{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,11]],"date-time":"2026-04-11T02:38:21Z","timestamp":1775875101677,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":47,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2011,1,20]],"date-time":"2011-01-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1295481600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1001048","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,1,20]],"date-time":"2011-01-20T21:27:59Z","timestamp":1295558879000},"page":"e1001048","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":223,"title":["Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Elise","family":"Payzan-LeNestour","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Peter","family":"Bossaerts","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,1,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1704","DOI":"10.1038\/nn1560","article-title":"Uncertainty-based competition between prefrontal and dorsolateral striatal systems for behavioral control.","volume":"8","author":"ND Daw","year":"2005","journal-title":"Nat Neurosci"},{"key":"ref2","first-page":"117","article-title":"Statistical Models of Conditioning.","author":"P Dayan","year":"1997"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"781","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuron.2006.05.006","article-title":"Resolution of uncertainty in prefrontal cortex.","volume":"50","author":"W Yoshida","year":"2006","journal-title":"Neuron"},{"issue":"9","key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1214","DOI":"10.1038\/nn1954","article-title":"Learning the value of information in an uncertain world.","volume":"10","author":"TEJ Behrens","year":"2007","journal-title":"Nat Neurosci"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"681","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuron.2005.04.026","article-title":"Uncertainty, neuromodulation, and attention.","volume":"46","author":"AJ Yu","year":"2005","journal-title":"Neuron"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"135","DOI":"10.1196\/annals.1390.005","article-title":"Adding prediction risk to the theory of reward learning.","volume":"1104","author":"P Bossaerts","year":"2007","journal-title":"Ann N Y Acad Sci"},{"key":"ref7","first-page":"64","article-title":"A theory of Pavlovian conditioning: Variations in the effectiveness of reinforcement and nonreinforcement.","author":"A Wagner","year":"1972"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"532","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.87.6.532","article-title":"A model for pavlovian learning: variations in the effectiveness of conditioned but not of unconditioned stimuli.","volume":"87","author":"JM Pearce","year":"1980","journal-title":"Psychol Rev"},{"key":"ref9","first-page":"1","article-title":"Bayesian learning in unstable settings: Experimental evidence based on the bandit problem.","author":"E Payzan-LeNestour","year":"2010","journal-title":"Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No 10-28"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"876","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04766","article-title":"Cortical substrates for exploratory decisions in humans.","volume":"441","author":"ND Daw","year":"2006","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1439","DOI":"10.1016\/S1053-8119(03)00251-9","article-title":"Increased activation in the right insula during risk-taking decision making is related to harm avoidance and neuroticism.","volume":"19","author":"MP Paulus","year":"2003","journal-title":"Neuroimage"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3304","DOI":"10.1523\/JNEUROSCI.5070-04.2005","article-title":"Decisions under uncertainty: Probabilistic context influences activation of prefrontal and parietal cortices.","volume":"25","author":"S Huettel","year":"2005","journal-title":"J Neurosci"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2745","DOI":"10.1523\/JNEUROSCI.4286-07.2008","article-title":"Human insula activation reflects risk prediction errors as well as risk.","volume":"28","author":"K Preuschoff","year":"2008","journal-title":"J Neurosci"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"643","DOI":"10.2307\/1884324","article-title":"Risk, ambiguity, and the savage axioms.","volume":"75","author":"D Ellsberg","year":"1961","journal-title":"Q J Econ"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1680","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1115327","article-title":"Neural systems responding to degrees of uncertainty in human decision-making.","volume":"310","author":"M Hsu","year":"2005","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"765","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuron.2006.01.024","article-title":"Neural signatures of economic preferences for risk and ambiguity.","volume":"49","author":"SA Huettel","year":"2006","journal-title":"Neuron"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8360","DOI":"10.1523\/JNEUROSCI.1010-06.2006","article-title":"The role of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex in abstract state-based inference during decision making in humans.","volume":"26","author":"AN Hampton","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Neurosci"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"549","DOI":"10.1016\/S0893-6080(02)00048-5","article-title":"Dopamine: generalization and bonuses.","volume":"15","author":"S Kakade","year":"2002","journal-title":"Neural Netw"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"503","DOI":"10.2307\/1907921","article-title":"Le comportement de l&apos;homme rationnel devant le risque: critique des postulats et axiomes de l&apos;ecole americaine.","volume":"21","author":"M Allais","year":"1953","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"ref20","article-title":"Risk, Uncertainty and Profit.","author":"FH Knight","year":"1921"},{"key":"ref21","article-title":"A Treatise on Probability","author":"JM Keynes","year":"1921"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"449","DOI":"10.1093\/cje\/bep008","article-title":"Ambiguity and uncertainty in Ellsberg and Shackle.","volume":"34","author":"M Basili","year":"2010","journal-title":"Cambridge J Econ"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"519","DOI":"10.1006\/redy.2001.0132","article-title":"Acknowledging misspecification in macroeconomic theory.","volume":"4","author":"LP Hansen","year":"2001","journal-title":"Rev Econ Dyn"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02015.x","article-title":"Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty.","volume":"57","author":"D Draper","year":"1995","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc Series B Stat Methodol"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"827","DOI":"10.1002\/acs.949","article-title":"Learning for non-stationary Dirichlet processes.","volume":"21","author":"A Quinn","year":"2007","journal-title":"Int J Adapt Control Signal Process"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"665","DOI":"10.1016\/S0893-6080(02)00056-4","article-title":"Control of exploitation-exploration meta-parameter in reinforcement learning.","volume":"15","author":"S Ishii","year":"2002","journal-title":"Neural Netw"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"403","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.neuro.28.061604.135709","article-title":"An integrative theory of locus coeruleus-norepinephrine function: adaptive gain and optimal performance.","volume":"28","author":"G Aston-Jones","year":"2005","journal-title":"Annu Rev Neurosci"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"410","DOI":"10.1038\/nn2077","article-title":"Modulators of decision making.","volume":"11","author":"K Doya","year":"2008","journal-title":"Nat Neurosci"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"773","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1995.10476572","article-title":"Bayes factors.","volume":"90","author":"RE Kass","year":"1995","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"381","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuron.2006.06.024","article-title":"Neural differentiation of expected reward and risk in human subcortical structures.","volume":"51","author":"K Preuschoff","year":"2006","journal-title":"Neuron"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1898","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1077349","article-title":"Discrete coding of reward probability and uncertainty by dopamine neurons.","volume":"299","author":"CD Fiorillo","year":"2003","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5287","DOI":"10.1523\/JNEUROSCI.5298-08.2009","article-title":"The hippocampus codes the uncertainty of cue-outcome associations: an intracranial electrophysiological study in humans.","volume":"29","author":"G Vanni-Mercier","year":"2009","journal-title":"J of Neurosci"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1929","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuroimage.2009.04.096","article-title":"Neural correlates of risk prediction error during reinforcement learning in humans.","volume":"47","author":"M d'Acremont","year":"2009","journal-title":"Neuroimage"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1621","DOI":"10.1152\/jn.00745.2006","article-title":"Reward value coding distinct from risk attitude-related uncertainty coding in human reward systems.","volume":"97","author":"PN Tobler","year":"2007","journal-title":"J Neurophysiol"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12574","DOI":"10.1523\/JNEUROSCI.2614-09.2009","article-title":"Neural correlates of value, risk, and risk aversion contributing to decision making under risk.","volume":"29","author":"GI Christopoulos","year":"2009","journal-title":"J Neurosci"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"933","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2007.2098","article-title":"Should I stay or should I go? How the human brain manages the trade-off between exploitation and exploration.","volume":"362","author":"JD Cohen","year":"2007","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci"},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"225","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neunet.2004.12.004","article-title":"Information theory, novelty and hippocampal responses: unpredicted or unpredictable?","volume":"18","author":"BA Strange","year":"2005","journal-title":"Neural Netw"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"805","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuron.2006.02.015","article-title":"Single-trial learning of novel stimuli by individual neurons of the human hippocampus-amygdala complex.","volume":"49","author":"U Rutishauser","year":"2006","journal-title":"Neuron"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"389","DOI":"10.1038\/nn2066","article-title":"Choice, uncertainty and value in prefrontal and cingulate cortex.","volume":"11","author":"MFS Rushworth","year":"2008","journal-title":"Nat Neurosci"},{"key":"ref40","article-title":"The Nature of Explanation.","author":"K Craik","year":"1943"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"214","DOI":"10.2307\/1419898","article-title":"Perceptual set as an artifact of recency.","volume":"73","author":"W Epstein","year":"1960","journal-title":"Am J Psychol"},{"key":"ref42","article-title":"Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness","author":"RH Thaler","year":"2009"},{"key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"197","DOI":"10.2307\/2951685","article-title":"Uncertainty aversion, risk aversion, and the optimal choice of portfolio.","volume":"60","author":"J Dow","year":"1992","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"ref44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176349830","article-title":"On the consistency of Bayes estimates.","volume":"14","author":"P Diaconis","year":"1986","journal-title":"Ann Stat"},{"key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-937X.00050","article-title":"Stochastic volatility: Likelihood inference and comparison with Arch models.","volume":"65","author":"K Sangjoon","year":"1998","journal-title":"Rev Econ Stud"},{"key":"ref46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"294","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tics.2006.05.004","article-title":"Bayesian theories of conditioning in a changing world.","volume":"10","author":"AC Courville","year":"2006","journal-title":"Trends Cogn Sci"},{"key":"ref47","article-title":"Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis. Springer Series in Statistics (Second Edition)","author":"JO Berger","year":"1980"}],"container-title":["PLoS Computational Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1001048","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,2]],"date-time":"2025-03-02T00:10:39Z","timestamp":1740874239000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1001048"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Tim","family":"Behrens","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2011,1,20]]},"references-count":47,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,1,20]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1001048","relation":{},"ISSN":["1553-7358"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1553-7358","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2011,1,20]]}}}