{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,3]],"date-time":"2026-10-03T04:19:11Z","timestamp":1791001151007,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":85,"publisher":"American Chemical Society (ACS)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,29]],"date-time":"2017-12-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1514505600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Debates over whether climate change could lead to the amplification of Lyme disease (LD) risk in the future have received much attention. Although recent large-scale disease mapping studies project an overall increase in Lyme disease risk as the climate warms, such conclusions are based on climate-driven models in which other drivers of change, such as land-use\/cover and host population distribution, are less considered.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objectives:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The main objectives were to project the likely future ecological risk patterns of LD in Europe under different assumptions about future socioeconomic and climate conditions and to explore similarity and uncertainty in the projected risks.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>An integrative, spatially explicit modeling study of the ecological risk patterns of LD in Europe was conducted by applying recent advances in process-based modeling of tick-borne diseases, species distribution mapping, and scenarios of land-use\/cover change. We drove the model with stakeholder-driven, integrated scenarios of plausible future socioeconomic and climate change [the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSPs) combined with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)].<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The model projections suggest that future temperature increases may not always amplify LD risk: Low emissions scenarios (RCP2.6) combined with a sustainability socioeconomic scenario (SSP1) resulted in reduced LD risk. The greatest increase in risk was projected under intermediate (RCP4.5) rather than high-end (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios. Climate and land-use change were projected to have different roles in shaping the future regional dynamics of risk, with climate warming being likely to cause risk expansion in northern Europe and conversion of forest to agriculture being likely to limit risk in southern Europe.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Projected regional differences in LD risk resulted from mixed effects of temperature, land use, and host distributions, suggesting region-specific and cross-sectoral foci for LD risk management policy. The integrated model provides an improved explanatory tool for the system mechanisms of LD pathogen transmission and how pathogen transmission could respond to combined socioeconomic and climate changes. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1289\/EHP4615<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp4615","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,24]],"date-time":"2019-06-24T11:00:58Z","timestamp":1561374058000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":59,"title":["Lyme Disease Risks in Europe under Multiple Uncertain Drivers of Change"],"prefix":"10.1021","volume":"127","author":[{"given":"Sen","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Huazhong University of Science and Technology School of Environmental Science and Engineering, , Wuhan,","place":["P.R. China"]},{"name":"Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK"},{"name":"University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute, , Oxford,","place":["UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lucy","family":"Gilbert","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Glasgow Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, , Glasgow,","place":["UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sophie O.","family":"Vanwambeke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universit\u00e9 Catholique de Louvain Georges Lema\u00eetre Centre for Earth and Climate Research, , Louvain-la-Neuve,","place":["Belgium"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jianjun","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute, , Oxford,","place":["UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bethan V.","family":"Purse","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paula A.","family":"Harrison","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"316","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,24]]},"reference":[{"issue":"12","key":"2026080509050464600_micit1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0189092","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0189092","article-title":"Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus","author":"Alkishe","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS One 12"},{"issue":"6145","key":"2026080509050464600_micit2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"514","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1239401","article-title":"Climate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive framework","volume":"341","author":"Altizer","year":"2013","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026080509050464600_micit3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biosystemseng.2011.02.004","article-title":"A dynamic data-based model describing nephropathia epidemica in Belgium","volume":"109","author":"Amirpour Haredasht","year":"2011","journal-title":"Biosyst Eng"},{"key":"2026080509050464600_micit4","volume-title":"European Ungulates and Their Management in the 21st Century","author":"Apollonio","year":"2010"},{"issue":"2","key":"2026080509050464600_micit5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"148","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsci.2005.11.008","article-title":"What can scenario modelling tell us about future European scale agricultural land use, and what not?","volume":"9","author":"Audsley","year":"2006","journal-title":"Environ Sci Policy"},{"issue":"3\u20134","key":"2026080509050464600_micit6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-014-1164-6","article-title":"Interactively modelling land profitability to estimate European agricultural and forest land use under future scenarios of climate, socio-economics and adaptation","volume":"128","author":"Audsley","year":"2015","journal-title":"Clim Change"},{"issue":"10","key":"2026080509050464600_micit7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1027","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2009.0148","article-title":"Seasonal dynamics of Ixodes ricinus in a 3-year period in northern Spain: first survey on the presence of tick-borne encephalitis virus","volume":"10","author":"Barandika","year":"2010","journal-title":"Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026080509050464600_micit8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"177","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-39.1.177","article-title":"Distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae) ticks from the Basque Country, Spain","volume":"39","author":"Barral","year":"2002","journal-title":"J Med Entomol"},{"issue":"2","key":"2026080509050464600_micit9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"88","DOI":"10.1016\/j.medcli.2016.01.021","article-title":"Incidencia de la enfermedad de Lyme en Espa\u00f1a [in Spanish]","volume":"147","author":"Bonet Alav\u00e9s","year":"2016","journal-title":"Med Clin (Barc)"},{"key":"2026080509050464600_micit10","unstructured":"Campbell\n              JA\n            \n          . 1948. 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