{"key":"B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/dir.10032"},{"key":"B8","volume-title":"Mathematics of Computation 1943\u20131993: A Half-Century of Computational Mathematics. Proc. Sympos. Appl. Math.","author":"Lozier D. W.","year":"1995"},{"key":"B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1520-6653(199924)13:1<25::AID-DIR3>3.0.CO;2-L"},{"key":"B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1509\/jmkg.65.3.1.18332"},{"key":"B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1509\/jmkg.64.4.17.18077"},{"key":"B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1509\/jmkg.67.1.77.18589"},{"key":"B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mksc.13.1.41"},{"key":"B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.33.1.1"},{"key":"B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mksc.1040.0060"},{"key":"B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0377-2217(99)00326-4"}],"container-title":["Marketing Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pubsonline.informs.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1287\/mksc.1040.0098","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,2]],"date-time":"2023-04-02T19:02:02Z","timestamp":1680462122000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pubsonline.informs.org\/doi\/10.1287\/mksc.1040.0098"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2005,5]]},"references-count":16,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2005,5]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1287\/mksc.1040.0098"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1287\/mksc.1040.0098","relation":{},"ISSN":["0732-2399","1526-548X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0732-2399","type":"print"},{"value":"1526-548X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2005,5]]}}}